Has anyone seen his opening TT time? He lost over 3mins to Lance/Zabriskie in 19km.
The final TT is 55km.
Rasmussen would probably need a 10min lead to beat Lance. Hell… he’d need that just to place in the top 5!
Great climber, can’t TT for shit.
He’s got a week to learn
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I doubt if he will even finish top 10.
He will win the climber’s jersey, that’s about it
My pics in Paris:
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LA
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Ivan
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Jan
Sounds about right to me at this point, Gary. The mountains are going to continue to sort out the lesser riders. Its one thing to ride strongly for a few days…but those three are the big motors who’ll be somewhere near the front every day. If Jan didn’t crack yesterday…he’s not going to. Leipheimer and Mancebo might be picks for 4 and 5 spots…
But I DO think Rassmussen will stay top 10. The gaps will be sufficiently large between 1 and 10 that the 3-4 minutes he’ll lose on the final TT won’t drop him too far. My guess? #6.
I’d go for LA, then Basso, then Valverde. Jab Ullrich with a fork, he’s done…
Don’t forget that until his DS convinced him that he has some GC chances (yesterday or the day before), he only thought of stage wins and the polka dot. That kind of motivation could easily account for at least one minute. Moreover, I believe he will put some more time on other 2nd place contenders before the TT. Given his climbing style I cannot believe he’ll do worse in the Pyrennees.
Re. the TT at the end, a climber is likely going to do a lot better over the St Etienne TT than the pancake opening TT…lots of hills, a lot longer…besides, even though Lance will outride him quite a bit, as well as Basso and Jan and some others, recovery plays a big role and seeing how he seems to recover well from day to day, his chances look pretty good.
plus once Lance makes up the 3 minute time difference, he can try to hold on to lance’s cadance, and ride just behind him the rest of the way.
I agree also that he was probably not really going 100% in stage 1, since he assumed he was not in the running for the GC.
I doubt he will be close to challenging Lance, but try to remember back to '98 when Pantani placed 3rd in the final time trial behind Ullrich and Julich. I think the right motivation will be worth a few minutes to Rasmussen, and may even get him a podium finish.
Even more interesting will be whether or not he can hold on to the polka-dot jersey. I don’t see the big GC boys letting him go on another long point collecting break away. There are still a lot of points to be collected and someone further down in the GC may be able to take advantage and steal the jersey from him.
You’re analysis is spot on in my opinion. Thing is, in the tradition of Rasmussen’s team management, I wager they are investing their efforts only in the polka-dot jersey. They have no designs on G.C.
Is this the same St. Etienne TT than in '97? Ah, those were the days, Richard Virenque climbed a whole cat 2 climb out of the saddle…
keep in mind that EVERYONE lost about a minute or more to those two in that TT. But I agree… He won’t win. I think he’s a contender for the podium though. I think Basso will crack on one mountain stage that rassmuswsen will not. That will put Rass in a position to beat Basso - remember that Basso’s TT is not the greatest either.
what about vino?
I think he’s in a really tough spot. If I were the DS, I’d think that he has to try for a good GC placing. His current placing just 38 seconds behind Lance means he’ll only continue to get the points that Disco allows him to get. As was mentioned before, he won’t be allowed to go on another long point gathering breakaway. His shot at the polka dots is now more in the hands of Discovery than his own. So I’d try to go after something that he can have an impact on, like a high GC placing, and hope that the Polka Dots stay on his back. I agree that it’ll be very hard for him to get on the podium in Paris, but methinks that at this point he has to try.
the profile looks the same…but I am not sure it’s the same. That’s the year they were using light bikes for the climb and then switched to TT bikes.
Virenque was sure to beat Ullrich…but Ullrich actually caught him and put time on Virenque even on the climb.
Has anyone seen his opening TT time? He lost over 3mins to Lance/Zabriskie in 19km.
The final TT is 55km.
Rasmussen would probably need a 10min lead to beat Lance. Hell… he’d need that just to place in the top 5!
Great climber, can’t TT for shit.
most likely he was not putting full effort into the opening TT since he had no GC aspirations, and even less of a chance of winning the stage. there would have been no point going all-out. now, though, he is second at 38 seconds … he won’t lose 10 minutes, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost up to 5. your assessment that he “can’t TT for shit” is probably not that far off the mark - has he ever worked seriously on his TT? I think he was never really considered to be a serious GC contender.
The guy looks awfully good in the mountains. The kid makes it look easy. I wonder…can he put a hurtin’ on Lance and gain a few minutes on the other GC guys as well, to be able to hold a podium spot after the ITT?
I’m thinking Rasmussen has been playing possum a bit now… and that if he’s going to make his mark it will be in the mountains this week. The right time, the right place… if he can steal a few mins and win a stage…?
I didn’t know he dropped Basso in the Giro for a stage win… makes me think he might be able to put the hurt on Lance at the right time.
With Beltran out today… it’s going to get only tougher for Discovery to hold it together.
After thinking about if for a while I am expecting Rasmussen to perform well on Saturday and then get dropped for a couple of minutes on Sunday. Even though in the past he has been a mountain bike world champion, I don’t believe he is used to the pressure that he will be facing over the weekend. Also since he is so highly placed, if he intends to battle for a podium spot he doesn’t have the option of taking an easy day one day and going for a stage win the next; he will need to ride hard both days and I am not so sure he will be capable of handling it. Racing for a high GC placing and racing for stage wins require two completely different levels of effort and intensity.
But if I am wrong and he can can put the hurt on Lance it will make the rest of the Tour a lot more interesting and that will be a good thing.
In the TdF 2004, Rasmussen lost more than 6 minutes on the Alpe d’Huez TT; ditto on the final 55km TT.