i don’t think there’s any doubt that top triathletes can’t best top cyclists in time trials unless, of course, the race spills over into the triathlete’s wheelhouse, which is ultra long distance timed racing. however, if you take a top triathlete and, say, put him on the track and ask him to run a 10k at, say, mt. sac relays, or penn relays, he’s going to do pretty well. this, because a top ITU triathlete will step onto the track and run a 28:30, which is pretty damned good and will be very competitive.
now, will this beat a top runner? no, because the triathlete is still a minute and a half off. and what we have in the AToC are cycling’s analog to east africans. this race has an arguably better, deeper field than the giro going on at the same time (contador excepted).
i think what this means is that a rapp or a lieto or any triathlete who has bike racing skills will fare quite well against the middle of the field, not the top of the field. sure, the back third of the field is soft pedaling. but unless specifically told to soft pedal, this is a mid-packer’s opportunity to show that he deserves to be a protected rider in a future race, so i think the number of “soft pedalers” is exaggerated.
i’d expect a top long course triathlete, who’s a bike specialist, if he has good bike handling skills, to finish in the middle of the pro field, just as i’d expect a top ITU racer to hold the sport up well in a 10,000m. look here, this is the most competitive field in a 10,000m you’ll find this year on american soil. brownlee, gomez, et al, would not have finished last. this is the second flight of the 10,000, and i think a gomez or brownlee might’ve won it.
what you will never, ever, ever see, lance or no lance, is an ex pro bike racer finishing the hawaiian ironman in having posted the fastest bike split. this will never happen, unless pro bike racing is so far in that athlete’s rear view mirror that he’s really, for the majority of his professional career, been a pro triathlete (like a lieto).
no pro bike racer, after having finished a full pro bike race career, will ever be triathlon’s best bike racer. what this makes me wonder is, if a huge prize purse were put up for the purpose, who’d win a hard, hilly, 120-mile timed race. that’s a race i would love to see, and i don’t think a cyclist would win it.
