Who is going to challenge Lance this year? Ullrich? Pantani? - I just read where Pantani might join Bianchi to get a ride in the Tour. Or maybe some wildcard from nowhere?
I don’t think Pantani is going to fare well. He’s getting dropped on medium climbs in the Giro. And he appears to be riding clean now…
Lance will lose this race one day, though maybe not this year.
Who’s next to win it?
I would think that Tyler Hamilton would have to be right up there in the running. I don’t think either Pantani or Ullrich will be a major threat. Other possible wildcards: Rumsas, maybe Simoni. Both are riding very well in the Giro right now.
RP
I’m not putting all my money on Lance this year and definately not Ulrich, but will call Tyler a possibility. I’ll put my money on Team Once to win the team TT award as they have three out of the last four years.
My hope is that Lance has to slug it out with Tyler this year. Tyler is strong, but has never been able to really put together a long stage race. I can’t help thinking he is due though, if he can manage to keep the rubber on the asphalt.
It would be kind of fun to watch two Americans slug it out in France this year. This is probably too much to hope for, but I will be hoping anyway.
Now that Levi’s riding the PC’s you’ve GOT to consider him a contender! That’s surely enough to put him over the top 
Sorry- I’m in a feisty mood and thought I’d stir up the Sh%t a little.
i will be real interested to watch lance vs. simoni in the mountains. simoni is climbing unbelievably well on some real tough stages in the giro. but i think lance will torch him in the tt’s. to me simoni seems to be a slightly better version of heras–both can climb, have a weak point in tt’s. as for tyler, i don’t know if he can hang with lance in the mountains. i know tyler can climb, but he doesn’t seem to be quite as explosive as lance is…
Santiago Botero, perhaps? I am a neophyte to the cycling world, but he seemed really strong last year and is the World TT champ.
“Tyler is strong, but has never been able to really put together a long stage race.”
What about last year’s Giro???
he probably should have said that tyler has never put together a crash-free long stage race. i don’t think he will be able to really push lance if he suffers another hard crash that hinders his riding…
Aitor–Strong in TT and looked very strong at Vuelta last year.
I wonder if Tyler has what it takes to beat Lance head to head. I think he is as strong a rider (and has a much better bike:)), but will friendship take control when he has to ride away from Lance on a climb?
Dave
I just don’t think anyone in the field has the combination of drive and ability that Lance has. Not to mention his team. I think Tyler is great but I don’t think he has what it takes to take Lance head to head in the tour. If style points come into play, then with that bike and uniform Tyler would crush Lance, especially if he’s riding that gawd-awful grey thing.
This may be stating the obvious, but it really is Lance’s tour to lose, despite his camp’s spin that they approach every TDF as if its the first. No other rider can claim the full trio abilities: exceptional climbing, exceptional TT, and strong team. If you look at all the other candidates, they are lacking in one of the three areas, at least when compared to Lance. Of the contenders, Hamilton probably comes the closest, but I don’t think he’ll stick if LA puts the hammer down in the mountains. LA consistently bests Beloki in the mountains AND the TT. Botero always cracks in the mountains at least once. Simoni isn’t on the same level as the others in the TT. Gonzalez is close too but probably not in thevery top echelon of climbers. He showed a lot of grit at the Vuelta last year, but clearly wasn’t in the same ballpark as Heras and the other mega-climbers. Fasa lacks a bit in the team department also. Ullrich (and Pantani, if the reports come to fruition) will probably do some damage this year, but probably lack the full condition to seriously challenge for the GC. That team isn’t on the same level as USPS, Once or Telekom either.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m splitting hairs in the differences above. These are all great riders, and it won’t take very much at all for one of them to rise to the top of the podium. But I really think that only a turn of bad luck, be it illness, crash, or ill-timed equipment failure will unseat a TDF-trim LA and USPS. At least this year.
perfect prep, staying out of trouble during the tour, no crashes, illness or bee stings.
Good equipment well maintained, strong team mates and a little luck.
Then think about the other guy’s out there, Jan and Tyler and Marco (not that he has much cred these days but he has won it).
It is Lance’s to lose but you have to think that there is a rider out there who when presented with the oppurtunity to step up and take advantage of a moment of weakness can do so, so while I really think Lance can and will win, at some point in the future he will either have to quit before something really serious goes wrong or something will go wrong and some one else will win it as a result of a mistake or other problem.
I’d like to see Jan and Tyler give him a run for his money though, at least make life a little uncomfortable for him, it would be good racing.
I would have to agree with all of the comments. Anything can happen with crashes, illness, etc. I hope Tyler does well. It would be cool to see him go head to head with Lance.
Does anyone think that Lances marital issues may become an issue this tour!!!..That is not an easy thing to train through and keep a clear, sharp, focused mind about.
the reason i would say that his marital issues won’t be a factor is that i would bet that it is his dedication, discipline and focus on training/racing that led to some of the problems in the first place. that is speculation on my part, but it must be difficult for some of the wives of cyclists/endurance athletes to deal with the fact that the sport/race might take higher priority than family life.
I know this may open a can of worms, but if I’m not mistaken, his wife has strong religious beliefs, and as stated in SI, he doesn’t…I wonder how much that had a bearing on this, and how much his wife’s “faith” played a role in his achievements!..Just some food for thought…I hope he wins the TDF, but I have a feeling he won’t…sad to say.
I live in Austin. The lastest scoop that I’ve heard on the marital issues:
They are getting back together and his wife and family plan to be in Europe to support him during the Tour. There is an interview with Lance in the latest Outside magazine which might touch on this issue but I haven’t read it yet.
Lots of rumors here in town about what caused the split but I won’t repeat what I’ve heard bacause it’s probably b.s. anyway.
probably none… faith (especially someone elses) is an abstract notion that has no impact on Lance’s or anyones cycling performance. I have “faith” I will win the TdF… not likely to happen.
And to further open the can of worms… I heard he cheated on her.
mike
same story, different day.
-SD