I assert that there are a ‘leading 6’:
Loevseth, Matthews, Philipp, Charles-Barclay, Knibb, Derron
Have to expect the race to pan out rather close to 2025, till half way through the run.
Expect Knibb to catch LCB quicker than 12 months ago and make a proper effort to drop her. Will she overbike to do so? Will LCB overbike to stay with her (she was able to in Marbella).
Loevseth will drop the others but will need a gap ahead of all the other three to stay ahead on the run. Can she catch one or both of the rabbits?
Any dark horses who will be players 5 miles after T2?
Someone else can do the men’s stuff. I note Ironman have taken care to ensure the amateurs will not catch/affect the women’s race by starting the young bloods later in the age categories - page 33.
I think the women’s race will be Knibb doing Knibb things and then we have a few ? Marks to see what happens and if anyone can come close at the end.
Is mattews healthy ( injury)
Is LCB healthy ( post surgery)
Is lovseth ready after an illness
Is derron able to limit time to Knibb and others on the bike to have a chance to outrun them.
Is Phillips going to swim well enough to factor in.
All depend on a lot of variables except for Knibb we know she front swims , can solo bike the fastest and can run well , but will she ?
Derron in like the Patrick Langer of the women’s race. Kona might be build for her run ability to shine above all others .
Matthews’ Achilles - who knows. Can she run at 1:22 half marathon pace? LCB said she ducked 70.3 WC Nice so she could concentrate on/prepare better for Kona. In Roth she biked below par but off that slow bike, finished well with a 2:50 run (4 minutes slower run than Siffert). The only races she’s started this year are IM Lanza and Roth - very odd (given for example T100 Vancouver available). Loevseth’s illness was post Hamburg. She was firing in Nice (and rode and ran way better than I expected).
Surely Derron will swim either ahead of or with Loevseth and Matthews. She was dropped by them in Nice on the bike so I wonder if that offers an indicator for gapping on the way back from Hawi.
If Philipp loses time like she did in Nice she will struggle to catch the others (she was dropped in the last third of Nice and rode poorly in Hamburg cf Loevseth). But maybe ride with Derron. Find Your Finish Line Podcast with Mike Reilly (Allen for the men; Siddall for the women)
Babbittville: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUwzKlw1aT38
I don’t think Sam had his best swim and bike effort in nice last year but kb stayed with him and still out ran him.
I think the 20 m doesn’t effect Sam of course as he is off the front usually, but I think he learnt to hold a bit and save for later , maybe goes after the Hawi turn and attempts a better run in Hawaii.
The guy we are overlooking in MVR.
Sam has to out bike him first then KB as MVR will likely be with him at the start and Sam’s first run threat to drop .
Oh I don’t think MVR has to outrun kb possibly as he might be into t2 in top 3 with a small gap with kb a few minutes behind .
MVR will get that big front group pull which in kona saves you a lot for the first 65 km till the climb . Then he just has to pace a bit off Sam.
If I had to guess I would have
Sam first off the bike group of 2-4 within 3 min
Then group of 8 another 2-4 min and then guys staggering off that have fallen off the pace.
And the guys that fall off can’t help kb and gustav but that big group will be together for a long time .
It’s funny how essentially Knibb is such a known factor while at the same time still very much “question mark” within her Kona ability. I’d have lost a bunch of money if you would have told me a decade ago, that Knibb would still be winless at the IM WC going into her 3rd attempt (or is it 4? can’t remember). I think major kudos to the women’s depth in our sport beginning over the last half to decade time period. There are a lot of fun moving parts to the women’s races.
That’s Ironman for you. It’s why it’s a bit more fun to speculate then itu short course or 70.3 a lot can happen given the time it takes to complete the race.
I actually think it’s more specific to Kona, because that island every single year has one of the favs always blows up (last year it was the 2 W leaders) and allows someone just “steady” the whole day to pop a 4th place. I mean that’s probaly the biggest reason Knibb has not won IM yet is likely the “kona factor” imo.
I just don’t think Sam Laidlow brings it this year. That 1:05 run by KB at the 70.3 WC was a statement. I have KB for the win and I don’t really care about 2nd and 3rd. KB or bust…
For the women, Taylor’s bike form is unreal this year. I think she puts in a massive amount of time between her and Lucy on the bike and this year she actually maintains most of that lead. I think she beats Lucy by minutes and Lucy comes in 2nd. I don’t think Solveigh podiums.
The main reason Knibb has not won an Ironman is because she has not managed to run fast enough, after setting herself up for the win with her supreme swim-bike.
2023 Kona debut - did well, under control, stretch target without proper prep, and really slowed down in the final third (3:05, #4) Sensibly did not expect to win
2025 Texas - Matthews rode within a minute and Knibb ran slow (3:04) after being caught (#2)
2025 Kona - overbiked, possibly, and ran at a target 2:55 pace, until 30km. Had a 6 minute lead on Loevseth at T2; was being caught by Loevseth by Palani, with or without the collapse.
2026 Texas - Had a minute’s lead on Loevseth at T2 (lost 2 mins on the bike so presume underbiked) and ran 5 minutes slower but a PB 2:54 (#2)
