Who still thinks triathlon is recession proof

[cerveloguy]

This was a topic of conversation several months ago. I was surprised that some people thought that triathlon would be unaffected by the economy and was particularly surprised they thought high end bike sales would remain high.

Well it appears that high end car sales are way down. Porsche salesman was listed recently of one of the top ten jobs not to have at the moment since sales are tanking. Also reading Slowman’s poll and a full 73% say they have been affected by the “R” word, with 13% being badly affected.

Obviously triathlon will still be here, but I personally doubt that this is going to be a growth period for the sport over the next two or three seasons.

Let’s hear a counter argument from the optimists.

[Reservoir_Cat]

This is funny because I just wanted to post a very similar question. I perused the thread you referenced and there were many with a “doesn’t affect me” attitude less than a year ago.

Personlly, I still have a great job with salary and benefits intact but when I see my peers losing their jobs or taking pay cuts it really puts a damper on my enthusiasm for conspicuous consumption. Speaking of which: today the January same store sales were published in the WSJ - - when the high end folks like Saks are doing poorly, that means the uppercrust are cutting back.

Now, while I do own lots of pricey tri gear…I still don’t own a car and I’m pretty sure I’ve never shopped at Saks. I have however frequented cheaper neighborhood groceries (I live in Chicago so that is easily done), rather than go to Whole Wallet. I personally am no worse off on paper but I am concerned and I am definitely cutting back with fewer races this year and less “destination” racing. I figure you never know what tomorrow will bring and I’ve seen some crazy stuff happening recently.

[Former_User]

I’ll bet there are still lineups at IMC for the 2010 race and at the race, people will stay in overpriced hotels, ride expensive bikes and generally ignore the “disasterous” economy.

Any takers?

[Tom_Demerly]

Recession proof? Yes. To a substantial degree.

Concern proof? Certainly not.

Tonight my wife and I are taking clothing to people at a local homeless shelter (housed in a Catholic school) here in a suburb of Detroit. Last night she worked there as a volunteer assisting with meals, etc. The school has turned one of its gymnasiums into an ad-hoc shelter. The people she found in the shelter were not what one may expect in a homeless shelter. They are former auto workers who lost their homes. They are skilled trades. One man cared for horses.

The recession is real and it is serious and it pervades every level of our economy. A friend of mine is a pilot for Net Jet, a “time share” fractional ownership company that flies business jets. He’s also a triathlete living in the Ann Arbor area, nice guy too. He says people are bailing on their fractional ownership deals citing the economy. OK, we’re talking about *people who fly in business jets. *He mentioned that when a preson with a net worth of $20 Million goes down to $10 Million they feel threatened despite the fact that $10 Million is still a very wealthy person.

The fact of the matter is the economy is in distress, took a while to get there, and will take a while to get back. No one is utterly “unaffected”. We’re all affected. To deny that is not realistic.

I do believe people will maintain some discretionary budget for their healthy interests, their pasttimes that can be rationalized. People will forego a new car, a new house, a boat, an expensive trip and perhaps rationalize some new exercise equipment and/or participation in local fitness events. Will this year be huge? I doubt it. Will it be some kind of financial disaster? I doubt that too. I think from an industry perspective it will likely be rather lackluster- likely no real gains in sales but also no catastrophic contrations.

[Reservoir_Cat]

I agree - - but I think Cerveloguy was referring to the constant growth pattern that Triathon has exhibited in the past. Do you think those folks lining up for the IM’s will also be buying as many new bikes as they have in the past? Will new races continue to crop up to cater to the ever-expanding popularity of triathlon.

My humble opinion - - and I think I’m being optimistic - - is that it will flatten. All of the retailers and consultants and race directors whose careers depend on the sport might be impacted with less revenue. I’m thinking attendance at expensive week-long triathlon camps might also go down a bit. I don’t think it will disappear…but some negative growth might be on the horizon.

It would be interesting if some of the high-end bike shop and tri-gear shop owners on this forum would comment on what they’ve seen.

[gmellish]

Look at all the IM community slots still available–people are cutting back. As a PhD economist for 43 years I have never been so concerned about the state of the economy. Even where incomes and wealth have not dropped, people are being more conservative. I am registered for 2 IM races next year. Normally I would lock in my accommodations early—this year I am not doing so because I believe there will be lots of late availability. There will be very few people not affected by this economic downturn.

[Reservoir_Cat]

Of course I posted hoping a bike shop owner would comment and there you were.

[gamebofh]

My wife wouldn’t be nearly as concerned if she didn’t know what
a jerk I am at work, so she has decided savings is a good thing.

Honestly, without the recession I’d be looking at one or two expensive
mountain bikes. With it my wife is looking at some house stuff, but
on a budget.

Xterra will probably wait at least 6 months.

-Jot

[Tri-Mom64]

a race director perspective:
Our club’s June sprint tri did take a bit longer to fill for 2009, but that may be because we had to move to a new venue after 15 years rather than the economy.
Our old venue was among the state parks closed a few months ago by our famous ex-governor here in Illinois. I think it would be fun to have a caricature of him on our race shirts this year, but some in our club think that would be in poor taste!
As for our July Oly race, registration seems to be just a little behind where it was a year ago.
Entry fees are unchanged from 08 and we’re doing a discount/no-shirt option for the first time to help keep the fees reasonable.
Will probably also poll the local tri club to see how many of them would be willing to offer home stays to help people save a few bucks - we’ve done this on a small scale in the past and it seems to go over well.

[Tom_Demerly]

“My humble opinion - - and I think I’m being optimistic - - is that it will flatten.”

---

I agree with that assessment.

Now, there are a few race promoters in our area (Michigan) that disagree. There is a new series of weeknight triathlons on Wednesday nights here at a local metropark sponsored by Running Fit running store and produced by race promoter and runner Randy Step. Three new triathlons on the calender, sprint distance, P.M. (after work) start times, low entry fees. They are called the Triceratops Triathlon, Pterodactyl Triathlon and T-Rex Triathlon.
http://www.runtrextri.com/

Additionally, we have hometown hero Sheila Toarmina producing several all new events including a new women’s only race and an interesting multi-leg triathlon like Survival of the Shawagunks (swim/run/swim/run/bike/swim/bike/run).

http://www.estevents.com/

These are all new races in addition to an already very full calendar. This activity would suggest there are optimists out there who feel you and I may not be right, and that this year will be a growth year for the sport. These race organizers are putting their events out there to show there is a demand for them.

Here’s our calendar for the year, more full than any previous year:
http://www.bikesportmichigan.com/races/index.shtml

  **Date** **Title** **Time** **Location** **Register**  Mar. 29 Naval Special Warfare TRIWEST 

SUPERFROG / SUPERSEAL Triathlon
7:00 am EST
SUPERFROG
9:00 am EST
SUPERSEAL Coronado, CA April 4 Indoor Tri 7:00 am EST Toledo, Ohio April 19 Dooby Du 8:30 am EST Toledo/ Berkey, Ohio May 17 XTERRA Last Stand at Fort Custer 9:00 am EST Battle Creek, MI May 30 Seahorse Challenge 8:00 am EST Climax, MI June 7 Bikesport Ann Arbor Tri/Du 8:00 am EST Pinckney, MI - Halfmoon Lake June 14 Motor City Triathlon 8:00 am EST Belle Isle
Detroit, MI
June 21 Maumee Bay Triathlon & Duathlon 8:00 am EST Oregon, OH June 21 XTERRA Bikesport Torn Shirt Trail 8:00 am EST Brighton, MI June 24 Triceratops Tri 6:30 pm EST Brighton, MI Event Website June 28 She Rocks! Triathlon/Duathlon 8:00 am EST Waterloo Recreation Area
Waterloo, MI July 5 Caesar Creek Triathlon & Duathlon
8:00 am EST Waynesville,Ohio July 12 Bikesport Waterloo Tri/Du 8:00 am EST Grass Lake, MI - Big Portage Lake July 19 Bikesport Clark Lake Tri/Du 8:30 am EST Clark Lake, MI July 26 Bikesport Women’s Only Tri/Dri-Tri 7:30 am EST Sylvania, Ohio July 27 Pterodactyl Tri 6:30 pm EST Brighton, MI Event Website Aug. 1 Whirlpool Ironman 70.3 Steelhead Triathlon 7:00 am EST Benton Harbor, MI Aug. 2 East Fork Triathlon and Duathlon 8:00 am EST Bethel, Ohio Aug. 8
Sylvania SuperKids Tri/Du 7:30 am EST Sylvania, Ohio Aug. 9 Bikesport Sylvania Tri/Du 7:30 am EST Sylvania, Ohio Aug. 16 Battle of Waterloo 8:00 am EST Waterloo Recreation Area
Waterloo, MI Aug. 19 T-Rex Tri 6:30 pm EST Brighton, MI Event Website Aug. 23 Great Buckeye Challenge 8:00 am EST
Springfield, OH Aug. 29 Bikesport Grosse Ile Duathlon 8:00 am EST Grosse Ile, MI Aug. 30 He Tried/She Tried Triathlon/Duathlon 7:00 am EST - Men

9:00 am EST - Women Kensington Metro Park
Milford, MI
Sept. 6 Portage Lakes Triathlon and Duathlon 8:00 am EST Akron , Ohio Nov. 27 Smoke the Turkey 5K Run/Fitness Walk 9:00 am EST Toledo, Ohio

[Fleck]

I addressed this topic in a Blog post back in November:

http://stevefleck.blogspot.com/2008/11/tri-business-in-troubled-times.html

My stance and view has remained more or less the same. It’s shifted slightly to a more cautious approach with continued not great news elsewhere, but still a number of good news stories in the triathlon business.

My sense is that we will not really get a good idea of what the full impact will be, until we get through to the mid point of this year and the retail season in North America is in full swing. Then we will have a better idea of where things are really at.

[dkennison]

I agree with most of your comments however at our local gym, the rush of “New Years Resolution” participants is not slowing down. In fact more new people keep coming in. We are used to the influx in January as well as the quick exit. This year, people seem to be focused on a monthly exercise programs rather than eating out or going shopping.

Personaly, My wife and son are working out with me. My wife is talking about doing a Sprint for the first time. We are cooking “healthy” at home rather than eating out all the time. My Tri freinds are working out harder than ever. Seem healthy diversions might be the answer for a lot of people. I hope so.

[Tom_Demerly]

We’re seeing greater turn out at our gym also. It did stay beyond the typical New Year’s crowd, but then again, it’s still early…

[devashish_paul]

I think too many people have their heads in the sand…of course the recession will affect triathlon…well, if it didn’t affect triathlon, my plane ticket for St. Croix and hotel would be booked already…and since it is not that means less money being spent at that race on event related expenses, including, but not limited to entry.

Is an airfare to St. Croix or Europe to somewhere else “impact on triathlon”? I say it is. And certainly new bikes and goodies will wait. How many are going to drop money on $5K bike without a job or fear of not having one?

[Former_User]

I have been holding off on some things that I would usually book far in advance because I am convinced that there will be more availabilty this summer than usual for those who wait and there will be better deals. I do not think I am alone. Just cause things are going well for me there is no reason I should not try to get the best deal on things possible.

[pennib]

**“…my plane ticket for St. Croix and hotel would be booked already…and since it is not that means less money being spent at that race on event related expenses, including, but not limited to entry” **

I think you kind of hit the nail on the head…plane tickets, hotels, etc. I think that is where we will see the biggest impact this year - big destination races. Of course, I’m still doing two of them myself, but that’s all, and they are generally not that expensive. I also think we’ll see people putting off the fancy wheel and bike upgrades this year and making due with what they have.

As a race director with a primarily local clientele I think we will see some drop off but I suspect that keeping costs in line and continuing to offer a good local event will keep attendance at a reasonable level. I haven’t started to do my advertising push yet because all of may events are later in the summer/fall but I am seeing some figures tracking slightly ahead of where we were last year at this time.

I also think that the race director who is sensitive to the economy and does not cut corners but makes some wise choices that enable them to continue their events will come out the other side. Those who are frivolous may not be so lucky.

[B.McMaster]

Not many things can grow as fast as triathlon has, so it may not be the recession that will slow the growth. Personally, As others have stated, I think there will be less travel to races, i.e. St. Croix, but the local races will do fine as will the full ironman races (there are just to few). As an example, NYC (local race for a lot of people) filled up in less than 15 minutes and opened at midnight on Halloween. Ridgefield - A sprint sold out in less than a week. Florida 70.3 still has slots and its in Disney. Destination races may not sell out, local races will do fine. If we get lucky, the recession may reduce the price of the races…But I guess we will see what happens when the 2010 races start opening as most of the big 2009 races were sold out before all of the really bad economic news.

[endofempire]

This was simply a republican talking point before the election. “Recession? What recession? This is a recession of the mind.” etc etc.

Now that the election is over no need to pretend anymore.

[spinderello]

the economy has gotten so bad that you can’t even sell your new equipment for 80% cost. namely bikes, wheels, and computers. how is a man supposed to sell his overpriced christmas presents??

[cervelorider]

I think that you are right in that the big name events will still be hard to get into, however more folks will be riding older expensive bikes (not as many new ones) and the prices for hotel rooms will continue to be fluid with the demand. However I do see growth in the sport to be flat for a while and tons of sales in the Fall of 2009 on new tri gear that did not sell in the Spring and Summer. If there is going to be any real impact in the sport with the current economic situation I think it will be seen in the 2010 season. Tim