I know that’s no simple question, depends on what one prefers, luck and and and.
But anyway, who hasn’t checked and calculated the chances at different events yet?
It would be interesting to see what others think about the issue. Not talking lottery here:-)
My guess would be one of the US races… Wisconsin or Florida
Canada? Not many blokes want to do an Ironman 6 weeks later so the rolldown can be generous. I hear malaysia can be generous depending on the year. Thing to think about also is the minute someone sees a race had a “weak” qualifying field, the following year can get a surge in hopefulls.
Malaysia…
this year, there were more slots than people racing…all those who wanted to go to Kona got a slot. ALL of them
At IMC it really depends on the year and then on the competitivmess in the age-group in question, so you now have two variables that you can’t control or have no real idea of what’s going on going in. Some years there are good roll-down opportunities at IMC. Other years not. Some years the competition in your age-group might be stacked, other years not so competitive.
In theory, 6 weeks out would reduce the numbers, but I seem to recall hearing that it really does not. If you train/race smart doing IMC and then IMH 6 weeks later can actually work out well. However, this does require a great deal of thought and commitment, and then you never know when things can go wrong along the way.
The best approach is to have a general idea of the time that you would need to do and then have the best race that you can on race day.
Fleck
CErtainly not in Europe if you are male between 25-50, unless you can sub 10 everytime. Also, because of last year’s contra temp (sp?) between the organisers and WTC I would guess that Malaysia will be very well attended.
Go to Ironmanlive.com under the section Who qualified for Kona, this will give you an idea of time splits in every qualifier…