What FTP can be expected from the average Joe?

I’m bringing up the dead with this thread but it came up when looking at 4w/kg.

Fwiw I started riding 1.5 years ago. First year was 666 miles, yes, mark of the beast. This year? Trying for 4000 by year end. May make it with a pair of centuries in Dec.

I do my numbers in 20min because that’s the plans I follow for my zones. For me 95% is about dead on from doing long hard hour intervals a couple weeks after a test. As a change over time it’s still same change.

Started: 185w and 82.3kg or 2.24
Last week’s test and weigh in: 255w and 74.8kg or 3.4

I can stand to get to 70kg no issue. I don’t see reaching 270w by next years first race too hard. That would be at 3.85 in 2 years from nothing. 3.65 for the hour folks. On 5-6hrs a week. That’s literally nothing against a traditional LSB approach. I’d say a legit hour 4.0 could be done on 6-7hrs a week and within 4 years of riding, from nothing.

But you better get used to some punishing intervals.

I say swap to the hour for stronger than Cat 4. That fitness is very applicable to the race length. Many 5 and 4s race 90min. How is an hour really helpful there? For 3 and faster or tri? Yup, hour.

I’m mostly doing the Time Crunched Cyclist plans when more organized.

Among seasoned riders who train and race, 4w/kg can be very “meh” depending on your region. A flat uncompetitive area a 4w/kg could be god like as the rider is like 75 to 80kg and the competition is lax. Mountain areas like Asheville or California? Not special. A 4.0 may be a min to not get dropped as a 4.

I’ll also throw out that your power profile matters. Having a 4.0 in Tri isn’t the same as a RR 4.0 isn’t the same as a crit 4.0.

So having a 4.0 means very different things in different races.