Save for some crash, could he do it in the remaining stages, especially the TT?
50/50
.
I would not be that optimistic. Basically, he can do this only during the Time Trial. The stage tomorrow is hilly but unless Basso has a bad day, Ullrich will not gain time on him (maybe lose some…depends as he is still improving his shape…which is well…nonsense…Lance and Basso were 100% at the start, Ullrich will be at the end…).
During the TT, Ullrich had put a bit more than 3’ on Virenque in 1997…My guess is that he will put about 2’ on Basso, a lot more on Rasmussen and he will take 3rd.
As Francois said, the chances are pretty slim that he’ll get above Basso on the podium. Ulrich should just concentrate on Rasmussen and putting as much time into him as possible. Problem is Rasmussen starts the ITT after Ulrich, but I doubt if Rasmussen has the jets to finish the ITT in time to stay on the podium.
I say better than 50/50 2 to 1, Ullrich catches basso in the itt.
Basso’s TTing has come up over the last couple years, so I doubt Uhlrich will put that much time into him. No longer the bride’s maid…
I don’t think Ullrich can do it. For the remainder of the Tour Basso will be riding to maintain 2nd and keep this from happenning. I just hope Ullrich can get 3rd. I’d love to see a podium with Armstrong, Basso, and Ullrich.
None.
Basso’s TT’ing is improved, and Der Kaiser isn’t the Ulrich of old. He has admitted defeat, and is riding for 3rd, at best.
Basso will put more time into him tomorrow.
If Basso keeps riding that crappy Cervelo, I’d give Jan 3 to 1 ;).
jameshinton,
This question can easily be answered with three words. Slim and none!
Ulrich is good, very good in fact, but Basso is no slouch. The time difference is too great unless there is a significant event that occurs, i.e., crash or withdrawal for medical reasons.
crappy Cervello? They can ship that P3C my way anytime.
Not forgetting Basso is not the same Time Trialist he was last year, He took out an ITT at the Giro this year. The first ITT he didn’t do that well but not that badly either. He may have been more tired than the rest from the Giro and was just recoverd from stomack problems too. So depending on his form he may easily out TT Ullrich. And that crappy Cervello won’t be doing him any harm either.
Zero, but 2:49 on Rasmussen is likely.
Dave in VA
Chicken is not a factor for the podium. He shouldn’t have shot off his mouth.
Yeah, I bet he loses 4 mins to Ulli during the final TT; however, I have to admit that I was impressed on how well he came back on the last climb on Sunday.
Dave in VA
Yes it was a valiant effort. But he’s hardly the man to beat Lance as he claimed. If he hadn’t spewed the words at least he wouldn’t have to eat them. A big head is extra weight in climbs and less aerodynamic too. Little man syndrome?
Could be a good chance. The ITT’s have been the one place in recent Tour’s that Ullrich has really shown his best form. Could go either way though. After his performance to date he could be super determined to absolutly go for it for the Stage win in St. Etienne crushing all others, or he could just do what he needs to do to maintan his current standing. There certainly is enough motivation for the former - move up onto the podium, beat Armstrong in his final head-to-head race against him, personal pride etc . .
Fleck
I agree with Fleck. Jan has a ton of motivation for the ITT. Beat Lance, stop Lance from winning a stage, 3rd on podium, and if Basso is not careful (see Fignon) he could take him. He was definitelty hurt in the prolouge, and has just gotten stronger since his crash.
I think that Jan is going to put 3:20 on Basso in the final TT. He got Basso by 18 seconds in the first TT and Jan was just lucky to be alive after the accident the day before. Did you see the rear window of the car? A few years ago in Palm Springs I saw a guy go through a rear window and he was a fucking mess on the side of the road. It takes a lot of force to go through safety glass. Jan is feeling better and Basso is going to play it safe.
It would be cool to see him go after the 10,6,2 second bonuses at the sprints like he did in 2003 trying anything to catch LA.
-SD
from cyclingnews.com Rasmussen aiming for good time trial
Jan Ullrich has said that taking third place from Rabobank’s Michael Rasmussen is now his goal in this Tour. The Dane is not about to hand over a podium slot, though, and will be looking extend his 2’49 lead in the next few days, if possible.
Even if he doesn’t increase his buffer, Rasmussen is relatively confident that he can pull out a good ride. “I’ve never had the pressure on me for a time-trial, so I never pushed myself to ride well in them,” he told Dutch TV. “Now it’s different and I know I will be able to perform well on Saturday. Tomorrow, I worry about tomorrow and the day after about that day. I have almost three minutes to the fourth place; the course on Saturday suits me very well.”
Rasmussen’s team director Erik Breukink was quoted in an interview with De Telegraaf as saying, “The parcours of the time trial in St-Etienne is far from flat. On Saturday, Michael has nearly three minutes on Ullrich to play with. I don’t know if it’s enough, but I’m certainly convinced that he can do a very good time. There are still other chances.”
Breukink also commented on Rasmussen’s future in the team - whether he would become Rabobank’s main GC rider ahead of Denis Menchov, who is having a poor Tour this year, and has been sick. “Menchov remains our most important classification rider,” said Breukink. "I don’t see Rasmussen becoming someone who can fight for yellow. This year, the parcours was in his favour. If there was, like normal, a long, flat, time trial before the mountains, he would have lost five or six minutes.
“I don’t think that he can win back a lot of time, à la Ivan Basso, through training specifically for the time trial. Rasmussen should keep his focus on where he can shine: that is climbing. I compare him to Richard Virenque. The mountains classification is made for him and therefore he has to race aggressively. Virenque also won nearly every year and ended close enough to the top riders in the Tour. Believe me, Virenque worked on his time trialling for many years but couldn’t make any progress.”