What are my chances? (1)

My first marathon is November 7th. My goal is to break 3 hours. My secondary goal is to BQ (3:10). I have run two open HM with 1:37 (2008 Indy Mini) and 1:25 (2009 Indy Mini) results. I have run two HM at the end of a half-ironman distance triathlon with 1:55 and 1:38 as the result. My focused marathon training started the last week of July with 36 miles. I have completed a 58 mile running week, and I am in the midst of a 62 mile running week. I will peak at 70 miles, and I will hit this type of mileage at least 3 times before November. I don’t have my training log in front of me, so I can’t tell you for sure. My long run will be 24 miles. I am following a modified Pfitzinger plan. I have no injuries other than fairly sore feet at the end of my 3 week training blocks.

Recent runs of note: 13.1 miles in 1:25:49 in the middle of training week on September 2nd (2nd longest run of the week);18 miles in 2:15:55 on September 4th (longest run of the week); 15 miles in 1:54:57 on September 13 (2nd longest run of the week)

Upcoming training races: 5K+ 15 miles for my long run on Saturday; 30K on September 27th; 2 15K races in October

What do you folks think? Am I on the right track?

Thanks

Yeah, looks about right. You should have no trouble with the open BQ time (3:10), but you will have to run a smart race to break 3. But, yes, I’d say you are “on track”.

Wow. Those are impressive times. In my humble but accurate opinion, you should be fine.

i would try to get your half marathon time to around 1:22:00 before you decide to go for sub 3, if you follow pfitz closely though, you will improve a lot, you just are not going to be able to swim and bike much
.

There are a few things that I believe can possibly stop you from reaching your goal:

  1. Injury
  2. Fatigue on race day due to overtraining.
  3. Getting hit by a bus.

IMHO, i think the best thing you can do is continue your training, but don’t push any workouts that don’t feel right and don’t do more than whats on the schedule.

you will BQ unless something happens. if you go out too fast, you wont crack 3 so keep it in check. based on the training I did when I was on a streak of sub 3s, I would say that you llook good, if you dont crack 3, you will be damn close…unless something gets screwed up.

Thanks for the review. I will keep on this track and report back.

Would taking the first 13.1 of the marathon out in 1:31:XX and trying to bring it home in 1:29:XX be a sound strategy for my times? I’m still trying to work out my race strategy. I appreciate any experience and advice you may have.

Well, today wasn’t the day for my sub 3 performance. Took out the first 13.1 right on track in seconds under 1:29ish. I didn’t have the stamina, strength, or endurance to persevere through the stout winds in Indy today on the back half. Brought it home in 1:38ish. My total time was 3:07:43. Good enough for a BQ, but sub 3 will have to wait until another day. I’m am pleased with my effort and performance, and it gives me more experience for the next one. Have a great day everybody!

Congrats on BQ’ing. You gonna run Boston?

Get in the zone, get alot of rest before the race, and kick some ass. You put in all the training, so you shouldn’t be worried about that. Just pace yourself and have a great race.