I can’t think of a single good reason why Webb shouldn’t be Obama’s or Hillary’s top choice for VP. A red-state senator with an independent streak; decorated war hero with family members presently serving; oodles of Washington and military leadership credentials (including service to the Reagan administration); tough, outspoken (reference his exchange with President Bush over Webb’s son); satisfies the “experienced white Christian male” requirement. From what little I know about Webb, he appears to be a McCain-like candidate that could win over some fence-sitters.
Don’t overrate the value of VA as a red state. Politically it is VERY divided along a north/south line. VA around the beltway is a high population growth region and primarily democratic. The southern rural areas that are more resource based are still solidly conservative. The mid state, where I live, has become very much a swing ground. Not only that, consider the last two governors have been Democrats, so the core redness is diminishing.
While Webb carried NoVa, even with his military background he did not do very well in Norfolk - so cause for concern about his cred with the military. Also, George Allen shot himself in the foot a few times on the campaign, which benefited Webb in the central swing region - the maccacca momment, tackling portestors, and a few other stupid things.
I think it would also hurt Obama from the “experience” point given Webb is also a first term Junior Senator. He may be a better choice for Clinton.
Would he be a bad choice - probably not, but by no means a golden boy on the ticket.
I think it would also hurt Obama from the “experience” point given Webb is also a first term Junior Senator. He may be a better choice for Clinton.
I love it when people operate on the false assumption that because she claims to be experienced, it must be true. Neither one have any experience to the point where it would be reasonable to require it of a VP candidate in one case but not the other.
The real issue here is appeal and turning purple states blue. This guy is as close to a John McCain as the Democrats will ever find, and if the anti-Hillary crowd is on the fence between the remaining two - what a confused bunch we are! - he may bring all that independents and moderate Democrats love about McCain without the baggage of a Bush-endorsed 100-more-years-in-Iraq Republican.
I* love it when people operate on the false assumption that because she claims to be experienced, it must be true*
**
You are operating on the assumption here that people actually critically review any of this stuff. Obama has been heavily painted as inexperienced in the current campaign, and you can bet that will continue if he were to win the nomination. This is way more about “perception” rather than reality - becasue that is often about the depth that many voters go to. (yeah, I have a pretty low view of the bulk of voting population, but given the effectiveness of sound bite negative ads, I think I am justified) So if the Repubs could push the two first term senator issue, and keep that perception in the forefront of political mudslinging. They would have a harder time doing that with Clinton, who is perceived to be more experienced, even if much of that experience was acquired as first lady and not an elected official.
I don’t disagree Webb could bring some value to a ticket, especially a sa cross-over republican, but then again, what about Richardson as someone who could consolidate the Latin vote for Obama? And remember, in VA, Webb made very little inroads into traditionally conservative areas, and really won on the basis of a densly populated demographic shift in the north of the state. He didn’t swing the state, population shift is already dong that. I really don’t necessarily see him having much that much pull in other swing red states, but I am sure people are out there polling that type of thing already. There was a chunk of talk about this after his rebuttal to the SOTU address, but talk seems to have died down lately.
Your post is funny to me. It could be the first time EVER in the history of the country that someone is certain who the Vice-Presidential candidate is when it is far from certain who the Presidential candidate is. Maybe Webb should quick throw his name in the pot! He might get promoted as he likely is better than either of those other two.
Bernie
Richardson would be the better bet for the reasons you gave PLUS a wealth of experience.
Obama has been heavily painted as inexperienced in the current campaign, and you can bet that will continue if he were to win the nomination.
You don’t think that charge will be made of Hillary as well in the general election? It should be a major talking point for the Republicans. Trust me, the slim margin of advantage she has over Obama will evaporate against McCain in the general.
what about Richardson as someone who could consolidate the Latin vote for Obama?
Would Obama stand to lose their vote in the general, in states where it matters? I don’t know. He would be another name on my short list, both for Hillary and Obama. If you were looking to the larger pool of voters - the McCain independents and democrats - I would probably go with Webb over Richardson, though. On paper, he’s wonderful. On the stump, he’s a disaster.
And don’t underestimate the value that a combat-boot wearing, decorated white Christian American war hero brings to a ticket burdened with rumors of anti-Americanism and Islamic sympathies. Obama needs a little of Webb’s yin to his “new kind of politician” yang, and Richardson doesn’t bring it.
All interesting points, I agree.
I agree the experience issue will be there for both potential candidates, I just think it will be a bit harder to make it stick on Clinton from a perception standpoint. Personally, I think experience as defined is vastly overrated - I don’t think anyone has experience for the quantum leap in scope and responsiblity for President, unless they were an incumbent running for re-election. No candiate has a solid lock on policy experience that transcends both national and international issues. But what do I know, I am just a transplanted Canadian watching all of this.
As to Webb on the stump - well he could be problematic there. He is notoriously known for being a straight talker, not one to mince words, and could pose issues for staying on message and not being a loose cannon at this level of politics. Not exactly your baby kissing, glad handing type for the trail. The straight talk could be useful, but it is so easy to cross lines.
Like I said, I don’t think he would be a bad candidate, but by no means is necessarily a golden boy for either ticket.
The guy is a loose cannon. It is hard to picture anyone trusting him with the VP slot.
Richardson is the guy. He has serious credentials. The one bright spot of an otherwise disastrous campaign is that he showed he will abandon his principals and say whatever it takes to tow the line necessary to win. He morphed overnight from a serious, experienced and thoughtful candidate to a whacko leftie. He wasn’t very good at it, but that is a man you can count on in the number two slot.
I agree that Obama’s going to go with Richardson. He needs to shore up his weakness with the Hispanic voting bloc.
However, were Webb running for the presidency against anybody but McCain, he’d have my vote. The reasons for me are obvious.
T.
The guy is a loose cannon.
How so? I can’t say I’ve heard anything that would support that opinion, but I haven’t scoured his public record to form an fully educated opinion, either (that was sort of the point of this thread anyhow).
I am not a Webb expert, but he pretty much dislikes everyone from Ronald Reagan on, with the exception of himself. He is the kind of guy that when he met Bush who inquired how his son was doing, rebuffed the president and refused to answer with anything other than an insult.
There are a lot of Webbisms out there. This is not a guy with the temperament to be President.
Then again, maybe McCain isn’t either, but at least he has gone through the humbling experience of running for President, which has a way of making one grow up.
Like McCain, there is a lot to like about Webb, and a lot to dislike as well.
I don’t know if I’d characterize his answer to the president’s question as insulting (although Bush’s response certainly was, and was intended as such), but I get what you’re saying. It won’t surprise you that I don’t find that episode particularly upsetting, and not just because it was directed at Bush. I appreciate that kind of directness, although it may not be the ideal temperament for a president.
Then again, maybe McCain isn’t either, but at least he has gone through the humbling experience of running for President, which has a way of making one grow up.
Personally, I much preferred the 2000 pre-South Carolina McCain - the one I voted for - to the “grown up” version. Political sodomy certainly is a humbling experience when you’re on the receiving end, but not one I’d like to see inflicted on anyone, and nothing I’d tout as a character-building exercise. Perhaps I like Webb because I see a little of the old McCain in him.
He’s sure to appeal to the Democrat female voters with items like this article he wrote about women in the military back in 1979:
http://www.washingtonian.com/articles/mediapolitics/2182.html *
Of course, he’s all for it now that he’s a Democrat.
*They’ll especially like the part about Bancroft Hall being a “horny woman’s dream.”
My bet is on Richardson for Sec of State. He likes being a diplomat.
Good point.
If you want to know more about the complex character that lies within Webb, McCain (and Oliver North, James Poindexter and Robert McFarlane) you should read “The Nightengale’s Song,” by Robert Timberg. I highly recommend it. Their lives intersected more than a few times in the past. If I remember correctly, McCain and North were also fierce combatants against each other in a few Naval Academy boxing tournaments and matches.
T.
Is there any evidence that this sort of vp calculus ever works? One bit that struck me as valid was Barack would never appoint HIllary, the thinking being that the people who won’t vote for a black and those that won’t vote for a woman would find common ground. The little I know of Webb I like (that exchange with W is classic) but if bettin’ I’d go with Richardson, I think the west, particularly Colorado, are in play in November and maybe Richardson would help. Again don’t know if this sort of thing ever works out.
I tried to come up with an example where a vp choice actually improved a ticket (Washington/Adams ?) but really couldn’t. However, I did come up with a choice that was so bad it almost lost the election – Bush/Quayle. The Quayle/Benson debate (generously so named) came about as close to sinking a campaign as any. Ed Muskie? Thomas Eagleton? You can certainly screw up your 1st decision as the nominee.
Agreed, though I think he’ll still go with Richardson. The error in it would be if Obama mistakes Richardson as being representative of ALL Hispanics or Latinos, which he most certainly is not. South Florida Cubans are a far different voting bloc than are Puerto Ricans in New York. Or Hispanics in the Southwest.
T.
The error in it would be if Obama mistakes Richardson as being representative of ALL Hispanics or Latinos, which he most certainly is not.
Now what would make you think Obama would generalize Richardson as a typical Hispanic person?
