It’s bad timing, more so in that we aren’t a championship status sport, and the ncaa could simply close shop on gaining it. But being that all these emerging sports are female sports they won’t because it would look bad.
I don’t think olympic sports are in trouble then they have been in the past. I think the difference is going to be in how the olympic sports are supported on your campus (IE- D1 program supported at D3 level). Plenty of schools have cut plenty of programs in the past…sometimes the “threat” of ending a program suddenly gets a huge influx of cash from the supporters and sometimes it doesn’t and sports are cut.
What’s interesting is that while ncaa tri has a major recruiting issue with lack of HS athletes, what the new roster cap limits mean is that there are even bigger opportunity to recruit single sport swimmers into the sport now more than ever. Swimming is going to be one of the toughest hit sports because many more athletes are “walk ons” and produce than likely on scholarship. So it means there is going to be more D1 swimmers swimming at lower level D1 or D2 now more than ever. So when 1 door is sorta closed, there’s always another door to open if your paying attention. XC programs still have track to put kids in more easily than swimming does. Like 30 roster cap is going to change the recruiting requirements of all the big boys now. Now being multievent versatile is more important than single event dominance, and remember Diving is part of that roster number. So in reality it’s more like 24-26 swimmers and 4-6 divers.
College athletics is one of the biggest drivers of enrollment for most universities. Most universites aren’t the academia gold that the Ivy’s or MIT etc are. Those schools could close up sports today and still fill their school w/ academic focused students only. But the majority of schools use college athletics as a huge enrollment factor in paying the bills.
So I think the biggest change is that your going to likely see less overall money for the “olympic” sports once it’s figured out with title ix ramifications. Good news for most sports like swimming / running and tri. Most kids are academic high achievers so they generally can get academic money if some (or all) of the athletic scholarships are lost.
I’ve been in recruiting now for 3 years. The biggest thing I’ve learned from parents truly isn’t that they want a free ride to college. It’s they actually want an program that benefits their kid and gives them structure. Most families recognize “full scholarship” doesn’t happen in olympic sports, so they aren’t “holding out” and playing school vs school. For the most part if they can get 1/8th of the yearly cost paid for, they’ll gladly accept that. With the cost of college these days, you can’t “waste” any time or classes, and the structure of college athletics (IE keeping them away from making “bad” choices while sitting in their dorm all hours of the day) a lot of parents see it as a good thing.
So I and most people I talk with don’t think it’s necessarily the end of olympic sports or non-rev sports. Just that it’s now going to be much different than what most are used too. Again will there be casualities, yes of course. But I don’t think we’ll see massive olympic sports dropped from college campuses. You’ll just see a shift in how they are ran. Essentially this is going to make high academic profile for HS athletes even more important.
One advantage that ncaa tri has over almost every other sport on college campuses. It’s one of the cheapest sports because it has such few competition dates (min of 4 max of 7…it’s actually 6 but the postseason event doesn’t count). Travel budget for that is just not as expensive as other sports and for the most part even adding the expense of bikes + trainer room setup, it’s actually fairly affordable. Now if you are a school that is stuck in middle of no where with no teams to compete locally your “travel budget” means you now have a bullesye on you. Schools in the carolinas and south area and midwest are at a huge advantage for the most part because they can drive to every race location. INCAA tri actually went up in roster cap so that’s going to be a bonus, and add in that there will be very little “revenue sharing” in our sport because well we aren’t on tv, like ever. So the school is only going to owe the xc or triathlete $7.12 a year vs the $30k (made up but semi realistic number) a year for football, etc.\
What it may end up doing is creating a sport that the “stronger” programs outside of the power 5 schools (only a few of those currently) may end up being D2 programs. D2 and D3 aren’t part of the House settlement, so if the D1’s cut scholarships to very little amounts, what you may end up seeing is that "D2 now is the “D1” " that people flood too for athletic scholarships.
This is all a tangent to basically say, if NCAA TRI makes NCAA championship status, the support requirements that USAT feels and drives it currently will go away to almost nothing. So in that aspect they can then find a new pathway to support (IE the new women’s development team pathway).