Since they haven’t raced against each other, all I can do is compare their performances with those they did race. Looking at the Tour de Suisse (Ullrich) and the Dauphine (Armstrong), I’m struck by a couple of things.
First, the Dauphine contained some real TdF GC threats and/or previous Grand Tour GC contenders: Mayo, Hamilton, Armstrong, Leipheimer, Sevilla. It seems the TdS did not. With the exception of Mont Ventoux, Armstrong was able to stay with the contenders
At the final TdS TT, Ullrich beat Bodrogi by :08; in the first TT in the 2003 TdF, Ullrich beat Bodrogi by 5:25! Also, Ullrich lost bits of time on Stages 7 & 8.
In any case, it will be an interesting race in July.
No offense Ken, but this strikes me as grasping for straws. There are WAY to many variables, including the fact that Bodrogi wasn’t exactly having great form at the tour last year, to compare these efforts. Just about the only thing that can be said is that ALL of the big names are coming in to the race on great form. This promises to be a good tour, even if one of the big ones falls away. There are enough conflicting results from the lead up that, when combined with the particulars of the parcours, its nigh on impossible to handicap the race. Copout on my part? I don’t think so. I’m betting on Armstrong. But Indurain looked like a shoe-in going for his sixth as well. . .then some Johnny-come-lately ( )amed Riis came along and set the tour on end.
Well, hmmm. . .Hamilton, Mayo, Heras and even folks with more outside shots at even making the podium, like Leipheimer. Who knows about Simoni, as well. . . Some of these guys are real long shots to unseat Lance, but are still big names, and given the right conditions, could pull off something big. And all of them are in great condition right now(except maybe Simoni who we haven’t heard from since the Giro).
I’m kinda bummed the Vino and Beloki won’t be there…this is going to be one very exciting Tour…might need to take the last week of it off work so I don’t stress out too much having to work while it’s on.
Heh, heh. . .I’m on leave between duty stations for the entire race. I’m looking forward to catching the live racing coverage daily. . .except of course for Sundays, when OLN has to cow to the “Hunting with Hank” crowd. . .@!#$%#$%%%#@$%@#$@#@$^%&@#$^%!!!
Simoni could be a suprise. Maybe his goal for this year was the Tour and the Giro just a sideshow? A bluff? Lance Ventoux a bluff? I dont know, but in 2 weeks it will start to unravel and I will be glued to the screen.
I think Bottom line is Lance vs. Jan. Mayo may show flashes of brilliance but will not be able to sustain, Hamilton will be consistantly strong but may not be able to break the top 2. Heras will probably win a mountain stage but will falter in TT.
i’m not sure what to think of ullrich. he’s obviously riding into form at the right time and his tdf resume speaks volumes. however, the tour de suisse didn’t have the same level of competition as the duaphine, nor did it look like as difficult a course and yet he had a bit of difficulty on a couple of the uphill finishes. valid arguments can be made that it’s still a bit early and he’s rounding into peak condition and that guys like jeker(swiss) had made this race an absolute target, and thus were peaking for the race.
with how these guys can ride into shape in short notice plus the poker that is going on amongst the contenders, it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff when trying to decide which results are the most meaningful in terms of predictive value and even how meaningful those ‘key’ results are…
I don’t think Ullrich will be a factor in this year’s TdF. Lance has double the will power and at least 90% of Ullrich’s talent, all of which should suffice for the job. Absent some major mistake or unfortunate accident, Lance will win.
Oh, and I really like Ullrich. I just don’t think he’s as strongly motivated as Lance.
I’m with you, Robert…I think Mr. Armstrong will win, barring catastrophe, and it will be more decisive than the whiteknuckle affair of 2003.
Also, the more I read his comments on athletics, I don’t think he’ll be doing Triathlons after he retires. At least, not seriously. Too bad for us. Then again, maybe Triathlon isn’t really ready for the onslaught of new people THAT would stimulate. It’s tough enough just to get in many of these races now.
I’m just about falling out of my chair laughing while imagining a dozen jackasses 10 years from now on this forum debating whether LA was truly a great athlete or not because he never won Kona. “All he did was focus on that ONE race. And all they do is cycle. Anyone can be good at ONE sport.”
You laugh now. . .someday, somewhere, there will be 12 jackasses…
)amed Riis came along and set the tour on end.