TT's Things to Watch For in Baseball's 2nd Half (Comments Welcome)

The Coffee Shop
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AL East
Boston – Will they stay healthy for the rest of the year? They are in a similar situation as the '05 Cardinals … where they’ll win so many games in a weak division that the division will essentially be over early in Spetmeber, and they’ll “coast” for a month and then run into playoff teams (WC team in 1st round, division winner in 2nd round) that have been in “competition mode” for the whole month.
Rest of the ALEast – Will A-Rod win the MVP? Will A-Rod stay with Yanks? Clemens has pitched back-to-back gyms … will the rest of the season just be his audition for a $20M contract for next year? Who will lose 100 games first: Baltimore or TB?

AL Central
Cleveland – Will their pitching hold up? Sabathia is 12-2. He’s never won more than 17 games, can he win 20+? Fausto Carmona is 10-4 (Remember when he was the closer and gave up back-to-back walk-off losing homers … one of which was to ARod?). My inclination is that the Indians are in danger of slipping to more experienced teams.
Detroit – Is all they have to do is keep playing their regular high-quality baseball and wait for Cleveland to slip? Will Granderson keep up his phenominal season? Will Magglio win the MVP? They also get Rogers back the 2nd half (17.1IP in 1st half)
Minnesota – Tell me if you’ve seen this movie before? Minn has to make up 7 games. Detoir and Minnesota could both win playoff births with Cleveland falling to 3rd, and it wouldn’t (IMO) be surprising.
ChiSox – Will the fire sale take place? Dye is a free-agent they likely will not sign. Buerhle is attracting a lot of interest. Konerko is very hot. Will these teams affect the playoff run elsewhere.
KC – Can they finsih last or lose ou on that honor to the ChiSox. Ooooh.

AL West
LAA – Will they or Boston get the #1 seed in what could be the “Yeah, we don’t get to play Detroit in the 1st round” sweepstakes. Will Vlad win the MVP? I don’t see any West team catchnig the Angels. Will John Lackey test positive for PEDs?
SEA – Can they really win the WC with Washburn and Batista as their top pitchers (King Fernandez in an injury-plagued year)? Will Ichiro win the MVP by making a run at the hits/singles record? Will it just turn into a meaningless fight for 2nd with Oakland?
OAK – Can they catch the M’s? Will it even matter?

NL East
NYM – Will the offense look like the 06 version in the seond half (If yes, the division is won … if no, it’s probably still won). Will Pedro be Pedro come playoff time?
ATL – How long can this miracle last? Probably not long. The only thing saves the season is if Jones explodes rather than implodes. Hudson has cooled off quite a bit.
PHIL – proof that pre-season smack talk doesn’t win the division by itself.

NL Central
MIL – Will this young team slip? (Wouldn’t surprise me). Will Fielder win the MVP? Is Hardy cooled off for a bit or just come back down to Earth? Suppan has been in this position before so he will likely pitch well in the 2nd half. Can Sheets stay off the DL?
CUBS – Derek Lee has 6 homers. Soriano has 32 RBIS (lead-off hitter). This offense was suppossed to be powerful, but it’s the pitching that the strongsuit. The Marquis honeymoon is over. The bullpen is still the achilles hill, but the season could be really something if the lefties (Lilly, Hill, Marshall) eat up the Central the way lefties can do.
STL – Carpenter’s coming back. Mulder is coming back. The offsense has normalized. Ludwick has provided a spark with 6 homers in 118 AB’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals win the division. I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish 3rd. So much depends on carpenter/Mulder being effective, and Edmonds and Rolen remembering that they are former all-stars (hopefully not too former). It’s teh central … you can winn this division with 85 (or less) wins.
Rest of the Division – Which of the PIT, Hou, and CIN teams will put up a great record versus contenders in the 2nd half and significantly affect the race?

NL West
SD – Will they win the division for the 3rd straight year? Who cares. More importantly is this the year that they actually win a playoff game? (Swept by STL last 2 seasons 0-6). They’ve got a pretty good club with a good mix of young (no pun) and veteran pitchers. I think they win the division.
LAD – Wow, a season where LA is actually a factor. What is this the late 80s? Who wants to come over and play Intellivision? If only Schmidt hadn’t gotten injured. The 3-man rotation of Lowe-Penny-Schmidt would have been a playoff wrecking ball. How soon till Nomar gets hurt again?
ARZ – Great 1st half of the season. Good-bye. DBacks and Rocks have the best young players, and should be back in 08.
SF – It’s all about Bonds. Will he do it at home or on the road? Will they boo/cheer/both? Will the commisioner show up? Doesn’t the commissioner have to show up? I mean really, it’s the biggest record in baseball and the commissioner is acting as if he has a choice on whether to be present or not?

Predictions:
AL East: Boston
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Los Angeles/Ana … screw it … the California Angels
WildCard: Minnesota

Any playoff matchup in the ALCS is going to be a good one.

NL East: Mets
NL Central: St. Louis (Why not?, they’re chasing the Brewers and Cubbies)
NL West: San Diego
WildCard: Dodgers, by default.

Could it really be 2006 NLCS Part 2?

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St. Louis - I too think they can win their division, but the N. L. Central is the Brewer’s to lose at this point. The Cardinals would need Carpenter and Mulder back to form to even have and chance, and Pujols getting back on the PEDs wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Cards either. Edmunds is done. He should retire after the seaon.

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There was plenty of discussion on NESN’s post-game show yesterday regarding what to expect from the Sox in the second half, and also the possibility of seeing Detroit again in the post-season should the current standings hold up the rest of the way. I forget the exact figure, but they said something like two-thirds of Boston’s remaining schedule is against teams with sub .500 records. The key for them is staying healthy (Ortiz and Youkilis have been dinged up lately, plus Schilling has missed his past few starts), continued solid pitching from the starters and the bullpen, and getting the pricey free agents like Drew and Lugo to start hitting.

As for Detroit, one thing that was mentioned during yesterday’s game was the possibility of them going after Eric Gagne to fill the closer’s role and strengthen their bullpen. That could be interesting to see if it plays out as they are getting guys back from the DL also.

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Some random comments:

I like the Cubs to win the NL Central. They’ve really turned around since Sweet Lou went crazy a month ago.
Andruw Jones is heating up. Of course, Wickman is really struggling. 2 weeks and Soriano is the new Braves closer.
The Padres have the best pitching in either league. How far can they go?
The Tigers are the team to beat. At least right now…long time 'til the playoffs.
Minnesota is not the same team they were last year. Santana is their only good pitcher.
I think Colorado could surprise some people. But a tough division if the Padres and Dodgers keep playing well.
I don’t think the Cardinals have it in them this year. Is it just me, or have they gotten really old? Maybe I am just thinking of Edmonds and Rolen, though.

Who makes the big trade this month? Buerhle is staying in Chicago after signing an extension yesterday. Who gets Gagne? Texiera? Does Baltimore trade Bedard? Do the Braves move Saltalamacchia? How about Dontrelle? Any other Marlins on the move? Do the D-Rays move any of their young studs? Should be an interesting few weeks…or maybe nothing happens (like a lot of years) and everyone’s stuck with what they have now.

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I’m too lazy, but I’d looooooooove someone to take a look at all the top talent that got traded away, or was unsignable due to MLB ownerships, just before Montreal moved to DC. Goes without saying, I’m a Nats fan. But I also used to be a Spos fan as a family friend played for them. I loved Deline Deshields because he wore his socks so high.

I believe half the great players for the Indians came their b/c of the BS Bartolo Colon trade.

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The most accurate thing in your post was this:

“… the California Angels”

but on a more related topic, I’d have to agree with you. I don’t follow baseball super closely anymore, but you have it nailed down pretty solid.

Angels vs. Dodgers World Series, what are the chances?

On that same note, but going off topic a bit, A-Rod reportedly likes the prospects of going to either LA team. will he do it? which one would be better for him/for the team? thoughts?

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FWIW

Cleveland is in 2nd place to Detroit now, but 8 games up on the yankees for wild card. They will make the playoffs but need home field to do anything. they suck on the road, but are near unbeatable at the jake.

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**Maybe I am just thinking of Edmonds and Rolen, though. **

The Cardinals traded Kent Bottenfeld to Anaheim for Jim Edmonds in 2000. 6 Gold Gloves and 2 World Series later … we’ve gottewn more out of Edmonds than we ever could have hoped for. I, too, hope he retires. He deserves it. He doesn’t need to keep killing himself. I remember hearing an interview with Garrett Anderson (LF for the Angels) on how Garrett won’t dive because it’s too much of injury risk, and then I thought of Edmonds playing CF right next to him. Anderson had to think Edmonds was suicidal. grin I was hoping Edmonds would catch fire and have a great “Will Clark” type of finale. Everytime you think Edmonds is done or over-matched, he proves you wrong. He’s the “typical” strike out 3 times and then win the game with a 3-run walk-off bomb.
Rolen has been confusing. The plays he’s been injured on seem innocent enough, yet his injuries turn out to be severe. I keep think of Game 6 of the 2006 playoffs, when Rolen hit the homer that Chavez robbed in the 6th inning and turned it into an inning-ending double play, which seemed (at the time) to be THE momentum shift of the playoffs. After being benched earlier that series, I wanted Scottie to have that “series winning” moment (Yadier got it in the 9th). IMO, Scottie has never recovered from being benched an hour before the playoff game (for Spezio) and not being told about by LaRussa (I still can’t figuire out why LaRussa so enjoys pissing everyone off).

I expect Edmonds to retire. I wouldn’t be surprised if Scottie retired, or got traded, and/or became an All-Star for another team. I like Scottie a ton, but his StLouis days have likely came to an end … although StL has a history of being loyal to players, even when the smart baseball decision would be to get rid of them. Rolen has had a very solid career. He and Edmonds will not be Hall of Famers, but they will be those guys like Willie McGee that even the next generation of Cardinal fans knows of and celebrates.