Tough to find a straight/informed asnwer among OH-base forums.
People make the assumption because he's a black QB, who began his career as a run-first QB, that he is a Michael Vick type. I hear Herbstreit on the OSU/Mich game that he is now more of a Drew Brees type of QB. He is also closer to Brees' build, a 6'0 type-I think Vick is around 6'1 but considerably thicker.
I think Smith's arm isn't strong enough to make it in the NFL, right now; however, I'd like to gamble a day one pick on him (2nd rond pick probably). Being a Cleveland Browns fan, people in OH are clammoring for Crennel to be fired, replaced with Tressel, and draft Troy Smith.....and ride off into the sunset. Especially after the egg we layed last week Vs Cinctucky. I like Smith, and I think he'll end up a solid NFL QB; however, the Browns need TONS of hep on the OL/DL/RB spots. We do need a QB, but I'd rather grab a vetran type...
I do not think that Smith will be a QB in the league. However, he is a good enough athlete that someone will take a chance on him being able to do something else.
I hope that dem braanies do what they want, especially since I am a Steeler fan (Super Bowl XL Champions by the way in case you hadn’t seen it). Sir Braylon will certainly straighten up under a buckeye disciplinarian like Tressel.
Smith is a strange case. His height is not “prototype”, so he may get held back. Seneca Wallace’s success in Seattle may change that.
He won’t go because of the money, but I made the comment to my buddy that Smith would be a great CFL QB. A lot of throwing on the run, and running the ball by the QB. Height doesn’t matter so much up here because it’s not usually a dropback game. Doug Flutie was recently named greatest CFL player ever, after not having any NFL success prior to coming north.
It all depends on what team drafts him. Roethlisberger, for example, is highly successful when his team is one of the best running and defensive teams in the league (duh). Michael Vick had his most successful seson the year the Falcons led the league in rushing.
Now that the Steelers aren’t the run dominant team they once were, and the Falcons aren’t either … both QB’s have trouble being consistent winners. Not all B’s can carry a team, and frankly Vick’s lack of accuracy seriously hampers his consistent effectiveness despite the highlight reals.
IMO, it’s tough to gauge a college QB’s success because the best QB’s in college typically have receivers that are much more athletically talented than the defensive players. That’s not going to be the case on an NFL team looking to take a QB in the 1st round. THey ar typically going to go to a struggling team that has high turnover of coaches and staff, and they are essentially going to be thrown to the wolves.
Even prototypes like Eli Manning are going to struggle when too much is expected of them. In today’s NFL, the successful QB’s are those that manage the game, take care of the ball, and can make 3rd down conversions with their arm or legs. IMO, Steve McNair (the young one) is the new prototype. His teams typically run the ball, play ball control and field position offense, and are highly successful on 3rd downs. The teams that routinely place their QB’s in no-win situations where they have to make 4-5 big plays on each drive and go the length of the field typically produce interception-machines. The QB’s try to play above their ability (Rex Grossman for example).
Troy Smith has shown himself to be “football intelligent” and not make repeated stupid plays … much like Roethlisberger did his first few years. Move enough to avoid sacks, scramble when necessary, but mostly dump the ball to your backs and short yardage receivers for easy conversions.
I look at all the hype guys like Philip Rivers are getting and everyone seems to overlook that his running back is the best player in the game, and has been the best back for the past 6 yers. Take away LT, and Ribvers limitations may get exposed.
Today’s NFL has no place for gunslingers … guys that are great one week and interceptio-prone the next. Defenses bait and scheme to dictate where the QB makes his throws. If Smith is smart enough to read defenses, take what the D gives him, and uses his mobility to avoid sacks and buy time, he’ll be successful, given that his team is also decent.
The league has seen plenty of Ryan Leafs, Akili Smiths, Andre Wares, David Klinglers, etc to make predicting the NFL success of a college QB almost impossible … especially when considering that the surrounding team is largely responsible for the QB’s success. See Steve Young for example (comparing his TB years v. his SF years). The same guy was a bust with one team, a Hall of Famer with another.
I think it is critically important to pair a young QB with a coach/coordinators for 2-5 years. But, that doesn’t happen because of the instant success, instant gratification mentality that pervades the NFL. Any coach that struggles with a young QB will be out and replaced by the “new guru”, and the QB essentaially starts over.
I don’t see any reason why Smith couldn’t be successful in the NFL if he makes good decisions and doesn’t turn the ball over. Sure, it sounds simple enough.
I agree with everything you said. I don’t think Troy Smith is necessarily worth a first or second round pick but his play definitely warrants a shot at playing QB at the next level. QB’s definitely don’t need to be 6’4 or 6’5 to be successful, look at Steve Young for example, if they can use their mobility and don’t always try to be a gunslinger a 6’0 or 6’1 quick QB can be very successful.
Troy Smith is probably a much better passer than Seneca Wallace was coming out of college if that’s worth anything, he’s done a great job of becoming a pass first player this year.
NFL teams also have to guess at how much a prospect is going to improve over the course of his career, which has to be very difficult. Some guys get much bette with coaching and experience, other guys are as good as they are ever going to be coming out of college. That’s the gamble.
As for “not worth a first round pick” … IMO, that all depends on what the team needs. Teams have to draft for what they need and take the best player at that position (and that fits their philosophy) to give them the best chance at winning. If a team is basically set at all key positions, and has a veteran QB, that a college prospect like Smith can watch for a year or two or three and learn more about preparation and how to play the position, they will be much better off and possibly more worth a first round pick.
IMO, you also have to look at what style of system a QB plays in college when trying to assess their pro potential. QB’s that play a “pro style offense” (like Leinert, Drew Brees at Ourdue, etc) are going to be ahead of the game and easier to gauge. QB’s that are on dominant teams full of dominant players playing against teams that htey are already more talented than are much harder to assess. That could make evaluating Troy Smith more difficult.
Again, guys like Pennington, Brees, Grossman, etc are far from genetic marvels but can have success when they play the game with some smarts. I don’t see any reason why Troy Smith couldn’t be one of those guys. IMO, he’s in a different situation than guys like Akili Smith, Aaron Brooks, Rob Johnson, even Michael Vick, that come into the league with all these natural gifts and teams bank on them “improving into a great B”. I think guys like Tony Romo, from 1AA Eastern Illinois show what can be done by just having enough mobility to make it interesting and making good decisions with accurate passes. Brad Johnson is a verteran of this sort that usually has his share of success.
Dare I say - Charlie Ward.
An NFL quarterback from Ohio State?
I’d waste a pick on him, but maybe 3-5 round. I see him maybe as a backup guy for a few years who then gets a chance to start after learning from a good quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator. Having a good mentor quarterback in front of him wouldn’t hurt.
I’m a huge Michigan fan, and this pains me to say, but I think Troy Smith is a great QB prospect.
He has incredibile instincts, good accuracy, and a quick release. His decision making is pretty incredible. He just dismantled a great defensive pass rush team because he got rid of the ball before the pressure could get there.
He uses his athleticism to get out of jams and make plays down the field. I think he’s a better passer than Vince Young, but he exihibits that Vince Young like ability to evade pressure while keeping his eyes down field.
I’d pick him if I needed a QB on my team.
**Dare I say - Charlie Ward. **
I would have loved to have seen how Ward might do in the NFL. The best combination of passing and running ability in college football. He was, flat-out, amazing … with leadership ability. Ward reminded me of Randall Cunningham. It is doubtful that Ward would have experienced longevity in the NFL, which likely figured into his choice to go into the NBA. Ward was also drafted as a pitcher by the Milwaukee Brewers in 93 and the New York Yankees in 94.
Smith isn’t as “run” as he is “mobile” (in comparison to other “running quarterbacks”). Smith’s best rushing game is 54 yards on 7 carries. He’s thrown for 30 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. 67% completion rate w/ 209ypg average. Translation: He’s a mobile, low-mistake, ball-control QB. That seems to be the current model for success in the NFL, Peyton Manning withstanding of course.
Smith’s last 2 years v. Ward’s 92-93 stats.
Att-Comp%-Yds-Pass TD-INT Rushes-Yds-Avr
Smith 534-65%-5789-46-9 198-844-4.3
Ward 745-62%-5679-49-22 165-449-5.2
17 of wards 22 INT’s came in his “Pre-Heisman” year. Ward’s Heisman years stats are less than Smith’s … maybe I should rethink my “best combination of running and passing” thing about Ward. I just remember him being ridiculously talented.
Incidently both guys ran a lot more in their first big year, and then during their Heisman year’s passed the ball with great efficiency … likely as a result of making adjustments to defenses and becoming more confident passers.
Troy Smith is the real deal. I had the unfortunate privelege of watching him shred a pretty good defense in Austin early in the season. He looked even cooler and just as accurate while under more pressure against Michigan. He is a winner who can beat you with his arm or his feet. Very mature and cooler under pressure than some other overpaid first rounders in the past few years.
I think he would be a valuable addition to any team with a decent line and a good receiver core. Arm strength isn’t as much an issue with everyone running West Coast style offenses. Maybe one or two passes per half are longer than 10 yards! Troy threw two passes over forty yards for strikes against Texas and both times the throws looked effortless. I watched Vince do similar things and felt that he would make any team better that would give him the chance. Troy will do the same with maybe a little better passing out of the chute.
He has to go in the first round IMOP.
Last night on PTI while discussion Donovan McNabb’s future they said he might be 2nd round draft pick.
I think the Charlie Ward comparison to be a little unfair in that I think the NFL has become a much friendlier league for guys like Ward, Young, Smith, Vick, etc. The league has come to the view that your QB has to be mobile, if not a great athlete, in order to avoid getting killed, like Drew Bledsoe. On the other hand, there is obviously still a role for pure dropbacks like Brady, Manning (Peyton not Eli), etc. But I think the threshold for being a great dropback is pretty high, and if you can’t run you have to be that much better at reading defenses, making decisions, and getting rid of the ball in a very small window of time. Running makes window a bit bigger.