I’m not looking for a scientific response to this question but…
If I did an Olympic Triathlon with the following splits:
S - 39:19
B - 1:23:52
R - 50:08
Total - 3:00:58
What should I expect to finish a marathon? (Assuming I do a standard training program.)
I know there are people on ST that do both, please post your Tri and Marathon times. I’m just curious where I would expect to be if I were to train for and complete a marathon.
you’d be better off predicting from an open 10k time. i’ll assume you can do an open 45min 10k that being said, you still need a solid run base and build.
but i’ll guess at 3:32:03, if you’re properly prepared. if not, 3:45.
As with all charts/projections, take this for what it’s worth. A 50:08 OD run split would assume a VDot of somewhere in the vicinity of 42:
*Courtesy of http://www.amtriathlon.com/
Assuming that’s relatively accurate, this would project a marathon POTENTIAL (assuming similar fitness) of 3:40 as per Daniels’ calculations:
http://www.runbayou.com/jackd.htm
I really depends on your history in running… in years.
Assuming you’ve been doing some running for the past couple years, you’ll need a serious 3-6 month prep for a 3h30-3h40min marathon.
Best is to do a standalone 5K/10K and use McMillan to predict:
http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/mcmillanrunningcalculator.htm
For your reference, I run 44-45min in a flat OD-tri (on specific training) while going 3h20min-3h25min in a flat Marathon (on minimal training).
you really can’t predict this. With your current run fitness, you likely aren’t running anywhere near enough to not fall apart around mile 18
if you do start running enough to not fall apart at the end, you will likely get a lot faster =)
I can run a Olympic 10K about like you, in 50 minutes (at altitude)
My last two open marathons were 3:28 and 3:35 (sea level)…have yet to break 4 hours at an IM
.
How do you know the OP didn’t train his ass off for the time he got? I agree its tough to tell anything from a tri split alone, but I wouldn’t infer that I know much about anyones training just from his time.
Styrrell
I really depends on your history in running… in years.
Best is to do a standalone 5K/10K and use McMillan to predict:
http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/...unningcalculator.htm
This is your best bet. A 5k test can work to ballpark your vdot, but I find it to be much more variable than a 10-15k test. By all accounts, my run times for standalone 10k, 15k, and 1/2 marathon races put me somewhere in the 2:45-2:50 marathon range. I’ve never run better than 2:57, for the simple reason that I never train specifically for a marathon.
The marathon is really the shortest distance at which total race execution is critical - from start to finish. In shorter races, you can overreach early, bank some time, and still finish in one piece. Everyone wants to predict their marathon time from some other stake in the ground, but the simple fact is that only your marathon-specific training and your ability to execute a race plan will give you the answer.
My last two open marathons were 3:28 and 3:35 (sea level)…have yet to break 4 hours at an IM
I remember seeing years ago on Gordo’s old site where he said that a rule of thumb to use for predicting IM run splits based on stand-alone marathon times was to add about 45 minutes to your marathon PR. This was the case for me where my two fastest stand-alones were 3:10 and 3:12, and my two best IM run splits 3:53 and 3:57.
I’d go one further than previous posters and say you need to run an open half marathon to get an accurate conversion to a marathon effort.
As previously mentioned you can be a fast 10K guy and be unable to convert up to a marathon. A half will get you a more realistic conversion, but still not perfect.
I think 10% to 12% is a more accurate rule of thumb. Anything less than that is poor bike fitness. So, shoot for 3:30 next time 
Unless you’ve run multiple marathons or have been running 70mpw for at least a year, I wouldn’t use McMillan since it will most likely predict a much faster marathon than what you’re capable of. If you do use McMillan, your best bet would be to use a HM time or the longest distance you’ve raced.
A better method might be to use the Jim2 formula based on a recent 10K race. Assuming you had a good run split, a 50:08 is probably in the neighborhood of a 48 min open 10K.
http://www.hillrunner.com/jim2/id64.html
If you’re running 70mpw for the last 6 months, you’re looking at around 3:48. If you’ve been running 30-35mpw, then 4:24. Set realistic goals for your marathon, otherwise it will be one of the worst experiences of your life.
If you are capable of running 70mpw for 6 months and only run a 3:48, something is wrong.
If you are capable of running 70mpw for 6 months and only run a 3:48, something is wrong.
Unfortunately, this does happen, and not infrequently.
I think that it doesn’t seem to happen commonly because most people who commit to a 70mpw workload are already fairly serious and decently fast runners with at least ‘good’ genetics compared to the average population (not average running population - talking joe average streetperson here.) So, when you ask around for 70mpwers, you get times skewed toward the speedy side, like 3ish marathon.
However, I can tell you from frequenting marathon forums for years, that there are a handful of die-harders that will do the Pfitz 70, or similar hi-volume plan, quite diligently, and put up 3:45-4+ hr marathons. Granted, a lot of these folks are 45+, but now that I’ve seen a bigger range of runner abilities, I’m pretty certain that a LOT of ‘joe-average’ folks would throw up 3:48ish times with a 70mpw plan.
If you’re training diligently for several years at lower volume, say 30-45mpw for marathon specifically, and are still in the 4:15-5hr range, pushing up to 70mpw a week will NOT magically get you up to 3hrs, or even close. You’ll be lucky to get a 3:45 at 70mpw with that ability. A good number of folks in my local running club do exactly this, and are putting up exactly these numbers.
I can run a Olympic 10K about like you, in 50 minutes (at altitude)
My last two open marathons were 3:28 and 3:35 (sea level)…have yet to break 4 hours at an IM
.
And there is the other end of the spectrum, where I have run 48-50 minutes off the bike and have yet to break 4 hours in an open marathon. I have completely fallen apart at mile 18ish in every attempt. I hate that race.
That is why I used the word “likely”.
As an untalented person I know what 60 miles per week will do to your run times, even when untalented.
How do you know the OP didn’t train his ass off for the time he got? I agree its tough to tell anything from a tri split alone, but I wouldn’t infer that I know much about anyones training just from his time.
Styrrell
marathon is a silly distance
but that is what is fun about it
its just beyond what the human body will readily adapt to.
3 miles? no problem
6 miles? I got this
12 miles? it will hurt but just keep going we will get there
~22 miles? eff you, I’m shutting down, you sick bastard.
And there is the other end of the spectrum, where I have run 48-50 minutes off the bike and have yet to break 4 hours in an open marathon. I have completely fallen apart at mile 18ish in every attempt. I hate that race.
What if you’re a 75 year old woman? 3:48 would be an AG record.
The OP stated that his 10K in an OD tri is 50:08. If the OP started running 70mpw, I too would assume that he would get faster which is why I say to base it on a recent 10K time.
I can run a Olympic 10K about like you, in 50 minutes (at altitude)
My last two open marathons were 3:28 and 3:35 (sea level)…have yet to break 4 hours at an IM
.
And there is the other end of the spectrum, where I have run 48-50 minutes off the bike and have yet to break 4 hours in an open marathon. I have completely fallen apart at mile 18ish in every attempt. I hate that race.
He said 4 hours in ironman not open marathon.3:28 & 3:35 at open marathon.