So the guy is a monster in the time-trial, and flat out destroyed the field at the UCI Worlds TT. But to take the TDF, even if it is a “flatter” race… is it within reach?
For those of you who have been watching the TDF for decades and have seen all the trends and legends come and go on varying courses, what do you postulate?
I am going to boldly predict that Martin will come 8th in this year’s Tour de France while winning the time trial stages handily. You heard it here first.
The problem with the WC TT is that many of the top GC guys rarely focus on it, nor can carry the fitness or motivation that late into the year. In the TDF, he won’t put much time on BW, AC, CE, LL, et al in the TTs and will certainly lose time on all three of the mountain top finishes. I would say he may hit the top five overall, but the top of the podium seems a bridge too far at this point.
He’s going to have to do it like Big Mig, stay within sight in the climbs, and crush 'em in the time trials
I don’t think they are implying that Martin will win the Tour de France, just that he’ll wear the yellow jersey at some point - which is realistic for a top Time Trialer as he is. Either right off the top after the Prolouge, or if he’s placed well enough in the GC going into one of the other ITT’s he could get the Yellow Jersey there.
As for the Olympic Games - that’s a big roll of the dice. Even the provisional favorite and the home-town hero for the O-Games Road Race, Mark Cavendish has said that, he thinks he has a good shot on the day for Olympic Gold, a number of key things have to go his way.
He’s going to have to do it like Big Mig, stay within sight in the climbs, and crush 'em in the time trials
I don’t think they are implying that Martin will win the Tour de France, just that he’ll wear the yellow jersey at some point - which is realistic for a top Time Trialer as he is. Either right off the top after the Prolouge, or if he’s placed well enough in the GC going into one of the other ITT’s he could get the Yellow Jersey there.
As for the Olympic Games - that’s a big roll of the dice. Even the provisional favorite and the home-town hero for the O-Games Road Race, Mark Cavendish has said that, he thinks he has a good shot on the day for Olympic Gold, a number of key things have to go his way.
From the article I think you are right, just “better” GC not overall. Two thoughts:
I think he is going to regret not gunning for a gold medal in his prime, a TDF jersey wearer/good GC doesn’t even come close
I still don’t totally understand how these climbers also do so well in the TT. Pure power to weight? TT guys are worn down by the mtns?
I think he is going to regret not gunning for a gold medal in his prime, a TDF jersey wearer/good GC doesn’t even come close
Something I’ve wondered about cycling. In terms of cycling prestigue, is an cycling olympic medal that better than a TdF win? Obvously in Track or swimming, the winner of the 400 meters goes a long way more than a winner of a world championships. But is cycling different? I ask because I couldnt tell the winners of the gold medal races, but I could tell you the winner of the Tour over the past umpteem decades. Did Eddie Merckx ever win a gold (not sure if cycling was even an event back in the day)?
I don’t think it’s that the TT guys are worn down by the mtns per se. Rather, they generally have other responsibilities. Cancellara and Martin have to take some long pulls to protect their teammates on a variety of stages. They don’t have the luxury of looking out only for their own interests to stay as fresh as possible for a late-race ITT.
Until recently the Olympics was for amateur cyclists, not pros. It doesn’t have the history and prestige of more entrenched events. The word champ gets to wear the rainbow jersey for a year, which nets a lot of publicity…the oly champ, nada (though Paulo Bettini did try to milk his olympic victory by wearing gold shoes and a gold helmet for the next four years).
Right now a worlds win is at least as prestigious, and a TdF win much more so. Lots of pro sports are like this, everyone in the NBA would rather have a championship ring than a gold medal.
Does He have a chance…I think if he had a team for it, he would not be given the consideration He deserves. With a team, and a program designed for it, yes.
No chance he’s the team favorite for GC now that they have Levi. He’ll be working for Levi come the mountain stages and on his own in the flat lands and TTs. He said he’s hoping for a good GC showing which in this years race could mean a top 10 finish if he can suffer enough in the mountains after going Levi a good pull to stay with the other top GCers.
He has no chance at all. Trying to make all the selections to stay in gc is significantly more demanding then the way he has previously ridden the tour. He will need at least a few tours to develop as a leader, if he can. Just my thought, remember when big george was to be a leader.
Which as you have poined out,He does not have the team for it…He is working for someone else.
I still believe If He had the team, (was captain) and the team program planned for it, He would have a better shot than most people think