Today's Daily Predict My First Open Marathon Time Thread

Triathlon Forum
1

Alrighty, will you all turn thy collective predictive powers my way? I’m running my first-ever open marathon this weekend, and I’m mighty curious to see how you think it’ll play out. Yes, I know how to use McMillan.

Here are the relevant bits of information.

About the race…
Course: Bizz Johnson; Susanville, CA. ~300’ climbing, ~1300’ descending. Thus, net ~1000’ downhill. Starts at 5300’. Packed rail trail.
Field: generally small. Course record 2:45.

About me…
Stats: 31yo, 150-155lbs.
Penchant for suffering: Monumental

Past results…
IM-mary PR: 3:21
Open 1/2-mary PR: 1:20
5k PR: 17:10
Mile PR: 5:02
Beer mile PR: 7:28

Current fitness…
General S/B/R training this year: somewhere between Very Little and Fuck All
Racing this year: 5k at Burning Man, and that’s it (cough, 1st OA, cough)
Marathon training: 3 wks total (ha!), 67 miles last week
Long run: 20 miles
Fast run: 10 hilly miles in 66’

So, here are your choices:

A) Predict-a-time
B) Great success! Crush dreams of all infidels, then limp for 6 weeks afterwards.
C) Unmitigated disaster. DNF or worse.

Fire away!

2

B

Penchant for suffering: Monumental
… .
General S/B/R training this year: somewhere between Very Little and Fuck All

LOL!

3

2:49:07
.

4

3:02:09
no doubt
.

5

2:57:21. I you want it, 2:52:04.

6

3:35
.

7

2:59, could be 2:45 without such slack-ass training this year.

8

Hmmmm.

Downhill course will smash your legs, but penchant for sufferring and ability to ramp up to 67 miles after 3 weeks should hold you in good stead.

Provided you actually want this, wear sensible shoes, and refuse to revert to the walk of shame, I’m picking A) 2 mins either side of 3:00 flat.

9

Provided you actually want this

Yup

wear sensible shoes,

Yup

and refuse to revert to the walk of shame

Yup

Pete, are you still coming here in a couple weeks? PM me your plans.

Thanks everyone, keep 'em coming! Gawd, I hope dano is wrong.

10

2:57:53
.

11

Go do some Yasso 800’s and get your own guess. :slight_smile:

12

In the interest of closing the feedback loop here, there were two right answers. The first right answer is B), and the right answer for the A) folks is 2:50:42.

I’m wrecked. Silly stories of suffering will follow.

13

I was going to guess that but your Beer Mile PR threw me off…it’s way out of line!

14

So, here are your choices:

A) Predict-a-time
B) Great success! Crush dreams of all infidels, then limp for 6 weeks afterwards.
C) Unmitigated disaster. DNF or worse.

Fire away!

Not a single person here gives a shit… 3:00 is slow, and you’ll run slower than that. Not trying to be an ass but you can’t break 5 mins in a mile but you run 17:10 for 5K? and 1:20 half should get you under 3 hours unless you lack mitochondrial density.

15

I was going to guess that but your Beer Mile PR threw me off…it’s way out of line!

I’ll have to go work on that. Never really been rip-roarin’ fit for a beer mile :).

16

So, here are your choices:

A) Predict-a-time
B) Great success! Crush dreams of all infidels, then limp for 6 weeks afterwards.
C) Unmitigated disaster. DNF or worse.

Fire away!

Not a single person here gives a shit… 3:00 is slow, and you’ll run slower than that. Not trying to be an ass but you can’t break 5 mins in a mile but you run 17:10 for 5K? and 1:20 half should get you under 3 hours unless you lack mitochondrial density.

Sorry for shitting in your Wheaties. Thanks so much for your valuable contribution, and maybe read the entire thread next time. Welcome to Slowtwitch!

17

Sorry for shitting in your Wheaties. Thanks so much for your valuable contribution, and maybe read the entire thread next time. Welcome to Slowtwitch!

your arrogance is monumental

18

Pardon?

19

Sorry for shitting in your Wheaties. Thanks so much for your valuable contribution, and maybe read the entire thread next time. Welcome to Slowtwitch!

your arrogance is monumental

Just so you know (because I know some people have a hard time with self-awareness), you are the one who looks like a complete ass in this situation.

20

So, here are your choices:

A) Predict-a-time
B) Great success! Crush dreams of all infidels, then limp for 6 weeks afterwards.
C) Unmitigated disaster. DNF or worse.

Fire away!

Not a single person here gives a shit… 3:00 is slow, and you’ll run slower than that. Not trying to be an ass but you can’t break 5 mins in a mile but you run 17:10 for 5K? and 1:20 half should get you under 3 hours unless you lack mitochondrial density.

you’re being a d-bag.