Thursday is the last time in his career that Lance will have a chance to win on top of Mont Ventoux. There is no shortage of studs in this years Dauphine Libere. Guys like Kloden, Vinokourov, Botero, Landis, Julich etc will all be in the line up. You gotta think that Lance is going to try and gun this stage and win on top of Ventoux, which up till now has eluded him (included the often speculated gift to Pantani in 2000). Will this climb reveal Lance’s true form and will he go sub 56, or will he fake it and save it for the Tour.
The stage is preceded by a 46 K TT on Wed. My feeling is that if Lance is truly on form and takes the TT and is not sandbagging it, he will try and win on Ventoux. If he is going to win it, he will need to attack on the first 12K before Chalet Raynard where the climb is super duper steep (like 12%). After that, when it gets up to the Provence moonscape, guys like Vinokourov have just as much of a chance of taking this stage.
The Saturday stage from Albertville to Morzine-Avouriaz should also be epic. Years ago, there was a super cool tri from Thonon les Bain on Lake Geneva to Morzine-Avouriaz (ie coming from the North vs the Sat Dauphine stage from the south). The bike was 20K of false flats and then 20K sstraight up to the ski station. The run continues skyward climbing continuously up to the apex of the ski resort. Very cool. I believe Simon Lessing won this race back around 1991 or so. Perhaps Francois can pull this trivia out of his hat to confirm.
I’d say that if Lance made up his ‘deficit’ training wise (compare to previous years) he will likely try everything to win there considering he always said he’d love to win at the Ventoux.
Now if he thinks hammering is necessary to win there but might hinder his chances to win #7, he will probably not care…hard to say.
as for the trivia…no idea…there was a France Iron Tour finishing at the top of a ski station, and I think indeed it was Lessing, but likely later than 1991 as the first FIT was in 1994 I believe.
One thing sure though is that it’s Avoriaz, not Avouriaz
Francois, thanks for the spelling. Its been a while since I wrote in French.
The race in from Thonon to Avoriaz was a standalone Olympic tri. A friend of mine who raced with Lessing on the Salon Tri team back in the early 90’s also competed at this race. I will check with him. It may have been as early as 1990.
You are likely correct, Lance would let it pass on digging too deep if it meant jeopardizing the attempt at #7.
Are the Euskatel boys making the start of Dauphine ?
Great topic, as I was just reading about this earlier today! My feeling is that Lance uses the TT as a workout (i.e. no redlining), but will want to take the stage to Ventoux. This is his second to last race ever, for crying out loud, and I think that the Ventoux/Pantani episode might still stick in his craw a little bit. Is it Mayo who has the record, set last year in 55:51? I don’t think anyone breaks that. So, my prediction is:
Zoomy3, you are correct that Mayo holds the record. These guys are total studs. You are likely correct that Lance will not redline the TT and save some juice for Ventoux. He will also need to make sure that his team reigns in any early breakaway like Richard Virenque’s big romp in 2003.
I did Ventoux last year on my stock Kestrel 200 with ultegra, shimano 105 wheels and profile carbon stryke bars and I took 1:29.28. While some lighter gear may have saved all of two minutes (like some Hed stingers or Zipp 303’s), the reality is that these guys have substantially superior engines to your run of the mill local age group poser. I was still doing something like 1100 m per hour (~3600 ft per hour) at my lame pedestrian pace. I can’t imagine how fast these pros go up.
You’ve ridden the Ventoux? That’s awesome. I shudder to think what a flatlander like me would ride on that mountain. I would really like to see a pro tour mountain stage in person, as I think it is hard to get an appreciation for exactly how fast these guys go uphill when watching on TV.
I think he will be hungry to win on Ventoux…and he will want a few wins under his belt before #7 just to stroke his ego going into the Tour. Even the top riders know that they can beat their rivals and soft pedalling won’t give him that true sense of how much he has in the tank.
Don’t hold your breath, he leanred a lot from '03 - only the Tour counts, save everything for the Tour. Lance believes that everyone has a limited number of efforts in their lifetime, and that his are numbered - doubt he’ll be using any this next week.
, he leanred a lot from '03 - only the Tour counts, save everything for the Tour.
I agree with this line of thinking…Lance likes to be thought of an underdog of sorts—let the tongues start wagging, the press start writing “he’s washed up, no way he can win the TDF”, etc. etc. He needs to ride angry. When people start talking smack, that will piss him off. It seems to be his motivation.
I would not look for any really hard efforts at Dauphine.
Guys like Kloden, Vinokourov, Botero, Landis, Julich etc will all be in the line up.
Watch out for Julich!!!
Lol, Julich is not even going to this race! He’s in America right now racing the USPRO Championships in Philadelphia and will race Tour de Suisse a week later instead.
sorrry, my error about Julich, and he is not in the same league as an in form Lance, but he has shown good form early this year. In any event, he will be there to help Basso at the Tour.
OK, so rather than cut up my error, feel free to post what you think will happen on the stage.
For some reason, I feel that Vino will give it a go, but with a TT the day before and 163K of riding before reaching the foot of the climb, no one will be taking down Mayo’s record. I would be surprised if anyone even goes sub 58.
I guess I left out Heras, Oscar Sevilla, , Mancebo, Zubeldia and Carlos Sastre as potential winners at the summit of Ventoux. Looks like lots of climbing horsepower in this race. Too bad Jan Ullrich is not starting
Based on the fact that Heras lost 23 seconds on the Prologue today, he will have his work cut out for him on Ventoux as there were “climbers” such as Lance, Leipheimer and Landis ahead of him. Granted, “power to weight” will have some equilization on the steepest part of Ventoux, but its not like the the 3 L’s mentioned above are hauling huge amounts of cosmetic bulk up the mountain either.
Based on the fact that Heras lost 23 seconds on the Prologue today, he will have his work cut out for him on Ventoux as there were “climbers” such as Lance, Leipheimer and Landis ahead of him. Granted, “power to weight” will have some equilization on the steepest part of Ventoux, but its not like the the 3 L’s mentioned above are hauling huge amounts of cosmetic bulk up the mountain either.
Dev
Yes, it’s easier to predict the result now when they have raced the prologue.
Based on the fact that lance “unclipped in the prologue”, I think they will be hard pressed to beat him, even if he only goes at 95% or so. I still don’t think anyone will go under 58
