Curious what people think of what’s gone on in Argentina this week.
How much risk is there this will this ripple through Latam and global economy?
Things weren’t good there to begin with. LA’s growth outlook “was cut for the fifth consecutive month in August”. The first half of the year wasn’t anything to write home about.
To quote Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital “They’ve defaulted six times since WWII, what makes you think they won’t default again?” That was a couple of years ago when Argentina sold a century bond with a 6% coupon and the issuance actually traded above par.
laughs hysterically
My second-oldest friend is originally from Argentina and now works for JP Morgan. He’s quite certain Argentina will default sometime in the next year saying that it’s a “broken” country. He’s previously told me that there’s a strange cultural phenomenon in Argentina where contracts mean nothing and loans are seen as something that don’t have to be paid back.
As to global consequences? Argentina is a small fry and it defaulting, on its own, normally shouldn’t be a problem for the global economy. The flip side to that is that dollar funding markets everywhere outside of the U.S. are very tight right now so there’s a decent chance this could set off a wave of defaults.
we are in big trouble.
Financially we don´t know where to get funds for next payments and keep imports coming, economic activity is shrinking day by day and socially and politically we have not made a choice where we want to go.
100 years ago Argentina was the future…they are a case study in what not to do politically and economically
.
I don’t follow the situation that closely, but having wanted to travel there for a long time (and finally did in 2017), I always paid a little more attention to them than anyplace else in Latin America.
When I see any mention of Argentina and defaults or other financial struggles, the following thought comes into my head: You mean to tell me that Tuesday happens every single week…
I’m pretty sure Argentina will default on their debt within a year. They might even default before their general elections in October.
The one thing that may be different this time is the involvement of China. China is investing heavily in Argentina. If Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins in October, she would probably be more friendly with the Chinese. Of course, I think the Chinese will make sure any further investment on China’s part is paid back in one way or another.
I’m not sure what is going to happen, but this is one of those rare times most economists seem to agree on something. That something being that it isn’t going to be good for Argentina moving forward.
I’m pretty sure Argentina will default on their debt within a year. They might even default before their general elections in October.
The one thing that may be different this time is the involvement of China. China is investing heavily in Argentina. **If Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins in October, **she would probably be more friendly with the Chinese. Of course, I think the Chinese will make sure any further investment on China’s part is paid back in one way or another.
I’m not sure what is going to happen, but this is one of those rare times most economists seem to agree on something. That something being that it isn’t going to be good for Argentina moving forward.
I have views on this I can’t really share, but I can say that CFK is not running for president. That’s not to say as a VP she wouldn’t be influential and that’s certainly what investors fear, but Alberto Fernandez is considered to be much more moderate.
I’m pretty sure Argentina will default on their debt within a year. They might even default before their general elections in October.
The one thing that may be different this time is the involvement of China. China is investing heavily in Argentina. **If Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins in October, **she would probably be more friendly with the Chinese. Of course, I think the Chinese will make sure any further investment on China’s part is paid back in one way or another.
I’m not sure what is going to happen, but this is one of those rare times most economists seem to agree on something. That something being that it isn’t going to be good for Argentina moving forward.
I have views on this I can’t really share, but I can say that CFK is not running for president. That’s not to say as a VP she wouldn’t be influential and that’s certainly what investors fear, but Alberto Fernandez is considered to be much more moderate.
Yes, I realize that Cristina isn’t running for President, but as a Vice President. I think though that she will wield far more power and influence than a typical VP. I also wouldn’t be too surprised if something happens and she becomes president.
I would also point out that I’d love to be wrong. I hope whoever wins can bring Argentina back into stability and prosperity. I’m just not very optimistic either candidate can do that.
100 years ago Argentina was the future…they are a case study in what not to do politically and economically
Spot on.
Surprised they haven’t made threats of war on the U.K. over the Falkland Islands. That seems to be their diversion every time the economy tanks.