Looks like Jan took 35 seconds out of Rassmussen on stage 18, so now that puts him 2:12 out going into the final TT. Looks like Rassmussen blew his podium spot. Ullrich has been really driving hard in week 3. He is always strong late in the Tour when he loses final 3-5 lbs of “Black Forest Cake stored around his midsection from his yearly Dec binge”.
My money is on Ullrich passing Basso for 2nd on the final TT. Go “Kaiser”. I love these former East Germans (must be all the stories from when my Grandfather lived in Berlin in the 20’s…) !
No way Ullrich takes 3:12 out of Basso. Armstrong will win the stage, 30 seconds ahead of Jan, Basso will be about 1:45 behind Lance, Rasmussen has the time trial of his life and still loses 5:30 to Lance and 5 minutes to Ullrich.
That is how I think it will play out but I will be pulling for Jan to take the stage! Its clear that the three best riders are Armstrong, Basso & Ullrich.
My money is on Jan. Yes, it is a big spread to close on Basso, but Jan has a proven track record of being a total stud in the final ITT of the Tdf (as long as he keeps his rubber side down when he flies around negative banked wet Euro roundabouts at 55 kph).
Saturday should be fun. No better way to close of your Ironman LP taper than watching Lance-Jan-Basso hammer out a long ITT. I just hope my condo has OLN (unlikely), so will have to head down to the local bar (perhaps I need to pound back a pint like Peter Kropko does before every Ironman).
I’d love to see Ullrich win the stage and take big time off everyone to come in second - but - he seems to be working so hard just to hold everyone’s wheel. I just don’t see it happening, much as I’d like it to.
Ullrich is likely kicking himself in the pants for crashing twice early in the tour. That alone must be close to the 3 min diff with Basso. No way he would touch Lance tough.
No way Ullrich takes 3:12 out of Basso. Armstrong will win the stage, 30 seconds ahead of Jan, Basso will be about 1:45 behind Lance, Rasmussen has the time trial of his life and still loses 5:30 to Lance and 5 minutes to Ullrich.
That is how I think it will play out but I will be pulling for Jan to take the stage! Its clear that the three best riders are Armstrong, Basso & Ullrich.
Dave in VA
Will Armstrong catch either Basso or Rasmussen on the road? I’m assuming a 3:00 gap between the top GC riders. Probably not Basso, but might catch Ras. 55km is a long way.
Lance will get a drafting penalty and will have 3’ in the Sin Bin, then Jan will put 3.55’’ into Lance on the TT winning his second Tour de France. Ha! LOL…
Amazing that Jan hasn’t realized yet that he can’t get in his best shape, just for the last few days and expect to win…
My bet - Lance wins the TT by 1’ over Jan who leads Basso by 2’ and Rasmussen is off the podium
Overall
Lance with just under 6’ on Basso just under 1’ ahead of Jan in Paris.
Francois…the best thing for Jan would be to go and be a tourist at the Giro yearly just to lose the extra 5 lbs of Black Forest cake. Then he can just work on sharpening things up in between like Basso did. It always takes him 3 weeks to get going.
When these pro riders race 6 hours per day starting at noon in a stage race, they effectively miss one meal per day (I say effectively). There is no way that Jan would not lose weight and be ready for the TdF if he went to the Giro like Lemond would and sit at the back daily, perhaps only showing his face for the final TT.
He is always strong late in the Tour when he loses final 3-5 lbs of “Black Forest Cake stored around his midsection from his yearly Dec binge”.
Are you serious? I have always heard the Kaiser is chunky, but really have never known why. Did you see the pre-tour photos where the riders were getting their physicals? I saw him with his shirt off and don’t know how he could be any thinner.
This weight thing with cyclists baffles me. I am a pretty strong rider, but Lance and I are the same height and he weighs 10-15 more lbs. I always thought if I lost any more weight I would lose power on the bike?
Amazing that Jan hasn’t realized yet that he can’t get in his best shape, just for the last few days and expect to win…
He certainly responds well to a “training” environment like the tour, doesn’t he? Too bad Ullrich and Lance didn’t choose to train together in the offseason, they would both have been better riders for it I would think.
If Jan trained like Lance in the offseason, by now Jan would have not only one the TdF in 1997, but everything since (including losing to Pantani on Galibier/les Deux Alpes). In the world of shoulda-coulda-woulda…my man Jan woulda been the 9 time TdF winner this Sunday. Sadly, he “shoulda” trained as hard as Lance in January…
There ain’t no “fatties” in the pro peloton come June.
Jan is just everyone’s favorite whipping boy, that’s all. He had some “unflattering” photos taken of him pre-season circa 2002 and lots of people here for their own reasons seem to never want to let him live it down.
the sad thing is that it’s probably true…but then this is Jan’s decision…if he doesn’t want to make the sacrifices, we can’t blame him…it’s his life, his choice…
I think we all love Jan cause he is like a real guy. He is not a robot. He gets slow and soft like all of us posers in the off season. He uses “performance reducing drugs” (esctacy). He never complains (OK, some of us on this forum do from time to time including myself), and he let’s his out of hand teamates go on the attack for no strategic reason (Vino). In short, he seems like a nice regular dude and being the former champ current underdog for 7 years just adds to his likeability factor.
Saying Jan would have won 9 tours (i know you are exaggerating on purpose) is absurd. I like Jan in a way, but the reason he hasn’t kept on winning has nothing to do with his weight, it has to do with the existence of a certain better rider and his inability to truly outclimb the best climbers. He is obviously in the top 5% of tour riders, but he doesn’t seem to have hte explosiveness like Lance had the first 4 tour wins.
BTW, Lance will destroy this TT. 1. he must win a stage (in his mind); 2. this is his last chance to make his mark and go out truly on top. He will will himself to a win.