The future of the Ironman World Championship

We did have someone earlier in the thread say:

The only reason I’d ever do an Ironman again is to qualify for a WC

And because he didn’t have a reasonable chance he wouldn’t.

And, arguing it in reverse, if the number of slots is too small, most people don’t have a chance. In a 1day Kona, you have to go sub 8:50 to qualify in certain AGs in Europe. Make it 2days and it becomes 9:30, maybe even sub 10 with a good combination of race/luck.
Maybe that’s enough to make you try 2-3 times and suddenly you’re on your way to legacy.

Some may say it’s too easy, but the reality is it’s still well below median and average times.

Even for 70.3, which on this thread have been represented as if you just show up and you get the slot, I know several people who wanted to qualify and never did. The average triathlete isn’t necessarily a Slowtwitcher.

Doubling the slots likely more than doubles the number of people interested. The effect is almost exponential. Until you reach median times, as you double the slots, you more than double the potential pool of candidates. The gaps between the pointy end of AGs (the top2-3) are often much wider than what comes just behind them.

Also, some of the effect may be delayed and indirect. More people attending a WC, means more people talking to their friends and family about their experience and inspiring them to attend an IM event.

For companies with a high churn (and IM definitely is if we all have a gut sense that many IM triathletes are “one and done”), reducing churn, even by small amounts, can have massive effects on growth and bottom line.

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For me, there is nothing that compares to the 140.6 distance. The training, the travelling, the racing, the money, the time commitment…… i’m of the opinion that using the 70.3 as a reference for how the 140.6 WC can have similar success is just, well, rather, uhm, ya, it is an entirely different species. They may both be fruits, but, ya, no matter how many times you’ve brought up that as a comparable for success, i can’t get there… and, ironically, this current post of yours does truly highlight how they are very much not comparable…

true austria or australia who fucking cares they are all the same to me .
but for some it might matter.

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As a stakeholder I would be curious what @E_DUB thinks on the matter. We briefly discussed it at IMAZ, maybe he will opine.

True, I just know a lot of people, mostly men my age, who do multiple IM’s every year just for fun. Some are looking to complete the prerequisite 12 races to be eligible for a Legacy slot.

I think the people who say “I won’t do another IM if the WC is moved from Kona” are lying to themselves. I do think they may do less IM branded IM events. But I think you will see some doing other IM events across the world (and non IM events) outside of their home country or continent. I’m similar to @Bryancd where I have taken the approach that I would rather vacation in Europe or Australia/NZ than do an IM as a racecation. Racing the WC in Kona has taken priority over racing in Europe. It would be great to do both in the same year but two big trips are hard to swallow from a cost, logistics, and vacation days.

If Kona is moved to say Spain, South Africa, or wherever…. If I’m not interested in going to that WC location, I’m very likely to change my stance and will go do one of the events I’ve always wanted to do (Frankfurt, NZ, Roth, Lanzarote, etc). The IM races in NA don’t really appeal to me much anymore other than it’s a conduit to Kona. I feel like others may have similar thoughts.

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I normally trust PTN for the most part. With some of their positions within the sport they usually aren’t going to conjecture bullshit.

I find an Sat-Sat best for everyone but I wonder what came to that from the “angry locals”? But as PTN IM previously asked for that setup and was told hell no. So I’m curious what gave the locals a change of heart. Weekend shut downs will obviously have the least disruption.

That’s a good point. Most IM USA races are so boring there’s little enthusiasm to race them for the many time top finishing customer. So if going to Kona isn’t at the end of the road, why bother? Fair enough.

I guess I don’t understand the hesitation to go to Europe for a WC though.

I do think the bigger issue with comments like yours for IM is the quality of the individual races. Ironman needs some great destination races.

St George and Couer D’alene have that potential as a course, but they are brutal to race and far from population dense areas, which limits the turnout from the back of packers who might not want to suffer so much.

So couple questions, if STG or CDA were World Championship events in the next cycle and that’s the only way you could ever race them, does that interest you? What if Lake Placid became a WC? Does that attract the reticent US customer?

The US does need some more exciting locations for the regular lineup. Florida Keys seems like it would do well… So I just looked up Ironman FL finishers and it’s the same story as Cozumel.

Women numbers are up by a couple dozen (Kona cycle), male numbers are down by a couple hundred. Here’s the thing, from 2022 to 2023 IM FL increased marginally. Then in 2024 it fell pretty hard.

Ironman definitely has some issues to work out. I realize people might say, “but Europe is healthy”. Look at the US vs EU economy. Gdp is almost double per person. The US should have just as strong if not stronger turnout at each of its races. So what’s the matter with IM racing in the USA?

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For the most part, I can’t imagine it would be any different than 70.3 WC locations. I don’t race to qualify if it’s a location I’m not interested in, but i still race to test myself at locations the family wants to go to. I can say I’m not/did not, doing/do an Ironman that holds a Nice qualification slot, but i am signed up end of 2025 for an Ironman that holds a Kona slot. I’m not interested in all the sacrifices to do an Ironman if i don’t have a chance at Kona. 90% of AG athletes have a goal of finishing though, so its different.

I think DeRue would be the right person to really try and improve the IM race experience. As you suggest, make it a destination, make the expo something special, more activities for the families beyond the kids run. This was a question I was directly asked by my friend at Ironman. How do they make the race experience more attractive? I think that’s where they can make the most improvements and grow participation.

The hesitation to go to Europe for a WC (or anywhere outside of Kona), really depends on the location for me. If it’s Frankfurt, sign me up. If it’s Finland, I’m not as excited and a bit hesitant. Just a personal thing. I want to get excited about the location and not all locations are exciting to me.

I did St George in 2022. And would do it again. I would do CDA in a heart beat if it was the WC. Lake Placid doesn’t do it for me. I can’t explain it but I don’t get the hype with that place. It’s “meh” to me. Perhaps it’s because I’m originally from Pennsylvania and too familiar with that kind of terrain, roads, weather, and views. Admittedly, I’ve never been there so maybe it’s something I just have to experience to get it.

I wouldn’t recommend the keys. There’s literally one major road. Zero chance you could shut down the road or make it safe enough for a partial closing.

I think the challenge with US races is getting good courses approved. Towns and cities are becoming less tolerant or succumbing to local complaints. Raleigh 70.3 was a fantastic race and course. The bike course was point to point with T2 in the middle of the city. The run was 2 laps downtown. It was an honest course too. Not sure what happened but I believe the city wasn’t willing to work together anymore.

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Eh…Oahu had 3 races. You get the point.

@Lurker4 they used to have a race on St Croix, I love the Virgin Islands. My assumption is people just didn’t want to travel there, but wasn’t it considered “iconic” by a lot of folks out there?

I have been to Frankfurt a zillion times (well maybe not but enough times), that I had no interest to go to Frankfurt for an Ironman. Roth yes, Nice yes, Zurich yes. But I was really jacked coming out of Lahti. What an amazing spot in Finland (so we are the opposite on that). To each their own.

In terms of North America courses, we have had beyond amazing locations in the past: Penticton, Tahoe, St. George, Cour d’Alene, Whistler, Tremblant.

But they all had 1800m+ of climbing. People voted with their legs and want flatter courses,

So now IM Tremblant is dead and IMC is moving from Penticton to Ottawa. The course here in Ottawa will be 1/3 the climbing of the other races I mentioned all cancelled at amazing venues (Tahoe was beyond awesome as was Whistler).

If you want an amazing North America location for an IM come race here in Ottawa. We already have the biggest marathon in Canada.

In terms of ST talking like anyone can qualify for 70.3 Worlds, it used to be that way for me when I was younger than 50. Now at 59, so far I am zero for three in qualifier races for Marbella. I am heading to Taupo and I was 1/3 in my qual races. For context, I USED to run 1:25 in half Ironman runs (my best at half is 4;14). Less than a year from 60, a good day is 1:55 with a sub 5;10 if I am lucky on a good weather day on the bike. Its hard to compete at 59 with the 55 year olds. And next year I have to win my age group to qualify in any race at 60-64. No sympathy needed, just pointing out that its not that easy for EVERYONE to qual for 70.3 worlds even for people who roughly know what they are doing with some genetic ability and base (maybe in the younger age groups with a lot of slots its easier…and I get that us in the older age groups had our times near the front of the races)

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Hah. I really loved the lake house we rented 30 minutes outside of Lahti. But the hotel I rented just before the race in town? Was not really impressed with the place or the downtown area. It’s worse than downtown Frankfurt used to be 30 years ago as a European city. (Frankfurt has gotten better over the last 20yrs)

The race in Lahti was great, but short of racing there I’m not sure I’d ever go back.

I had a different experience. Stayed at the Olympic training center 20 min away in Pajulahti, but maybe at a peronal level, I have a long lineup of family friends from Finland (my dad worked with a number of Finnish partners 30-40 years ago) so was finally nice to visit and on top of that we have a big Finnish community in Canada involved in Nordic Skiing between the two countries and racing in that sport at Lahti is literally the center of all of that in Finland. I have been friends with some Finnish triathletes for a long time too (Pauli Kiuru was second in Kona in 1993 and we stay in touch multiple times per month on a variety of topics from politics to sport,he is a member of Parliament in Finland these day),

But yeah, if you go to Finland you go for the country side, the lakes, the trail, the forests. Not so much for the towns (I’d go to France or Italy for towns/cities). I just like going to Germany for business !!! Less for for triathlon although Roth was a great experience staying in a homestay with a German family who spoke zero English and me speaking zero German and we worked it out!

I think the biggest factor is that every entity now wants their piece of the pie, even more so when it’s dealing with “big bad corporate” IM. When your having to find terrain for that many miles, your going through a lot of areas that aren’t the “host” city roads, and those municipalities want to be paid for the inconvience and/or having you on their roads. More often then not they won’t hold the same standard to the smaller “local RD” that they’ll certainly hold against IM (and deservedly so…business is business). So it’s just more and more expensive, and how many new races are even popping up for IM these days?

The Florida Keys would be a disaster as there is only 1 road in/out so no way in hell they’d ever let that happen. And hell to the no doing a race on that Highway without a closed course (I lived in the Keys 15 years ago before full time coaching). Raleigh 70.3 was a legendary FOP course (I think it was voted best 70.3 by the pros the 1st or 2nd year of it’s existence) but sucked ass for most MOP/BOP AG athletes because it was 91* and no shade run by the time it got to the run. I lived there, our tri store was one of the biggest vendors for it, we saw the support from the locals going from everyone racing it to only going out there to cheer on people, etc. If it was in May, instead of early June they’d still be doing that race, no doubt, as it would have easily sold out. I think the disappointing thing was the last year it was very clear the contract was not being extended and so the course they put together for the run was truly a shit show. They had 4 lanes of runners on a 2 lane road, it truly was “sorry, not sorry”.

I actually don’t know how races make it these days with so many expenses that are happening now that didn’t happen likely even 15 years ago. Like every race these days has to have a fool proof plan A-Z. There can be no “we are all adults here, make sound judgements” anymore, it basically has to be litigation proof (and even then they can still sue you).

@Bryancd I don’t know that they’ll ever make the expo special again. They have so much of their own inventory that they want to sell and thus put so much restrictions on the vendors and then the fees they make the vendors pay…It’s almost like they went so “corporate” they lost sight of the fact that sometimes you can make less, but win more later or just in “good will”. But good will is hard to judge and doesn’t show up very well as a cute precise number on some accountant’s TPS reports.

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I’ve lived in both places for 15+ years and averaged numbers are not a great indicators of discretionary income or quality of life necessary to spend the time + money on IM training.

While GDP is high, the US is the kind of place where you have a few fat cats collect all the fruits created by labor. In Europe it’s more fairly distributed. And while incomes in the US are higher, people have far less free time and far higher COL. My German friends travel internationally more frequently and spend more money on active lifestyle than my US friends (similar industry/social circles).

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You think there aren’t fat cats living it up in Europe? But that’s irrelevant, because triathletes tend to be upperclass, so more fat cats in the USA should be a bigger target market.

But to the real point:

"According to the World Bank, 2023 per capita GDP adjusted for purchasing power in the United States is more than one-third higher than that of the EU, at $81,695 vs. $60,350. Disposable incomes favor the U.S. as well.”

The big difference we can look at is vacation time. The US generally has less (the city worker and intel employees I just talked to this week that had months of accrued time and sick leave tells a different story, but they are in a minority). Still we are looking at the wealthier demographic which usually has more time off -which in the USA doesn’t necessarily mean corporate fat cats. Plenty of plumbers and electricians making good money in the USA and several I know are in endurance sports. But again that doesnt matter, because unless the US worker has 5 weeks paid vacation 10 years ago and no longer does…the question is why as there are less attended events here, and people have more money, they race less.

We can’t just flog our hobby horses and say it’s because we don’t have free health care and 5 weeks paid time off.

I’ve also lived many years on both sides of the Atlantic so the lifestyles differences aren’t lost on me. If anything I’d say the biggest difference is simply the cycling culture. As in, we don’t really have one in the USA. But still, that doesn’t explain why we had more triathletes before than we do now.

That mixed in with the legal burdens of running events is so costly seem like why there’s less small events being created out continued to sustain the big ones?

Not what I said, but rant on.

Inequality is greater in the US and disposable income/time especially in the 20-35 age range favors wester Europeans for hobbies like triathlon. Young Europeans start their adult life with more of both, especially among those who went to college.

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Is the bigger factor in which locations want to pay for the IM tourists?

These are unlikely to be locations already popular at that time of year.