So after pondering this a bit, it seems to me that SKY has a near-perfect storm coming up in July. The major issue facing the team has been the support for Cav and Wiggo. How many riders to support each and whether you derail one star’s chances by splitting goals on the team.
With the Olympics coming, and a course that is well-suited to Cav (and is in his home country), it is my belief that Cav will not finish the Tour so he can concentrate on the Olympics. Sure, he’ll target a few stage wins early, but the chances of him making it to Paris are slim, IMO. I believe this is also why he slogged through a Giro that was not suited to him - he wanted a GT in his legs before the Olympics and the Tour was too close to the Games.
Cav has already won one green jersey and has many opportunities to win others in the years ahead. Winning an Olympic gold in your home country? Once in a lifetime opportunity that has to be capitalized on. With no goal of winning the Green Jersey, this alleviates the need for Cav and SKY to contest intermediate sprints and even bring a leadout train to some degree. He has shown he can win with or without a train.
So now SKY is free to build a team primarily around Wiggo’s GC offensive, and with him clearly on blistering form. Whether he has peaked too early remains to be seen, but this is a one-time opportunity that SKY needs to capitalize on. Despite two stars with semi-conflicting goals, the Games present an opportunity for them to go “all in” on Wiggo this year.
I agree with you regrading the conflict. Historically, this game plan has not worked well. For the GC win, it needs to be an almost All-in effort by the whole team to make that happen.
I have read many stories and reports that the Olympic Road Course, is “Cavendish friendly”, in that it should set-up well for a team that is built around a sprinting power-house like Cavendish.
Two Things:
These National teams will be much smaller than Pro Tour trade teams or even the national teams in the World Road Race Championships. I believe it’s only a max of 4 riders? Is this right? If that is the case , it will be hard for the UK team to really control tings the way a Pro Tour trade team like Sky would want to control things in a Pro Tour race.
In another recent article. I have read that this may not be that great a course for Cavendish. That if certain things happen, there could be be some splits and/or he could be dropped.
Its 5 riders for the OG. Course is almost like a belgium classic, minus the cobbles. Lots of hills, narrow roads, lots of turns, also no race radios.
Being as its the OG other odd things happen. Even team players are always thinking they want their shot. Their isn’t a medal for each member, so even if you have a guy in an early break, he will try push even if he can’t out sprint the other guys in that break, rather than sit in and wait for Cav to come up and sprint for the win.
Trade team affiliations are weird. Not likely to have a guy on Sky work real hard to chase down a lone breakaway from Sky even if its not his countryman.
I’d like to see him finish, but i’d be shocked. Slogging up mountains in the bus seems like a bad idea pior to the OG. I wonder if we will see Cancellera through the whole thing. He doesn’t seem to TT too well at the end of GTs (for him). Stopping early woud be a good call.
Might be different for Fabian this year and not having to work as hard at the end. He already said the Olympics were his main goal and that his role will be limited at end of TdF. Imagine it will be the same for Martin. One thing’s for sure: the last TT should be quite an epic battle between Wiggo & Evans, and Martin & Fabian.
@Power13 - agree with all that. The GC team they put on the road will be crazy strong, perhaps the strongest, as evident by the Dauphine. It also seems difficult to see Cav contest for the points jersey and go well in the Olympics. Hard to imagine him passing on the opportunity to win gold in his home country as the current WC. That would also simplify race tactics with everyone focusing on GC after first week.
I dont think Cav is going to be that big of a deal in the tour for the first couple weeks with the young Peter Sagan winning everything he enters but i question how long he survives the big tour.
I agree with you regrading the conflict. Historically, this game plan has not worked well. For the GC win, it needs to be an almost All-in effort by the whole team to make that happen.
I have read many stories and reports that the Olympic Road Course, is “Cavendish friendly”, in that it should set-up well for a team that is built around a sprinting power-house like Cavendish.
Two Things:
These National teams will be much smaller than Pro Tour trade teams or even the national teams in the World Road Race Championships. I believe it’s only a max of 4 riders? Is this right? If that is the case , it will be hard for the UK team to really control tings the way a Pro Tour trade team like Sky would want to control things in a Pro Tour race.
In another recent article. I have read that this may not be that great a course for Cavendish. That if certain things happen, there could be be some splits and/or he could be dropped.
I dont think Cav is going to be that big of a deal in the tour for the first couple weeks with the young Peter Sagan winning everything he enters
Let’s see Sagan actually win a field sprint against a Tour de France field before we annoint him the new king. Cav has been the most dominating sprinter I have seen in 25 years of cycling spectating and he is proven on all the big stages. The ToC and the Tour de Suisse are not big stages. Without a dedicated lead-out train Cav will have his work cut out for him, but we have seen that Cav going solo and surfing the field still nets a two or three wins against quality opponents. Cav with a decent lead-out is as close to unbeatable a you will ever see.
I hope Sagan can bring an A-game to the Tour; I’m not a huge fan of Cav but I believe part of his domination has been a lack of really top-flight sprinting talent to really test him.
Chad
Was that Zabel/Ulrich/Riis? If so, then Zabel was not the typical sprinter, being able to climb fairly well and get points on days that the big guys did not. He “only” won 12 stages while winning the green jersey six times. I think it is safe to say that Zabel was the better rider at getting points and Cav is a much better pure sprinter.
As for Wiggings, history is for and against him. Armstrong and Indurain both won the Tour after the Dauphine. If you are strong enough to win DL without trying too hard then it works as a good tune-up. Of course, then there is Iban Mayo … and quite a few others who were heros in early June and nowhere in July.
Chad
