That very question was posed last week to Dave Scott during a round table discussion at Kona. His response, which I paraphrase, was classic: “Perhaps you know the winds better than I do.” His point was that the wind is totally unpredictable. While I have no clue what Stadler experienced hours before me, the downhill from Hawi was viciously fast with a dangerous cross-wind, and the last 30 miles was dead in to a nasty headwind. So perhaps the day did fit the pattern you mention. The presence of the wind, on this day, was just plain overwhelming. It was difficult to find any rhythm.
This info is second-hand, but I did hear that observers noted that Stadler was flying after the turnaround with an awesome tailwind. Shortly after he went past, the wind shifted, and when the group came by 10 - 15 minutes later, they were riding much slower and fighting the wind.
Not meant to take anything away from Stadler… he had a great race and (if it wsn’t going to be LVL) I’m glad he got the win… seems like a class act.