Let me preface this by saying I am not expecting any exact answers, I am merely looking for opinions.
So I decided to do a swim time trial today, just to gauge my current fitness. I am currently building toward the HIM in Oceanside this April and wanted to know where I’m at now, so I have an idea on what to expect come race time.
I did a 2100 yard time trial (~1.2 miles) in 28:05, with splits at 13:25 for the 1000, 20:08 for the 1500, and 26:48 for the 2000. I was actually expecting to be a bit slower right now, so this was a pleasant surprise.
I’m just curious on what you think this would translate into for an open water swim. I am sure it would be slower, but by how much do you think?
And like I said, I don’t expect any exact answers, just opinions, so let’s keep the flaming to a minimum please.
I don’t know anything at all, but I kind of think that your open water time would be faster because you can wear a wet suit and you don’t have to slow down for the wall.
Since this is pure speculation, I would say you would be slower for the following reasons:
No wall to push off of every 25 yds.
No clear blue water and lane line to follow.
The ocean is not flat… no clean water you get tossed around a little more than you do in the pool.
Depending upon your wave start you will be dodging people along the swim, in particular the last 500 yds. as it bunches up within the harbor and narrows down.
The best advice would be to get in some ocean swims, so that you are comfortable in the water and with the change of environment from pool to ocean.
I’m sure you know this, but courses very by plus or minus about 60 seconds almost all of the time. GPS placement of the buoys, and wind blowing them off course often causes a course to be long or short. For example, Longhorn 70.3 in Austin last year was about 4 minutes short for your typical 30 min swimmer due to wind blowing the buoys after they’d been set.
That all said, if you are comfortably holding 1:20s per 100 yd in the pool, and you were going at about the effort you plan to push in the race (as opposed to TT pace in the pool) then you will probably be right around 29 minutes assuming the course is measured perfect, and we’ve already decided they never are.
The water is going to be very cold in Oceanside which is going to help keep your HR down and perceived effort low. You’ll be in a wetsuit, and as a 29 minute swim guy/gal, you are going to get away from your wave except for a few of the studs and be in clean water pretty much straight away before you start catching waves ahead.
Just my experience, but I think you can assume your pace will hold as long as you weren’t going exceptionally hard in that swim test. If you were on the edge in your test, then add about 2 minutes, or plan on blowing out on the run, your call.
Thanks for the reply, that was exactly the type of answer I was looking for.
Just to make things easy, I am assuming the course is measured properly, I was swimming at about my race pace (maybe a bit faster, but I plan to be in even better shape come race time), and I will be swimming in a wetsuit.
I would not even worry about it. You are a decent swimmer and you’ll be up there. Place is more important than time, in my opinion. Aim for top (fill-in the number) % of the field, not a certain time. As you know, no amount of pool swimming will prepare you enough for the open water, especially the ocean.
