Such a lousy economy

Lavender Room
24

On the flip side interest rates at at 20 year highs

That’s deceptive because interest rates were insanely low for 20 years. Now they’re back in the range of historical norms.

This is good for savers. (Though bad for financers).

Yes, that is true, but when housing prices have increased as much as they have (well beyond the historical norm rates), those interest rates are not back to historical norms.

EDIT: Also wages have not increased in line with housing prices, so it’s a double whammy to the buyer.

If housing prices collapsed, would that be a sign of a good economy? Talking about housing prices solely from the buyer perspective ignores the fact that each sale involves a seller, too. Buyers don’t like high prices, of course, but that does not mean the economy is in a slump.

I think you nailed it. And I think when most people say the economy sucks, it’s would be more accurate to say cost of living and financially things suck for people. That is reflective of our current economy. We have a huge homeless problem, housing (as mentioned sucks for a lot of people). Cost of food, gas, etc. his too high. Interest rates are high. Travel costs, high. The price of cars both used and new is too high. And salaries are not matching. The stock market is not growing like it was and many stocks are suffering though overall not horrible.

People on this forum tend to do alright financially, but we’re not blind. There are some serious indicators that as a country that people are hurting financially and the debt that people have is maybe starting to negatively affect them. I would say the economy is not prosperous for many right now, so even though indicators say it is not horrible. For many times are very tough. The gap between the haves and have not is growing rapidly.

Really Gas?? I just filled up our ICE vehicle. $3.00 per gallon. That does not seem high at all to me. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

gas is what it was from 2010-2014 and cheaper than last year, sure it was a bit cheaper in 2015-2020.

Food is up, but I don’t know how much. My wife’s sushi has doubled, since 2020, of course it was flat for many years prior to that, so over 10 yrs not sure how much its really gone up annually.

I always wonder, as our election cycle grows, how that impacts these things, every 4 yrs the current admin. did what it could to have a good economy for the election. But in this era, of Trump and flat out lieing is okay. I don’t know what you can believe in the media anymore. State of economy can be measured so many ways. I always thought unemployment was a good measure. Given the contracts the UAW are about to ratify, seems their members will be doing alright. CEO’s in America are still paid way to much, so corporations must be doing okay.

Its funny to me to hear people talk about how the economy is doing and then talk about their investments (stocks and such) most of America doesn’t care about the market cause they don’t have the extra money to invest. So sure the market might be down, but that only impacts the top. Wait the market is up 7% or so this year… Why are we saying its down, or right its given back 5% or so over the last month. Again, how do we determine a bad economy.

I am out of touch. I am on a no income lifestyle right now. My expenses over the last 6 months are what I expect 9 months ago, but that was really the end of the high inflation rapid price increases, from what I have seen.

Oh well, Happy I pulled most of my money out of the market early sept. Now just need to determine when to get back in.

Still think we are in an economy impacted by covid, and historical data doesn’t mean much.

25

Is the average person doing better in America?

Doing better than what?

26

On the flip side interest rates at at 20 year highs

That’s deceptive because interest rates were insanely low for 20 years. Now they’re back in the range of historical norms.

This is good for savers. (Though bad for financers).

Yes, that is true, but when housing prices have increased as much as they have (well beyond the historical norm rates), those interest rates are not back to historical norms.

EDIT: Also wages have not increased in line with housing prices, so it’s a double whammy to the buyer.

If housing prices collapsed, would that be a sign of a good economy? Talking about housing prices solely from the buyer perspective ignores the fact that each sale involves a seller, too. Buyers don’t like high prices, of course, but that does not mean the economy is in a slump.

I think you nailed it. And I think when most people say the economy sucks, it’s would be more accurate to say cost of living and financially things suck for people. That is reflective of our current economy. We have a huge homeless problem, housing (as mentioned sucks for a lot of people). Cost of food, gas, etc. his too high. Interest rates are high. Travel costs, high. The price of cars both used and new is too high. And salaries are not matching. The stock market is not growing like it was and many stocks are suffering though overall not horrible.

People on this forum tend to do alright financially, but we’re not blind. There are some serious indicators that as a country that people are hurting financially and the debt that people have is maybe starting to negatively affect them. I would say the economy is not prosperous for many right now, so even though indicators say it is not horrible. For many times are very tough. The gap between the haves and have not is growing rapidly.

Gas prices are high? Um, no. Not really. I just filled up for under $3 a gallon. Compare to UK prices, over 3 times that.

27

On the flip side interest rates at at 20 year highs

That’s deceptive because interest rates were insanely low for 20 years. Now they’re back in the range of historical norms.

This is good for savers. (Though bad for financers).

Yes, that is true, but when housing prices have increased as much as they have (well beyond the historical norm rates), those interest rates are not back to historical norms.

EDIT: Also wages have not increased in line with housing prices, so it’s a double whammy to the buyer.

If housing prices collapsed, would that be a sign of a good economy? Talking about housing prices solely from the buyer perspective ignores the fact that each sale involves a seller, too. Buyers don’t like high prices, of course, but that does not mean the economy is in a slump.

I think you nailed it. And I think when most people say the economy sucks, it’s would be more accurate to say cost of living and financially things suck for people. That is reflective of our current economy. We have a huge homeless problem, housing (as mentioned sucks for a lot of people). Cost of food, gas, etc. his too high. Interest rates are high. Travel costs, high. The price of cars both used and new is too high. And salaries are not matching. The stock market is not growing like it was and many stocks are suffering though overall not horrible.

People on this forum tend to do alright financially, but we’re not blind. There are some serious indicators that as a country that people are hurting financially and the debt that people have is maybe starting to negatively affect them. I would say the economy is not prosperous for many right now, so even though indicators say it is not horrible. For many times are very tough. The gap between the haves and have not is growing rapidly.

Gas prices are high? Um, no. Not really. I just filled up for under $3 a gallon. Compare to UK prices, over 3 times that.

Prices in Colorado are still over 3.00. Just filled up yesterday. And yes high compared to what they could be. I don’t really care what other countries are paying. They have been paying more than the US for decades.

28

On the flip side interest rates at at 20 year highs

That’s deceptive because interest rates were insanely low for 20 years. Now they’re back in the range of historical norms.

This is good for savers. (Though bad for financers).

Yes, that is true, but when housing prices have increased as much as they have (well beyond the historical norm rates), those interest rates are not back to historical norms.

EDIT: Also wages have not increased in line with housing prices, so it’s a double whammy to the buyer.

If housing prices collapsed, would that be a sign of a good economy? Talking about housing prices solely from the buyer perspective ignores the fact that each sale involves a seller, too. Buyers don’t like high prices, of course, but that does not mean the economy is in a slump.

I think you nailed it. And I think when most people say the economy sucks, it’s would be more accurate to say cost of living and financially things suck for people. That is reflective of our current economy. We have a huge homeless problem, housing (as mentioned sucks for a lot of people). Cost of food, gas, etc. his too high. Interest rates are high. Travel costs, high. The price of cars both used and new is too high. And salaries are not matching. The stock market is not growing like it was and many stocks are suffering though overall not horrible.

People on this forum tend to do alright financially, but we’re not blind. There are some serious indicators that as a country that people are hurting financially and the debt that people have is maybe starting to negatively affect them. I would say the economy is not prosperous for many right now, so even though indicators say it is not horrible. For many times are very tough. The gap between the haves and have not is growing rapidly.

Homelessness has many causes, mostly involving social and housing policies. High rates of homelessness are not because the economy sucks. Boulder has seen a big growth in homelessness, yet McDonalds pays almost $20 an hour for an entry level job here. If anything, it’s an inverse indicator. Cities with booming tech sectors tend to have homelessness — houses have been priced out of their range and supply has not kept up (among other problems). WVa and Miss have two of the lowest homeless rates in the country.

I agree with your main theme: the US has a huge inequality problem.

29

On the flip side interest rates at at 20 year highs

That’s deceptive because interest rates were insanely low for 20 years. Now they’re back in the range of historical norms.

This is good for savers. (Though bad for financers).

Yes, that is true, but when housing prices have increased as much as they have (well beyond the historical norm rates), those interest rates are not back to historical norms.

EDIT: Also wages have not increased in line with housing prices, so it’s a double whammy to the buyer.

If housing prices collapsed, would that be a sign of a good economy? Talking about housing prices solely from the buyer perspective ignores the fact that each sale involves a seller, too. Buyers don’t like high prices, of course, but that does not mean the economy is in a slump.

I think you nailed it. And I think when most people say the economy sucks, it’s would be more accurate to say cost of living and financially things suck for people. That is reflective of our current economy. We have a huge homeless problem, housing (as mentioned sucks for a lot of people). Cost of food, gas, etc. his too high. Interest rates are high. Travel costs, high. The price of cars both used and new is too high. And salaries are not matching. The stock market is not growing like it was and many stocks are suffering though overall not horrible.

People on this forum tend to do alright financially, but we’re not blind. There are some serious indicators that as a country that people are hurting financially and the debt that people have is maybe starting to negatively affect them. I would say the economy is not prosperous for many right now, so even though indicators say it is not horrible. For many times are very tough. The gap between the haves and have not is growing rapidly.

Gas prices are high? Um, no. Not really. I just filled up for under $3 a gallon. Compare to UK prices, over 3 times that.

Prices in Colorado are still over 3.00. Just filled up yesterday. And yes high compared to what they could be. I don’t really care what other countries are paying. They have been paying more than the US for decades.

Not sure what you mean by could be. But as shown in the data I posted above. there really not high.

30

I am paying $4.89 per gallon for regular gas, cash discounted price. If I pay with a credit card, it is 10 cents more.

31

On the flip side interest rates at at 20 year highs

That’s deceptive because interest rates were insanely low for 20 years. Now they’re back in the range of historical norms.

This is good for savers. (Though bad for financers).

Yes, that is true, but when housing prices have increased as much as they have (well beyond the historical norm rates), those interest rates are not back to historical norms.

EDIT: Also wages have not increased in line with housing prices, so it’s a double whammy to the buyer.

If housing prices collapsed, would that be a sign of a good economy? Talking about housing prices solely from the buyer perspective ignores the fact that each sale involves a seller, too. Buyers don’t like high prices, of course, but that does not mean the economy is in a slump.

I think you nailed it. And I think when most people say the economy sucks, it’s would be more accurate to say cost of living and financially things suck for people. That is reflective of our current economy. We have a huge homeless problem, housing (as mentioned sucks for a lot of people). Cost of food, gas, etc. his too high. Interest rates are high. Travel costs, high. The price of cars both used and new is too high. And salaries are not matching. The stock market is not growing like it was and many stocks are suffering though overall not horrible.

People on this forum tend to do alright financially, but we’re not blind. There are some serious indicators that as a country that people are hurting financially and the debt that people have is maybe starting to negatively affect them. I would say the economy is not prosperous for many right now, so even though indicators say it is not horrible. For many times are very tough. The gap between the haves and have not is growing rapidly.

Gas prices are high? Um, no. Not really. I just filled up for under $3 a gallon. Compare to UK prices, over 3 times that.

Prices in Colorado are still over 3.00. Just filled up yesterday. And yes high compared to what they could be. I don’t really care what other countries are paying. They have been paying more than the US for decades.

$2.75 near me. Adjusted for inflation current gas prices are in line with 2014-2020 and lower than 2010-2015.

The pain people are feeling around transportation costs is not due to gas prices but due to the high costs to purchase, and service, a vehicle. New car payments have almost doubled in the last four years. Used car payments are up about 60%. Car insurance rates are up 18% in the last year alone. America has terrible public transportation so for most a car is the only option.

32

And yes high compared to what they could be.

What’s your plan for lowering gas prices?

33

How much longer can we talk about how bad the US economy is when GDP is growing at 4.9% and unemployment is at 3.8%? Especially considering all the economists were predicting a recession this year and all the other major economies have higher unemployment, slower growth and/or higher inflation.

this country is doing great in all aspects especially financially. It’s never been better.

Adjusted for insane inflation gas prices are as low as they’ve ever been.

GDP is through the roof. Unemployment is lower than it’s ever been.

The world is at peace. Our enemies tremble in front of us. Our allies love us.

The border is secure. we are calmly letting people in one at a time because we need people to do the work we wont

Violence and drug use in the US is down.

The US has returned to normal. The competent adults in the room are back in charge. They are upstanding and not corrupt at all.

Anything that you see and feel in your actual life that doesn’t match what I just said above is either

  1. not in the control of the current administration
  2. caused totally by the Trump administration
  3. disinformation (Russian or talk radio)
  4. all of the above.

get back to work and pay no attention to the reality you are feeling and seeing everyday. The beatings will continue until moral is improved or we can figure out a way to move Biden aside and slip Newsome into the race

34

On the flip side interest rates at at 20 year highs

That’s deceptive because interest rates were insanely low for 20 years. Now they’re back in the range of historical norms.

This is good for savers. (Though bad for financers).

Yes, that is true, but when housing prices have increased as much as they have (well beyond the historical norm rates), those interest rates are not back to historical norms.

EDIT: Also wages have not increased in line with housing prices, so it’s a double whammy to the buyer.

If housing prices collapsed, would that be a sign of a good economy? Talking about housing prices solely from the buyer perspective ignores the fact that each sale involves a seller, too. Buyers don’t like high prices, of course, but that does not mean the economy is in a slump.

I think you nailed it. And I think when most people say the economy sucks, it’s would be more accurate to say cost of living and financially things suck for people. That is reflective of our current economy. We have a huge homeless problem, housing (as mentioned sucks for a lot of people). Cost of food, gas, etc. his too high. Interest rates are high. Travel costs, high. The price of cars both used and new is too high. And salaries are not matching. The stock market is not growing like it was and many stocks are suffering though overall not horrible.

People on this forum tend to do alright financially, but we’re not blind. There are some serious indicators that as a country that people are hurting financially and the debt that people have is maybe starting to negatively affect them. I would say the economy is not prosperous for many right now, so even though indicators say it is not horrible. For many times are very tough. The gap between the haves and have not is growing rapidly.

Gas prices are high? Um, no. Not really. I just filled up for under $3 a gallon. Compare to UK prices, over 3 times that.

Prices in Colorado are still over 3.00. Just filled up yesterday. And yes high compared to what they could be. I don’t really care what other countries are paying. They have been paying more than the US for decades.

Not sure what you mean by could be. But as shown in the data I posted above. there really not high.

Well several years ago we were sub $3.00. Actually when I state over $3.00 , Around the corner from me at King Soopers unleaded is $3.59. and that is actually a pretty good price around here.

When I say could be. I believe that the US could be more energy independent and could pump more oil, we could build additional refineries, we could build pipelines to transport the oil where it needs to go cheaper. I do believe that the energy policy of this administration is not friendly to the oil industry and thus they have chosen to look more long term and pull more oil from elsewhere. And that oil from elsewhere is more heavily competed for by other countries as well as impacted more by the war in Ukraine. I can only speculate that the turmoil in the middle east will create a spike in prices as well.

The fact is we have more than enough oil here in the US and North America, to require very little in terms of imports. No we can not just flip a switch, it takes years to plan, drill, build, etc… But we should be using the resources we have until such time as we can truly support green energy. We should not be pushing oil companies away from the US market.

35

When I say could be. I believe that the US could be more energy independent and could pump more oil, we could build additional refineries, we could build pipelines to transport the oil where it needs to go cheaper. I do believe that the energy policy of this administration is not friendly to the oil industry and thus they have chosen to look more long term and pull more oil from elsewhere. And that oil from elsewhere is more heavily competed for by other countries as well as impacted more by the war in Ukraine. I can only speculate that the turmoil in the middle east will create a spike in prices as well.

The fact is we have more than enough oil here in the US and North America, to require very little in terms of imports. No we can not just flip a switch, it takes years to plan, drill, build, etc… But we should be using the resources we have until such time as we can truly support green energy. We should not be pushing oil companies away from the US market.

US energy independence is at its highest point for over 70 years2022 was the 2nd highest oil production year in US History2023 will be the highest oil production year in US historyThere is a surplus of oil pipeline capacity in the US. Oil companies are not being pushed from the US Market.

Agree on the need for more refinery capacity. Unfortunately I doubt that will happen.

Given the turmoil in the middle east and Ukraine I am surprised that oil prices are as low as they are. Partially due to the large jump in US production in the last 3 years.

36

On the flip side interest rates at at 20 year highs

That’s deceptive because interest rates were insanely low for 20 years. Now they’re back in the range of historical norms.

This is good for savers. (Though bad for financers).

Yes, that is true, but when housing prices have increased as much as they have (well beyond the historical norm rates), those interest rates are not back to historical norms.

EDIT: Also wages have not increased in line with housing prices, so it’s a double whammy to the buyer.

If housing prices collapsed, would that be a sign of a good economy? Talking about housing prices solely from the buyer perspective ignores the fact that each sale involves a seller, too. Buyers don’t like high prices, of course, but that does not mean the economy is in a slump.

I think you nailed it. And I think when most people say the economy sucks, it’s would be more accurate to say cost of living and financially things suck for people. That is reflective of our current economy. We have a huge homeless problem, housing (as mentioned sucks for a lot of people). Cost of food, gas, etc. his too high. Interest rates are high. Travel costs, high. The price of cars both used and new is too high. And salaries are not matching. The stock market is not growing like it was and many stocks are suffering though overall not horrible.

People on this forum tend to do alright financially, but we’re not blind. There are some serious indicators that as a country that people are hurting financially and the debt that people have is maybe starting to negatively affect them. I would say the economy is not prosperous for many right now, so even though indicators say it is not horrible. For many times are very tough. The gap between the haves and have not is growing rapidly.

Agreed.

Over the past 15 years my income has grown significantly. I am very fortunate and well off and doing great now. But even as good as I am doing, I have tried to remain aware of how hard it is for many people right now, I feel, and this is my personal opinion, that as peoples income grows they sometimes lose sight of how others are doing, especially if they are living in an area that further blinds it.

Also yes, there are differences in economy versus cost of living, they are intertwined, but not mutually exclusive with each other.

37

I’m in construction. We are a leading indicator for going into and heading out of recessions.

It appears we are heading into a recession as private projects are facing a significant slowdown.

The cost of money has gotten very expensive. As far as multifamily goes, banks are wanting a borrower to place 80% of the loan amount in the bank.

Fortunately for my company, we also work in the primary ed and Healthcare sectors as those are pretty recession proof.

We also build manufacturing. In spite of a large chip plant going in, some support companies are pausing the construction of their new facilities.

38

It’s fairly inevitable that there will be a slowdown given the rise in interest rates. In many ways, it’s been surprising that we haven’t seen more of a slowdown already, and many economists forecasted a mild recession during 2023. That may yet happen in 2024, but even if not a recession, then likely slower growth and a weaker jobs market.
Of course all of this is mostly a result of the rise in global food and energy prices and the associated need to raise interest rates. I think some of the recent upside surprises in economic data in the US have been assisted by some of the Biden legislation, but generally the rise in inflation and policy tightening has been a global - not US-centric - phenomenon.

39

Than say ten years ago. Or pre pandemic.

40

How much longer can we talk about how bad the US economy is when GDP is growing at 4.9% and unemployment is at 3.8%? Especially considering all the economists were predicting a recession this year and all the other major economies have higher unemployment, slower growth and/or higher inflation.

How is your retirement funds? Mine have lost over 20% in 21 and 22. Not great when you are retired.

41

How much longer can we talk about how bad the US economy is when GDP is growing at 4.9% and unemployment is at 3.8%? Especially considering all the economists were predicting a recession this year and all the other major economies have higher unemployment, slower growth and/or higher inflation.

How is your retirement funds? Mine have lost over 20% in 21 and 22. Not great when you are retired.

The S&P was up 26% in 2021. Down 19% in 2022. Who’s managing your retirement funds?

I guess if you’re retired you probably have a larger holding of bonds, which may have lost money as rates went up, but still, those negative returns seem surprising.

Overall the US economy is about the best in the world currently, which is one reason the dollar is so strong. Europe is suffering weak economic activity and still-high rates as the ECB isn’t satisfied the inflation threat is gone. TheUK is suffering too and real wages are well down. China and Asia are suffering from weaker growth and soft exports. China is still struggling to fix its property sector without bursting the bubble.

Mexico is doing relatively well though, and that is in large part because the US economy is outperforming, which means remittances from US based workers are near record levels, as are tourism inflows to Mexico.

42

How much longer can we talk about how bad the US economy is when GDP is growing at 4.9% and unemployment is at 3.8%? Especially considering all the economists were predicting a recession this year and all the other major economies have higher unemployment, slower growth and/or higher inflation.

How is your retirement funds? Mine have lost over 20% in 21 and 22. Not great when you are retired.

The S&P was up 26% in 2021. Down 19% in 2022. Who’s managing your retirement funds?

I guess if you’re retired you probably have a larger holding of bonds, which may have lost money as rates went up, but still, those negative returns seem surprising.

Overall the US economy is about the best in the world currently, which is one reason the dollar is so strong. Europe is suffering weak economic activity and still-high rates as the ECB isn’t satisfied the inflation threat is gone. TheUK is suffering too and real wages are well down. China and Asia are suffering from weaker growth and soft exports. China is still struggling to fix its property sector without bursting the bubble.

Mexico is doing relatively well though, and that is in large part because the US economy is outperforming, which means remittances from US based workers are near record levels, as are tourism inflows to Mexico.

double checked you are correct the drop was about 20% in 22 and another 4% this year.

43

I’m in construction. We are a leading indicator for going into and heading out of recessions.

It appears we are heading into a recession as private projects are facing a significant slowdown.

The cost of money has gotten very expensive. As far as multifamily goes, banks are wanting a borrower to place 80% of the loan amount in the bank.

Fortunately for my company, we also work in the primary ed and Healthcare sectors as those are pretty recession proof.

We also build manufacturing. In spite of a large chip plant going in, some support companies are pausing the construction of their new facilities.

I retired from Skanska USA Civil NYC twelve years ago. I retired from the rebuilding of the World Trade Center but our largest job at that time was a 1 billion dollar underground water treatment plant in the Bronx, we even had a 1 million dollar construction office complex on the site. I was there for three years.

Anyway, I just saw that Skanska is in a three way joint venture on the 28 billion dollar rebuilding of Kennedy Airport. It must be amazing. I’m jealous and sure wish I could be there!