Subprime Auto Loans: The Next Financial Crisis?

During my time consulting with three different franchise car dealers I saw many of these loans written – and people sign for them – that should have never been made. They’re especially common in used vehicle sales situations. They also typically are given to people with poor to bad credit (they’re sometimes known as “bad credit auto loans”) and feature double-digit interest rates running anywhere from 12 percent to whatever the maximum allowable interest rate is in the state in which the loan is originated. The default rate on these loans has always been higher than the rate at which prime-rate loans default, sometimes much higher.

“At the time I got it, I did some numbers in my head, and I thought I could make it work,” he said. “I thought it was a little high… but right now it’s the only place that’s willing to give me a chance to get a car. So I said, ‘I’ll make it work.’”

Woodrum put his $4,000 down that day. But in the end, thanks to the double-digit interest rate, the loan agreement called for him to pay a total price of roughly $45,000, more than double the car’s original price, for a seven-year-old Dodge Ram with 66,000 miles."

The above situation is quite common in the auto sales world. They need a car or truck and many are willing to take on a loan for a vehicle that’s likely not to outlast the loan term, for one. Plus, people taking these loans on are usually amenable to paying for an extra-cost extended warranty, loan protection insurance and so forth.

It’s no wonder that someone two or three years into a loan that has another three or four years to run, on a vehicle with miles typically north of 100,000 and looking at a never-ending series of repair bills that they’ll end up covering fully, because the extended warranty ran out, frequently wash their hands and simply default, taking a chance that they’ll never have to repay the negative balance once the repossessed vehicle sells at auction.

That opens up another problem for them, though, because that balance is often bought by debt brokers who then sell the “paper” (the loan) to collection agencies that specialize in trying to turn that “bad paper” into “good paper” through the legal system (via court-issued judgments and the like). Cavalry SPV is one of the bigger buyers of such bad debt, and they’re aggressive about dragging these folks into court – or getting them to agree to repayment terms on their own.

How Subprime Car Loans Are Ruining Lives And Repeating The Mistakes Of The Housing Crisis

is there a class of used car dealerships that carry high mileage 100,000+ vehicles? I thought anything over 60k would be hard to sell. I’ve certainly been told that when trying to sell an old car. though usually we try have 150k miles before we think of buying a car…

is there a class of used car dealerships that carry high mileage 100,000+ vehicles? I thought anything over 60k would be hard to sell. I’ve certainly been told that when trying to sell an old car. though usually we try have 150k miles before we think of buying a car…

It’s tough to get a lender to underwrite a loan for a vehicle with more than 100,000 miles on it, but anything under that mileage amount is good to go. Community credit unions and local banks will fund those sub-100k cars. And if the miles are low enough to qualify for a franchise dealer’s certified pre-owned (CPO) program on used cars that are the same make as sold new by the dealer, the profit can be quite lucrative.

From my personal experience gleaned from consulting with these dealers, Credit Acceptance Corporation (CAC) and similar subprime lenders of last resort will fund 100k-plus vehicles but the money a dealer makes from CAC depends on the numerical rating (or “loan quality”) assigned by CAC to the buyer and the vehicle. In almost all cases, those buyers will need a decent down payment of $1,000 to $4,000, too.

Oftentimes, those kinds of high-mileage vehicles may not net the dealer much in the way of profit, but if you have a vehicle like that on your lot – and you don’t want to lose money on it by wholesaling it or sending it to a local auto auction (most used car managers at dealers, however, will almost never give more for the car than they can sell it for to a wholesaler or at auction) – you’ll go with CAC if you’re an approved dealer of theirs. They’re a real pain in the a$$, but they’ll get the loan done and you’ll get a car in your customer’s hands, plus some extra backend lovin’ from CAC if those loans you send them end up performing well.

I think stocks are overvalued.
I think bonds are overvalued.
I think real estate is overvalued (in many places).
Things don’t stay overvalued forever.
But who knows how or when this overvaluation will adjust.

Financial crisis MIGHT be about things being overvalued.
But financial crisis is mostly about PANIC.
And panic is NOT rational.

Sub-prime mortgages were NOT the cause of the 2008 meltdown.
They were simply a good scapegoat, that people could point to, when trying to justify their own crazy behavior.

That said sub-prime mortgages, were a huge problem. So much leverage. Such a huge market. Touching every level of society.
Quite a good scapegoat really.

Subprime auto loans…
NOT such a good scapegoat.
Not a huge market. Not penetrating every part of society.

Who knows what people will blame when they start to panic.
But it would be stupid to blame auto loans.

You realize this is the business in which mopdahl is in, do you not?

You realize this is the business in which mopdahl is in, do you not?

What, the paper (loan) side or the car side? And no, I didn’t. That’s fine with me, though. Most dealers I know are okay and aren’t out to rip someone off on loans, especially the franchise dealers.

You realize this is the business in which mopdahl is in, do you not?

What, the paper (loan) side or the car side? And no, I didn’t. That’s fine with me, though. Most dealers I know are okay and aren’t out to rip someone off on loans, especially the franchise dealers.

High interest rate auto loans for those with poor credit.

Congratulations, you’re only 10 months behind the crack reporting squad at HuffPo:

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/11911206

Yes, some similarities. Market is a fraction of the home loan market though.

You realize this is the business in which mopdahl is in, do you not?

What, the paper (loan) side or the car side? And no, I didn’t. That’s fine with me, though. Most dealers I know are okay and aren’t out to rip someone off on loans, especially the franchise dealers.

High interest rate auto loans for those with poor credit.

You can make a TON of money in those loans but you have to work hard to ensure they perform (i.e. don’t default anytime soon). Those loans are also packaged with other subprime loans and securitized much as subprime mortgages are, and sold on the financial markets, but that’s high finance to me, and I’m no expert on that. And there’s nothing inherently unethical about such lending, as long as the loans are underwritten honestly and dealers and lenders are being honest and fair with each other and the borrowers.

Dealership F&I (“finance and insurance”) managers are on pay plans, the same as most sales and service people in those organizations. Good F&I guys are worth their weight in gold, believe me. I know a lot of F&I folks that don’t like to work with subprime loans because they can take some time to structure and they might not make the F&I guy much money. Salespeople often take a “mini” commission, or a flat rate commission of $50 or $100, tops… and that’s after putting several or more hours into getting the vehicle sold and then delivered.

There are dealers, though, who make a good living out of subprime buyers, and their F&I people work with subprime lenders quite closely. Like I said; getting the loan through underwriting can sometimes be difficult, but lucrative in the end. This is especially true when it comes to used cars, which is where the real gross profit on a car can be found, including for some classes of high-interest loans.

Congratulations, you’re only 10 months behind the crack reporting squad at HuffPo:

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/11911206

Yes, some similarities. Market is a fraction of the home loan market though.

I’ve been screaming about subprime lending in other fora for a couple years now. No one listens. :wink:

It’s predatory lending. Mopdahl tried to justify it as well. But, at the end of the day, it’s nothing more than preying on people in desperate situations - many through their own poor decisions, but even more who are struggling just to make ends meet.

I think bonds are overvalued.

What bonds?

U.S. Government bonds are little better than cash. Quality corporate bonds barely keep up with inflation themselves.

I hold a bunch of muni bonds just for safety, but they’re about as unsexy as my grandmother, and have probably barely tread water in value over the ~10 years I’ve owned them.

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Muni bonds are an interesting asset. I work for a software company that tracks all muni bonds and obligors (~1.2 million muni bonds) and material events that affect a bond. The platform also performs surveillance on companies, both public and private, and material events that affect public/private debt placements, etc. Muni bonds can perform well if you’re choosing very wisely and willing to trade but can be a soft gain if you sit and hold which most do. Also some new regulations coming to address volatility in the secondary bond market. (The software platform uses Artificial Intelligence algorithms to analyze massive amounts of data).

We’ve been looking at high interest credit card debt and the performance of the banks who issue such high risk debt, great returns if very tightly managed.

Don’t see the high risk car loan market as material to the overall economy at this point.

Subprime Auto Loans: The Next Financial Crisis?
I’d say no because:

1.) The underlying market – typically used cars – has not been the subject of speculation nor is it overvalued.
2.) Cars are a liquid asset

I doubt it alone is the next crisis but the outlook for car manufacturers may not be so good. As you outlined in a previous thread average car loans for new cars in US are now somewhere north of 5 years term. Meaning that those folks won’t be in market for a new car anytime soon. Very few people are buying cars for cash either.

It’s predatory lending. Mopdahl tried to justify it as well. But, at the end of the day, it’s nothing more than preying on people in desperate situations - many through their own poor decisions, but even more who are struggling just to make ends meet.Ther

There are definitely predatory lenders out there, no doubt. Not trying to justify the lending matrix these places use when it comes to FICO score and other credit criteria when they make their loans. Their reps often visit the dealers in their lending network and go over what they call their ‘product lines’ and encourage the dealers and their F&I people to use those products. I can tell you that going with traditional prime-rate funding sources whenever possible is oftentimes far more preferable for both the dealer and his customers. But some dealers make a conscious decision to troll the subprime market and all that that implies, to be honest.

The lender reps would say that the money is priced (i.e. the interest rate and other fiscal terms) according to risk, and that high-risk borrowers pay commensurately higher interest rates, but that’s not strictly true in many cases, especially when dealers may be allowed to ‘bump’ that rate by 1 or 2 points without their customers – the potential borrowers – knowing about it. That’s the seamy side of the finance business when it comes to car sales, I can tell you. And like I said, a good F&I guy at a dealer, especially in the used car sales side of the house (which is its own profit center when it comes to a franchise new car dealer), is worth his weight in gold.

I’ll tell you this, too: I’ve dealt with several local used car lots in the past, all of whom offer minimum $700 referral fees to salespeople at new car dealerships if they send customers their way who they couldn’t get qualified at their own dealerships (or who they know they won’t be able to get qualified). The ‘fee’ is paid out to them upon successful sale and financing at those used car lots. Now, if those lots can afford to pay out a minimum of $700 to a salesperson for sending them someone they sell a vehicle to who finances through their own lenders, that should tell you something about the kind of money that used car lot is going to make on gross profit from the sale of one of their vehicles, pluse financing, front-end and back-end.

I think stocks are overvalued.
I think bonds are overvalued.
I think real estate is overvalued (in many places).
Things don’t stay overvalued forever.
But who knows how or when this overvaluation will adjust.

Financial crisis MIGHT be about things being overvalued.
But financial crisis is mostly about PANIC.
And panic is NOT rational.

Sub-prime mortgages were NOT the cause of the 2008 meltdown.
They were simply a good scapegoat, that people could point to, when trying to justify their own crazy behavior.

That said sub-prime mortgages, were a huge problem. So much leverage. Such a huge market. Touching every level of society.
Quite a good scapegoat really.

Subprime auto loans…
NOT such a good scapegoat.
Not a huge market. Not penetrating every part of society.

Who knows what people will blame when they start to panic.
But it would be stupid to blame auto loans.

What caused the 2008 meltdown?

The auto loan market is too small to matter.

The next financial crisis is on the books of the banks and if I’m right will lead to self feeding sell off in the market. There’s also geopolitical to take into account which trumps all (not a pun).

The auto loan market is too small to matter.

The next financial crisis is on the books of the banks and if I’m right will lead to self feeding sell off in the market. There’s also geopolitical to take into account which trumps all (not a pun).

Agreed. I think the linked article in my OP mentioned that the total of loans out in the auto market is about $1 trillion, whereas the mortgage total was about $9 trillion. I think the amount of student loan debt out there is about $1.2 trillion, which worries fiscal hawks more.

The article tries to get around that (and Jalopnik is somewhat left-leaning in terms of its editorial content) by citing an economist who discusses a cascade effect: buyer takes on an onerous auto loan, defaults and loses car, loses job because he lost his car, can’t pay other bills, causing even more chaos in the economy, and so forth. I’m not so sure that’ll work out that way, mainly because it’s still pretty easy to get financed on a car, even after losing one to a repo.