Obama rises int he polls and the market takes a big dump. hmmm
Don’t take this the wrong way…but I’ve been thinking about you a lot this week. I almost bumped the thread on Monday or Tuesday, but we were still at 12.8 and I thought we might not see 800 down. Now I am not so convinced.
Although I did dip my toe into some GE towards the close today.
Well you both missed an easy layup!
The market did briefly break through 130000 a couple of times at the start of the month, so I was indeed wrong.
Well you both missed an easy layup!
The market did briefly break through 130000 a couple of times at the start of the month, so I was indeed wrong.
I would have thought there would have been more press if the market hit 130000. 
Oh, and I meant 11.8 in my previous post, not 12.8…but you get the idea.
Obama rises int he polls and the market takes a big dump. hmmm
McCain talks about drilling and nuclear and the market takes a big dump, hmmm.
Any other spurious correlations you want to note that are convenient to your “beliefs”?
McC is not going to win so why would the market care? Ask Matt.
McC is not going to win so why would the market care? Ask Matt.
That’s pretty deep thinking on your part. Of course you ignore the fact that Goldman downgraded all the banks, which are losing more money, and oil hitting $140. But those couldn’t hurt the market. I’m sure it was all about Obama.
That’s pure genius. You’re probably in the wrong line of work.
Bad day today?
Bad day today?
Actually I did okay, which is to say that I didn’t get crushed because owned some oil and natural gas. But I find it incredibly irritating when people who know nothing about the market, which is 99.99% of all people, then say “well the market was down, because is looking up in the polls.” First of all, the market doesn’t dictate jackshit other than what traders think. Second of all, even the notion that one can connect events with market reaction is often a dubious one at best. Unless you watch the market and can recognize the reactions on a contemporaneous basis, you’re talking out of your ass, and I’m pretty sure that stock market traders weren’t poised with their orders, just waiting for the Gallup numbers to come out. But hey, if you think Obama is more important to the market than the price of oil, then by all means put your money where your mouth is, otherwise talk is less than cheap.
And of course, the market has in general performed better under Democratic administrations, but that fact is usually conveniently left out of the conversation. Larry Kudlow always leaves it out, just like he leaves out discussion of his past raging coke habit.
thanks for the lengthy response but maybe you could just lighten up a few ticks since I was just funnin around.
thanks for the lengthy response but maybe you could just lighten up a few ticks since I was just funnin around.
Fair enough. It just reminded me of this one yokel who said something similar to me in 1992 regarding Clinton being up on Bush in the polls. I was sitting there wondering, what exactly is it that he thinks I should do here with this “information.” Well, I guess I’m going to go out and just change my vote, because whatever the stock market says today about anything must be the absolute arbiter of how everybody should think. It was so insipid that I haven’t forgotten it since. Its right up there with a woman who said to me the day after election day that she thought Clinton was a “one-termer.” I thought that was pretty impressive, being able to foretell the future without any relevant information whatsoever, evidently a skill imbued upon all conservative Republicans.
the man controls the elections and the stock market. we are all powerless.
the man controls the elections and the stock market. we are all powerless.
As a trader once said to me years ago - the market goes up, the market goes down, and afterwards people concoct some narrative for it to explain to themselves how it works. Doesn’t make it so, however.
Do I hear 9000?
Yeh I was told this exact same thing by my “Financial planner” right before the big dump in 2000. Seems she was wrong then, I’m guessing it’s wrong now.
~Matt
I recall a time I decided to see what a broker who cold-called me could do. This was near the height of the .com bubble, and I was young, unmarried, had way too much disposable income, and way too little understanding of the stock market. I opened an account and told him to see what he could do. In the mean time, I had my little E*Trade account that I was playing with. He lost quite a bit more money than I did, and I knew nothing.
Near the end, I remember him calling to say he needed more money. I said no thanks, but see if you can make back what you lost with what’s left. He decided to put it into something he thought would be a good, safe bet… Turned out to be WorldCom. Sure glad I didn’t give him any more money. Also, I hope he’s in a new line of work.
My dad gets cold calls from brokers occasionally. I never have. I wonder why that is.
Thankfully, there was no WorldCom in my account. Unfortunately, I’ve seen Palm, Excelsior Henderson, and McLeod. None of them in a good way.
***Do I hear 9000? ***
you had to say it didn’t you
NUTS
I was at a thoroughly depressing breakfast conference today where a guy showed a couple of slides that tracked the rise in US debt in the last 30 years with the comparative rise in the stock market.
His analysis is that our whole economy since the early 80s has been a false one, built on debt, deferred spending, and writing IOUs that we’ll never be able to honor. It is not an economy based upon innovation, production, and investment.
He predicted that it if we changed our ways today and made a 180 degree turn towards a more sustainable economy it would take 50 years to repair the mistakes of the last 30.
Basically he was saying every company and stock in your portfolio is vastly over valued by magnitudes of X3 or X4.
I had 3 cups of coffee.
His analysis is that our whole economy since the early 80s has been a false one, built on debt, deferred spending, and writing IOUs that we’ll never be able to honor. It is not an economy based upon innovation, production, and investment.
I’m no market guru but this is pretty much my take on things since the late 70’s. In short we’ve been “Exporting” our labor and not producing much. We’ve been “Expanding” our economy off the backs of others labor and debt rather than a typical growth off our own labor, innovation and investment.
Been saying for years the sooner we regulate ourselves the less “Painful” it will be. We never got around to regulating ourselves
~Matt