LA was quoted saying the following, “Tomorrow is the real one, it is a heck of a day, the hardest day of the Tour. There is no pretending tomorrow.”
So, what does this mean, if anything? Have the poker stakes gone up? Has Lance put all his chips into the pot and perhaps has been saving himself for one final “Look”?
Perhaps it’s not wanting the drama and/or race to end, but something tells me that maybe, just maybe, the fat lady has sung yet. Or, she may be singing, while sitting on top of Alberto…
**Has Lance put all his chips into the pot and perhaps has been saving himself for one final “Look”? **
For aerobike, and to save another week of hearing how AC is the drug infested devil incarnate, and how Lance is the signle greatest athlete to ever walk on earth, I hope so.
With 15km downhill before the finish, a time trial the next day, and the Ventoux to finish the stage the day after, I’d be very surprised to see one of those hoping to win the Tour try anything.
I think the race will be won on Ventoux but I also expect the likes of Shleck and Wiggins to try and make a move tomorrow, knowing that the Astana boys are very good TTists. There may be lots of attacks on yellow tomorrow by a lot of teams to try and “break” him. Astana is too strong with Kloden and numbers 21 and 22 to let anything get away. Contador has not shown to be even close to cracking and Lance certainly showed today that he can close the gap on the big boys. It’s too bad Levi is out for this. He looked like he had good form and could have made things even more interesting. The climb starts early, breaks may be difficult to keep so it may be a downhill run to a sprint finish for the top GC guys.
Well, Andy Schleck has put so much pressure on himself for this stage so I’ll pick him, 1:01 ahead of Alberto.
Dave in VA
Andy is a hell of a rider. But, honestly, I just can’t see that happening. AC made it look effortless to mark Schleck’s every move this morning. I don’t think that there is any chance that Contador or Brunyeel (sp?) would let Andy go off intentionally with only two real days left. And I just don’t think Andy had the legs to drop AC.
I think it will be more interesting to see, if Andy attacks and AC sucks his wheel, who else can hang? Kloden looked great today, Lance apparently still has some power in the legs, and is Wiggins for real?
Regardless of what happens, it should be fun to watch.
I predict a Frank Schelck suicide mission, hoping to separate Astana so that they Andy can attack Contador late in the stage. I don’t see that being successful, but it more likely Astana would let Frank get away for a few. I can’t see Andy getting away unless fogets why he is there.
Contador had a day off today, and gets another one tomorrow. He’s only going to do exactly what is necessary to cover Bradley Wiggins, Andy Schleck can have a little more of a free reign, but not too much. Stage 17 could eliminate folks, but it is unlikely that a Tour-winning move will be launched. Its like the swim in a tri, can’t win the race there, but you could lose it.
Why? - He’s the wild-card in my son and my Tour de France pool teams. He almost pulled it off the other day. He’s had a few days to recover and now go back at it.
I predict a Frank Schelck suicide mission, hoping to separate Astana so that they Andy can attack Contador late in the stage. I don’t see that being successful, but it more likely Astana would let Frank get away for a few. I can’t see Andy getting away unless fogets why he is there.
Cycling strategists, help me out here. Doesn’t Astana just have to hang with who they perceive to be threats? How does Frank Schleck cranking up the tempo hurt Astana? Aren’t Astana three of the top five contenders? If Andy Schleck or Wiggins takes off how does that hurt Astana more than whatever contender they are hanging with?
Lance has spent the last few days on the road conducting job interviews since news of a sponsor for his team came through.He has been seen chatting to Andy and Frank and has been recruiting others along the way and stage 16 was a chance to show Lance just how strong each of the job applicants are.Lance passed them all on the final coupe of k’s on the last climb just to show who is boss and has Johan compiling a list of his own which they will compare after the final “job interview” on stage 17.
During the TT there will be a mysterious “mechanical” on Contadors bike costing him serious time.
The list of prospective riders for Lances team will be “leaked” on the night before the Ventoux and then on the mountain the Schleck brothers will isolate and slow Contador while Cadel,Wiggins,Kloden,Popyvich and Sastre drag Lance to the top of Ventoux for the stage win he gave away years ago.
Lance gets his 8th win and with Johan,assembles the strongest team in history for 2010.
I had too many coffees’ at my mates bike store today.He is German and doesn’t want Contador to win so we made up the story of what we would like to see happen.
Let’s assume that Astana likes their position and feels no need to attack. Assuming that is the case, your assumption is reasonably accurate. However, they are not going to let any of the contenders go up the road without covering their move, that includes Frankie. The strategy would be Frankie goes, and someone with Astana goes with him; let’s call is Kloden for now. With Kloden gone, you have Contador and Armstrong together. If Schleck is able to push the tempo and drop Armstrong (I’m sorry aerobike, I know I you are crushed and that I know nothing about cycling) he’s got Contador isolated and a chance to do something if he really is the stronger cyclist. He’s not but I think you’ve got to give it a shot. Astana is clearly not going to let Andy or Wiggo go, at this point they are contenders for the podium.
If Schleck is able to push the tempo and drop Armstrong (I’m sorry aerobike, I know I you are crushed and that I know nothing about cycling) he’s got Contador isolated and a chance to do something if he really is the stronger cyclist.
Isn’t that what Schleck tried today? Is the argument that he didn’t try it hard enough? Or that he did try and couldn’t break Contador? Which then allowed Lance back onto the group. (No disrespect to his effort to get there)
I think it was a later, as opposed to the former. I thought Frank and Andy looked at each other a lot, which gave me the sense that one wasn’t doing what the other expected. Now they wasted a day (in terms of improving their position) and they are 2:30 behind, so they have to do something. If they leave it for post-TT they are basically standing in line with everyone else.
If they leave it for post-TT they are basically standing in line with everyone else.
I guess more than a few guys have to be thinking “Am I the strongest guy here?” If yes, you don’t do anything tomorrow except not lose time and concentrate on the TT to move up and Ventoux to win. If no, you start thinking about picking up time tomorrow. Somehow.
Lance may have said that AC was the strongest rider, but he didn’t necessarily say that he was the “smartest” rider and perhaps still has a lot to learn…No?
Early on Astana does the tempo as usual. Then on the 3rd climb the Saxo Bank boys ramp up the speed and blow a lot of guys out the back of the bunch. At that point Wiggins finally attacks, followed, by Andy S. Lance and Kloden who are at their “limit” are unable to help sit in and watch AC brings them back over and over again. Repeat on climb number four. Finally on climb 5 AC, cracks from not eating enough and the race is on. Wiggins and Schleck cross the summit together and start a 2 man tt to the finish and get in 15 seconds ahead of Lance and Kloden and three minutes ahead of a worn out AC.
Heading into the TT the GC would be:
Wigginns
Lance
AC
Kloden
Schleck
Even if its not true, it sure would make for an exciting last couple of days!