Two hard climbs and a downhill finish. Which riders will benefit from this profile? Will any be able to stay away from the peleton or will it come back together at the end?
Two hard climbs and a downhill finish.
It’s these downhill finishes that are sucking all the life out of this tour.
I hope this does not happen, but this is likely what will happen.
Whoever is in second or third in the polka-dot jersey will go on the attack early to get the points at the top of the first big climb. This will draw out the usual stage winning opportunists( Voekler et al) and they will bet a big break rolling. Some of the smarter teams that have guys in the top -10 GC will send guys up the road to be in the break, so should they fall aprt at some point they can drop back and help put the GC guy on the 30K descent to the finish.
Meanwhile everyone will sit on Astana/Contador and wait, and wait and wait . .
Here’s what should happen - All none Astana GC contenders start attacking like crazy right out of the gate. then Start actually working together if they get a break going, not just looking out for themselves and put Contador and Astana on the defensive.** **Chance of this happening = Zero
Garmin will try to put VdV into an early break. He’s close enough on GC to be dangerous… force Astana to spend their matches, then Wiggo counters!!! That['s what I’m hoping for 
I think I like Lance more as an underdog than as the leader. He probably isn’t going to win but what a great ride bridging the gap on petite St. Bernard. Great drama!