EE and Phonak both have the very strong 1/2 punches for the mountains. The stage seam perfect for a relatively early break of strong GC threats. Tyler was talking yesterday about how he had pre-rode most of stage 10. The same thing the he did last year for Stage 16 - preview a stage that the other GC contenders thought would be a nothing stage.
Imagine if a couple of no-name riders from Liberty Seguros, CSC, EE, and Phonak go early. CSC been active all tour and they want to get Basso on the podium. Then up the first cat 2 climb you get Zubeldia, Sevilla, Sastre, Nozal riding away. Later on Heras, Mayo, Hamilton and maybe Basso attack either on the Cat 1 or the Last cat 2 climb to bridge up.
Armstrong has shown in the past he is best when he only has to cover and make one attack per stage. He always gets his gap in the first 15 minutes of his attacks and its always the last climb.
CSC is willing to throw down, Tyler hinted at Phonak throwing down in yesterday’s news conference, E-E doesn’t seam to have given up based upon them still riding at the front, and ONCE used to always be willing the throw down. So hopefully I’m not going to be getting any work done tomorrow.
<< Somebody will probably flame me for this, but I predict an early attack by Virenque and Bettini. Maybe with the young Brioches rider that made such a balsy getaway attempt last year too in the break. >>
I was thinking the same thing for the first break. Bettine and Virenque pulled a similar move last year if I recall correctly.
Stage 10 is tomorrow… I won’t post a spoiler since I don’t have an Internet connection at home… Eurosport is broadcasting the WHOLE stage LIVE! Oh yeah BABY! :-)))
i’d be shocked if any postal riders get into a break. i don’t recall them using that tactic in any races in the past–at least at the tdf.
as other posters mentioned, i think the stage is tailor made for a breakaway. bettini and virenque are good guesses. i will be interested to see if mayo tries to make a move. that could shake things up. might also show whether mayo feels he is still a contender or not or if he is shooting for the kom jersey…
i think this could be a stage where some of the gc guys test each other a bit. i could see t-mob, usps, or phonak trying to push the pace on some of the climbs to see if any of the big gc guns show signs of weakness.
“i’d be shocked if any postal riders get into a break. i don’t recall them using that tactic in any races in the past–at least at the tdf.”
mclamb6,
I’m sure I’ll be corrected if I am wrong on this, but didn’t Postal send riders up the road on more than one breakaway last year? Wasn’t part of the benefit of this strategy was that the rider up the road could fall back and help Lance as Lance closed the gap and caught the breakaway group. This tactic proved very successful for Postal on at least two occasions.
I’d be surprised if they didn’t employ the same strategy again this year, since it worked so well last year and it is much easier on the team (conserving team strength). Its easier to fall back and pull someone forward than it is to come forward and then pull someone farther forward.
sending a rider in a break is a solid tactic, as it often puts two(at least) riders in the lead group once things come together. i just don’t recall postal using it in the tdf. saeco uses that tactic really well in the giro. but i think the competition is a bit deeper though in the tdf, which limits the effectiveness of that strategy. the reason i would be surprised if postal used the strategy is that it could burn out one of the key riders for later on in the race.
again, not questioning the strategy, just don’t remember them using it is all. seems like bruyneel prefers to let the entire team control the race from the front of the peloton and work in that fashion to limit breaks.
I think the GC contenders all sit in tomorrow. The stage is VERY long and hard. No uphill finish. I think those wanting king of the mountains will try to break away…but I don’t see any GC contender trying to get away. But tomorrow and Thursday are hard enough that if any of them are weak, they could lose time. The Peloton will not necessarily finish all together on either day.
I think Friday and Saturday are the real fireworks. Everyone will attack on Friday. Mayo, Hamilton, Heras, even Ulrich. Oh ya, and that Armstrong guy too.
Landis went up the road last year in the Vuelta for Heras. It worked to perfection as they, with some other riders (Sevilla one of them) broke Once’s back. Landis met up with Heras at the top of the last climb, they all descended together, and then road a great paceline to the end of the stage. It was the beginning of the end for Nozal. Sound like a familar stage set-up?
However, I agree with others, none of the contenders will start anything tomorrow. Friday will be good, but Saturday is the big day.
The only time I remember for sure they did it was on a breakaway maybe 2 years ago…Floyd Landis was sent out with a group. As I remember though, the stage was a bit flat, so I am not sure what the point was unless it was to help mark any potential threats. **I think that USPS sent both Beltran and Rubiera ahead in breaks last year in the Tour. Rubiera was in one of the first breaks that got reeled in today. **