Are you really suggesting that it’s sad that I hear something on the “Worldwide Leader in Sports” college football special, and don’t invest my own time to research to see if what they’re saying is correct … as if their my statistical analysis resources are somehow greater than theirs? When I post player statistics and schedule results from ESPN’s website, should I call the coach/AD at each college and verify before posting them? =) I know we get pretty anal about some of the discussions here, but calling it sad that I quoted an ESPN College Football Analyst is a bit much, dontcha think?
Not quite sure how Sagarin forms the strength of schedule rating. According to his numbers, Notre Dame played a tougher schedule than Ohio State, LSU, Louisville, Auburn, Oklahoma, Texas, etc.
By his rankings, Stanford played the toughest schedule with 4 ranked teams … #21 Oregon, #12 Notre Dame, #9 USC, #21 Cal (rankings at time of game).
It’s also clear that Sagarin uses end of year rankings or some other combo, because he has Ohio State listed as being 1-0 against top 10 teams. I think we can all agree they beat (at that time) #2 Texas, and #2 Michigan. How that doesn’t count as “2 wins against top 10 teams” I don’t know, because if Ohio State lost to Texas (and Texas stayed high ranking due to the win), it sure would count as a loss against a top 10 team.
So, teams like Ohio State get punished because their wins against Texas and Iowa destroyed those team’s seasons and/or top rankings. So, with his formula, the teams with the toughest SOS are the teams that LOST to ranked teams (pushing their opponents rankings even higher). Beating ranked teams actually hurts your SOS because they are destined to be lower ranked after the loss? IMO, that’s worse than taking the ranking “at that time”, even if they include (the dreaded) pre-season rankings. SO, USC gets credit for thumping top 10 Arkansas when Arkansas was an unranked team and McFadden wasn’t doing much.
The schedule doesn’t account for games played against teams that were tough early and then faded or suffered injuries (killing your SOS) or teams that were lowly touted early on but improved drastically as the year went along (signifcantly raising your SOS). Example, Michigan could have beaten #1 Ohio State, and then the following week Smith gets hurt and the Buckeyes lose the last games, fall to #11, and Michigan doesn’t get crdit for a win over a top 10 team. Weird.
IMO, that rating system gives too much credit to end of year rankings (the early season ranking drop out of his formula once all teams are “connected”), doesn’t account enough for rankings at the time of the game, and gives too much credit to playing games against teams ranked #20-#30. But, that’s just me.