Its gotta happen sooner or later, probabaly sooner given the current situation: Will the economy change/affect you tri racing? Fewer races? Less bling? Will NAS actually not sell out one of its events? Something has to give. Thoughts?
I’ll do fewer races of which will be local as they are usually less expensive in fees and travel time.
I started cutting back on races and equipment a couple of years ago. Less equipment means less confusion. I think this is why we are headed for a recession. I am just not spending enough money on triathlon. Its all my fault.
Not sure which way this will head, but anectdotal reports from key tri retailers that I am in communication with regularly say that off-season sales have been good and early season sales are off to strong start.
Surely there will be some impact due to the current economic factors that are in play, what that impact is and how it will manifest itself remain to be seen, but from what I can tell so far, everything seems to be normal to better than average!
My guess is that we will see a slow down in newcomers coming into he sport - the barrier costs are getting to be very high. However, the growth in newcomers over the last 5 or so years has been off-the-scales, so even a slowdown may be hardly noticeable. The upside to this is that MANY newcomers in the past 3 - 5 years bought entry level equipment to get going and are now looking to make an up-grade.
Given the forthcoming economic stimulus checks, my triathlon budget is getting an IM entry and a wheelcover subsidy this year.
On one side there is the slowing economy but the other side is the growth of the sport. I think the latter will win. I am an expert cheapskate and have always added little to the economy so I won’t be affected.
Excellent question. Premier events like NAS Ironman events I doubt are at any risk. They might sell out in hours or even days instead of minutes. But there clearly appears to be much more demand then supply there. So even if you see a reduction in demand, it still most likely won’t get to the level of supply. Some marginal events may struggle, and I would argue that isn’t such a bad thing. Recessions are the business worlds version of natural selection where those that are run poorly are weeded out, and that is typically a healthy thing.
Where retailers will struggle is probably the highest end of certain components. For example someone like Zipp. It is agreed by most they make great wheels. But I think it will become a lot harder for people to rationalize the difference in prices between comparable wheels. People are starting to think more rationally and do a cost benefit analysis. If a Zipp set costs $2200, and a similar profile wheel from a reputable competitor can be had for $1200. You will see a lot more people struggling to justify that extra $1000 because they can’t quantify $1000 of value between the two wheels to justify it. Is the Zipp wheel faster. Probably. How much? Probably measured in the seconds an hour. Tough to justify the cost/benefit for a MOP person, even if they have the funds.
You also have to see where the recession is hitting the hardest. In general, triathletes are by and large white-collar professionals. If a recession hits the blue-collar manufacturing sector, the effect is minimal. This recession is clearly hitting the financial sector very hard. There are a lot of triathletes in that industry. Also, a lot of people though they had a house that used to be worth more then it is worth now. All of that factors into the mindset when spending.
For most people, especially the kind of people that participate in triathlon, what has changed? If you have a salary job and a fixed rate mortgage, is 2008 really so different from previous years? Gas is more expensive, but it is still a tiny part of my monthly expenses. If anything I commute to work more on my bike which increases my equipment spending and fitness which in turn makes me more likely to race.
My guess is the airline fees will have the biggest impact on race participation, but even that I’m not sure will be significant. I’ve did 25 tri’s in 2006 and didn’t fly once.
My guess is that we will see a slow down in newcomers coming into he sport - the barrier costs are getting to be very high. <<
Well, we aren’t seeing this currently in the Bay Area. Our club continues to add first timers, most who have joined in the past month.
clm
Steve:
I agree completely. I think the major problem in growth that triathlons will face in the coming years is the cost of entering races. Will rising gas prices factor in, sure, but that’s an extra $50 or so per race and I doubt that will deter anyone from driving, say, to Lake Placid for the IM. What would deter someone is paying $600 for an entry fee. Heck, a little duathlon here in MD that I was goign to use as a training race is going to cost me a $90 entry fee and I need to weigh that with just making my only training.
For many, the biggest expenditure was equipment and this used to be a huge conern. With more fit and physioology knowlege than ever, someone on a well-fit Cervelo Dual could beat someone on a poorly fit $10,000 Pinarello Montello. Additionally, with the dvent of asian carbon manufacturers, the entry costs to aero-equipment is much lower these days.
Also, we need to realize that triathlon is not a sport like baseball or football. It is, in the long run, a minor player right now. Plus, unlike baseball, football, or basketball, the SES demographics of the average triathlete tends to skew very highly and along with that comes more disposable income.
Finally, make no mistake, the economic slowdown has little to do with people spending money on small purchases. It owes itself to credit being too overextended and banks simply running out of funds. This might impact the ability of some store to carry stock, but I doubt it’ll dramatically impact the people wanting to purchase gear.
Bob
Here’s a wrinkle to consider, and it was one reason for my post: With the devaluation of the US dollar, is the industry getting supported more by foreign interest? If I am Canadian (not), I am excited about the situation, and I will likely get more “boom for the buck.” But, conversely, with the increase in cost for american goods domestically (gas, milk, bread, etc), will this impact people’s choices for both gear and for races? I think it will, though it hasn’t impacted me yet. I anticipate it will in 2 years when my son is college age and we have to apply for financial aid, etc.
I am still racing as much as I had planned before the bad news began brewing. However, I am doing more local races than I would have otherwise. I’m also thinking about getting a much more fuel efficient car for when I do travel. I won’t be doing an Ironman this year, but that is not as much about cost as it is a choice to spend more time with my family and less time training for a little while.
My personal household economy (we bought a house last year) has had FAR more negative impact on my racing and equipment addiction than anything the overall economy could dish out.
Well, we aren’t seeing this currently in the Bay Area. Our club continues to add first timers, most who have joined in the past month.
That’s good news! As I said it was just a hunch 
Could you be a little more detailed, the reference to the “current” situation is quite vague.
THAT was funny man!!!..HAHAHAHAHAHHAAH OUT LOUD
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If I am Canadian (not), I am excited about the situation, and I will likely get more “boom for the buck.”
This statement, with all due respect could not be further from the truth. In Canada we may not be suffering from the sub prime crisis or huge deficits due to war expenditures, but the weakening American dollar is what certainly push us into an economic slow down as well. Our manufacturing sector is already feeling the crunch of this. When we were trading at about .67 cents to the green back, Americans were lined up to do business with us. Now that are dollar is about par, this is not the case.
I have seen it implied in this thread that triathletes come from a demographic that has more disposable income then many sports and therefore an economic slowdown will have marginal impact on the sport. Retailers that cater to demographics with more disposable income in other industries would indicate the rational does not hold water. Starbuck’s for example is in a lot of trouble. This is just one of many retailers that cater to our discretionary income that is in trouble.
My point was more in line with retailers in the US seeing greater international interest/purchasing given the devaluation of the US dollar. Certainly, the US import cycle is affected by this devaluation, as you say. But, the export should be strengthened (based on my sophomoric econ education). Really, though, I was/am curious if people see less interest in entering myriad races, expensive races, or travelling to races from afar. And, if people are downsizing their bling factor.
As for the qualification: The current situation is: devaluation of the USD, fluxuating markets, high gas prices, rising cost of living, possible recession, lending failures, job loss, etc. We just had a trucker strike in Jersey, and this will happen more and impact everything (a high %age of goods travel on pavement).