Setting Expectations for IM Cozumel - What's reasonable?

Triathlon Forum
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Cozumel is 7 weeks out, and I’m going into my final build. Details like fueling, bike/gear set up are getting nailed down and I’m starting to get an idea of where I am physically. Still, I’m having a hard time calibrating my expectations for my race splits, so I thought ST could provide some feedback. I do have a coach who I had this conversation with about a month ago, but I’m looking for a sanity check since I’m feeling pretty far behind where I wanted to be.

Background: Only finished 1 Ironman before, Couer d’Alene in 2009. I did only 3 months of training for CdA coming from absolute zero bike or swim training, but still managed an 11:26. I came back from Afghanistan in March, and raced in June. Since then I’ve done half a dozen 70.3s, my last being Timberman in August 2012. Timberman was 5 months after my son was born, so my training was very poor (6-7hrs/week), but I finished in 4:41 (:34/2:30/1:30).

For the first time in my life, I’ve actually done consistent training this year for Cozumel. I started back in May and have been building steadily. Outside of a foot injury, my training in all three sports has been consistent for 5 months. Until recently I had been fitting in 8-12hrs/week and have been building up toward 12-15 recently.

Swimming: By far my weakest sport. To help fix this, I joined a master’s program earlier this summer and have been swimming with them 2-3x per week for a total of 8-9k yards per week. Still not high volume, but it’s helped a ton. I can hold 1:25-1:30/100yds consistently throughout workouts, with faster sets about 5 seconds under that. I did a 1000yd test 2 months ago in 15:30. I did a 75min swim at CdA in '09 off of 3 months of swimming and a 34 min swim at Timberman '12 off of 3 months of 2-3k/week. I think for Cozumel, with Masters training, I should be able to do about 65 minutes if conditions are good.

Cycling: I use 280W for my critical power, but that’s from about 6 months ago. I’ve done a lot of good training since then, so it’s probably 5-10W higher. My position is solid and my bike has a fairly clean setup. I ride a Guru CR901, so not the most aero frame, but slick enough with TriRig Omega brakes, Jet9 wheels, Vittoria Open Corsa tires, latex tubes, aero helmet, and good position. I rode a 2:30 at Timberman 15 months ago, but again, that was on much less training and a much lower FTP on a hilly course. My target power right now is going to be about 210W. I have struggled on my recent long bikes, but I think I’ve found that it was due to the wrong saddle height on the brand new bike. I’m doing only 3 bikes a week right now; 1hr on Tuesday, 1.5hr on Thursday and 3-6 on Sunday. All sessions are focused and on target. Best case, I think I could be 5:05-5:10, but if the next 4 weeks don’t go right, that could easily go up 10 minutes. Let’s call it 5:15 for the bike.

Running: This is the sport I have the most background in and am most comfortable with. I don’t run crazy volume, but I’m consistent and frequent with my runs. 5-6 runs per week; one long, one transition run, one tempo run and the rest easy. The long runs are usually faster than easy pace at around 7min/mile. Easy pace is 7:30/mi and marathon pace is ~6:40/mi, all based on the Daniels running paces. Longest run to this point is 16 miles and I felt really good and strong. Based on my 1:30 at Timberman last year, I feel confident that I can run well off the bike if I keep on top of my fueling and pace the bike consistently. I’m expecting to be anywhere from 3:15-3:30 at Cozumel. I’d like to think I can be in the bottom range of that, but it’s really tough to know.

**Total time: **9:30-9:55 (assumes 5 minutes for transitions based on last years results)

That time seems ambitious, but I when I look at each leg individually, I think my estimates are realistic. Lack of experience at this distance is the biggest factor that may bite me in the ass, but I’m working hard to the details to focus on proper execution.

For the experienced IM folks out there, does this sound realistic? If you’ve done Cozumel before, I’ve heard the race is slower than it looks, so am I too ambitious on the swim & bike?

Input, feedback and criticism welcome…

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Andrew-
I did Coz in '11. I went in with decent training, but a run injury, so I had adjusted my expectations accordingly. Unfortunately, I got sick the night before the race, and my ability to perform deteriorated as the day progressed. Then we had a cloudburst on the run, my nagging calf injury blew up at mile 9, so I limped the rest of the race. So, taking everything I say with the above grains of salt, here’s what I think:

Swim-currents will vary year to year. Seed yourself to get a good draft, and expect some bumping. Water is clear, good temp-in 2001 some guy got bit by a barracuda! and he was on the outside and towards the rear. I went 58 high, had good drafts, and effort was in the high moderate range. Currents were a bit against us that year.

Bike-3 loops-expect major drafting packs. The South Americans in the race didn’t seem to hesitiate at all to draft, seemed to plan on it and aggressively work together, and didn’t see many in the penalty box. On the course, when you make the left hand turn and are on the side open to the ocean and the wind, it’s tough! The wind on that side will cause you to actually lean into it to stay upright at times.And hot- you need to be steady on it, monitor energy output, and stay hydrated-so so important. Make sure you get fully loaded with sunscreen. I thought aid stations were less frequent than needed. By the by, the gave out these cool Coz-labeled bottles-fun to load up on them before you get to run transition…

Run Transition- kind of a mess, not as organized as it should’ve been. Porta potties were in the transition tent, and it was hot, so it smelled awful. I might’ve noticed it more, because by then I was feeling pretty sick, but it stunk! Run is (was) 3 loops, out and back. Nice support in town, lonely out of town. Aid stations ran out of stuff later on, and the rain caused flooding in the streets, to the point where it was knee deep in a couple sections, and no way to go around 'em. Some of the streets are cobbled, so I think having shoes that are relatively new, so the cushioning is fresh, is a good idea. Also, bring bandaids and extra socks either with you or in special needs in case it rains and you need to switch socks to prevent blisters.

Overall, by far my slowest IM due to injury and illness. But a beautiful island, and I would go back again. I would definitely make sure to watch my food/drink intake prior to the race a lot closer, and I would try and get more time in the wind and uphill training as better prep. And I might even say f#$* it and hook onto the back of a pack now and again-which I am adamantly against, but don’t know that you can really avoid it without costing yourself real time relative to your AG peers. In my race, it wasn’t an issue, 'cause I knew I couldn’t push the pace, so I cruised. But it still annoyed the heck outta me.

Best of luck!

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My only thought is your training hours seem low. That might affect you on the day, strength wise, to hold power output and hold race pace on the run.

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My only thought is your training hours seem low. That might affect you on the day, strength wise, to hold power output and hold race pace on the run.

I’ve always been one to believe in focused and efficient training over volume for the sake of volume. I’m extremely limited on available time, so fitting in what I do is actually significant. I’ve averaged 8-12hrs per week this year and am in the 12-15hr range for this build. For an AGer with a job and family, I think that’s pretty damn good!

TSS for the most of this year was 600-800. Past month has been 800-900 and it should bump up a good amount for the next 4-5 weeks. Not crazy volume, but sufficient. I do think I need to up the bike volume, but there’s a plan for that.

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Thanks for the great info! It sounds like conditions can be a bit unpredictable, so any expectations have to be matched to however it ends up being on that day.

I’ve heard about the bike packs before and unfortunately it’s the reality of most WTC races I’ve done. Anytime you squeeze that many athletes onto a loop course it’s inevitable. I’m going to be racing my own race, but if I get a chance to sit back the legal distance, I might have to. Passing a pack can burn you out pretty quickly. I live in Houston, so flat, heat and humidity aren’t big concerns. To beat the wind it’s going to come down to discipline, so I’ve got no one to blame but myself if I push too hard or don’t keep myself as small as possible.

Sorry to hear it wasn’t a great race for you time wise, but it still sounds like you had fun. We’re staying the week afterward to just relax and enjoy!

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So it’s fun to think about what you might be able to produce on race day, but I personally try not to get hung up on it too much. There are so many things that can affect time, it’s honestly a waste of mental energy to focus on (outside of setting training intensities based on proven results).

My suggestion is to really tune into your body over the next 4-5 weeks and how it responds to the different stresses. Then race to your fitness, not your hopes or expectations.

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I did it last year and am going back this year. You’ve got some great advice from Lanceman already and I can’t really comment on your pacing plan except to say yes, it’s slower than people expect. If you look at Russ Cox’s analysis of Kona times versus qualifying times you can see that people who KQ’d at Cozumel last year were, on average, very close their qualifying times at Kona - contrast that with the known fast courses like Florida, Arizona, Austria etc. where people went much slower than their qualifying times at Kona. Last year was probably slower than usual though: a few things to note:

edit forgot the link to Russ’s analysis

  1. Last year the swim current was a big problem on the last leg of the swim, slowed everyone down a lot. If that’s the case again then either find a good draft or if you can’t try to get in close to shore. Don’t be dismayed if your swim is several minutes slower than you expected. I was looking for a 1:15 and came out with a 1:26. I think this isn’t the usual situation though.

  2. Aid stations every 10k on the bike, bottles of water which were really cold last year (I got several with ice in) plus Powerade in the normal Powerade bottles (won’t fit well in a bottle cage). Gels, other stuff too.

  3. Last year the wind was a headwind on the E side of the island rather than a crosswind, so there was 20km of slogging into a block headwind on each lap - hopefully we won’t get that again but be prepared psychologically for it. I only saw one really bad large drafting pack but there were quite a few individual drafters (my personal leech was called Jorge) and were I was a number of the lead AG women were drafting shamelessly.

  4. Support on the run was great the whole way last year, plus there were lots and lots of aid stations with drinks, gels, bars, peanuts, pretzels etc. etc. It was hot on the run but not desperate.

I went in good shape last year and was aiming for a 10:30, I ended up with 10:58 and was completely satisfied with that.

Hope this is useful

Rob

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I can’t say that I have any input, but was wondering if you were the rider on a Guru who passed the wife and I near watertown last sunday. . . If so we are going to IM Cozumel as well, though for us it is the break before OEF instead of the goal for afterwards.

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So it’s fun to think about what you might be able to produce on race day, but I personally try not to get hung up on it too much. There are so many things that can affect time, it’s honestly a waste of mental energy to focus on (outside of setting training intensities based on proven results).

My suggestion is to really tune into your body over the next 4-5 weeks and how it responds to the different stresses. Then race to your fitness, not your hopes or expectations.

I know that you’re right, but it’s sometimes difficult to block that out. I’m going to race to my fitness, not to predetermined times, but I’d still like to have an idea what to expect.

I’ll have a much better idea of where my fitness is at the end of this block of training. One thing I didn’t mention before is that I have a half iron race the first weekend of November, so while I’ll be racing that fatigued, it’ll still be a good opportunity to benchmark and test things out.

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Thanks for the great info! It sounds like conditions can be a bit unpredictable, so any expectations have to be matched to however it ends up being on that day.

I’ve heard about the bike packs before and unfortunately it’s the reality of most WTC races I’ve done. Anytime you squeeze that many athletes onto a loop course it’s inevitable. I’m going to be racing my own race, but if I get a chance to sit back the legal distance, I might have to. Passing a pack can burn you out pretty quickly. I live in Houston, so flat, heat and humidity aren’t big concerns. To beat the wind it’s going to come down to discipline, so I’ve got no one to blame but myself if I push too hard or don’t keep myself as small as possible.

Sorry to hear it wasn’t a great race for you time wise, but it still sounds like you had fun. We’re staying the week afterward to just relax and enjoy!

our currents are also known to change on a whim - you can start a swim wtih the current and an hour later be against it in the same spot.

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  1. Last year the wind was a headwind on the E side of the island rather than a crosswind, so there was 20km of slogging into a block headwind on each lap - hopefully we won’t get that again but be prepared psychologically for it. I only saw one really bad large drafting pack but there were quite a few individual drafters (my personal leech was called Jorge) and were I was a number of the lead AG women were drafting shamelessly.
    Rob

and for the HIM in September we had a tailwind on the east side. If there is anything you can count on, it is the inconsistency. Make no expectations for wind or current.

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You need to be able to ride your race pace on a trainer for 5 hours. There is zero place to rest/coast so in my opinion it’s more difficult than a hilly bike course such as CdA.

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I can’t say that I have any input, but was wondering if you were the rider on a Guru who passed the wife and I near watertown last sunday. . . If so we are going to IM Cozumel as well, though for us it is the break before OEF instead of the goal for afterwards.

Unlikely to be be me for two reasons: firstly I ride a Specialized, and secondly I am from London so on the wrong side of the pond. Haven’t quite made it over the Atlantic on my long rides yet :slight_smile:

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I second this statement. Plus, the bike is 114 miles, so add 5 minutes.

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You need to be able to ride your race pace on a trainer for 5 hours. There is zero place to rest/coast so in my opinion it’s more difficult than a hilly bike course such as CdA.

Rob is spot on here. I’ve done the race last 3 years, and will be there again for #4 in 5 days. I will also add in this: a few false flats on the bike, some not-so-bad chip seal in spots on the bike, humidity on the run, and no sponges on the run (plastic water packets you bite open instead). Don’t get me wrong, I love this race, and will continue to make it my end-of-season race.

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You need to be able to ride your race pace on a trainer for 5 hours. There is zero place to rest/coast so in my opinion it’s more difficult than a hilly bike course such as CdA.

This is such bullshit IMHO. I’m doing CZ next weekend and have been training on flat land because of it. Maybe I’m pussy footing it on the flats (though my average HR is the same as when I’m climbing) but the weekends I decided to climb instead of going flat, they hurt. All my flat rides have been cake walks.

Interested to hear how the OP is doing. I’m sure we’re all in the same boat with taper madness. I’m only 5 days off my longest brick (112+10) and I already feel like I’m losing fitness for some reason. Probably just my body needing to move.

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This is such bullshit IMHO.
All my flat rides have been cake walks.

I sure hope Cozumel is a cake walk for you. I’m thinking you might discover that it’s one of these…
You should give us your name so that we can cheer for you virtually, online!

*Spicy Hot Lava Cakes *

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I think I’ve gained 5lbs during this taper. (Which started 5 days ago)

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This is such bullshit IMHO.
All my flat rides have been cake walks.

I sure hope Cozumel is a cake walk for you. I’m thinking you might discover that it’s one of these…
You should give us your name so that we can cheer for you virtually, online!

*Spicy Hot Lava Cakes *

Oh, I definitely don’t think CZ will be a cake walk. I’m just calling flat rides compared to 6-9k climbing hill rides a cake walk.

I live in SoCal and have taken advantage of the Santa Ana winds when they are blowing… I’ll tell you what, that shit fucking sucks. Your legs may feel fine but you’re physically exhausted for some reason. I know anyone who has done Kona when its windy is sitting back and saying, “yeah, no shit” but it is really weird for me bc this is the first time I’ve trained on flat/windy stuff. Typically my legs are fried at the end of a ride but my energy is fine; now its polar opposite.

Feel free to follow me. Jeremiah Radel. The goal is simply sub-10. I think on an amazing, everything goes right day I could go 9:30 and on a bad, something in my body just didn’t cooperate day, I’ll go 10:30. OR I get three fucking flats like IMWI and phone in the marathon to a 12:30. Either way, I almost certainly will not be getting my KQ this go around and it’s more of a vacation than a “my time dictates my attitude” kind of a trip.

EDIT: My real goal is to finish before its dark. Still sub-10 but if I go 10:05 and its light out, I’ll be smiling.

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I second this statement. Plus, the bike is 114 miles, so add 5 minutes.

Concur. I did it last year and had it at 113.5 miles.