My friend last night was convinced yesterday was a rope-a-dope. My response was that giving the best climber in the world a minute and a half with 3 mountain stages to go isn’t much of a ploy. What do you guys think? My best strategy (and I’m a newbie to pro cycling strategy) would be to stay with Alberto for the next two days, try to take some seconds back in the TT, and go for broke on Mt. Vontoux. That way, at least he can make the Champs Elysees a race, or hope Johan tells Contador to back off and give Lance the Yellow.
I just don’t think Lance can stay with him though.
My friend last night was convinced yesterday was a rope-a-dope. My response was that giving the best climber in the world a minute and a half with 3 mountain stages to go isn’t much of a ploy. What do you guys think? My best strategy (and I’m a newbie to pro cycling strategy) would be to stay with Alberto for the next two days, try to take some seconds back in the TT, and go for broke on Mt. Vontoux. That way, at least he can make the Champs Elysees a race, or hope Johan tells Contador to back off and give Lance the Yellow.
I just don’t think Lance can stay with him though.
If he could have stayed with Contador, he would’ve jumped onto Schleck’s wheel when AS moved to try to bridge up to AC to “cover”. But, he couldn’t…
That said, yes, LA still has a chance…along with a couple of other riders as well. Lots of things can still happen in the next week and it only takes a moment for things to change…just ask Levi.
edit: Oh yeah…your friend needs to put away his tin-foil hat…
Your friend is an idiot, but I say that in the nicest possible way. What in Lance’s (or any Tour contender’s) history gives anyone the idea that losing time on a key mountain stage is a bluff? If he could have gained time, he would have.
I think your last sentence is spot on. (Unfortuntately).
Me too. I would love to see it, but I don’t think it can happen. My buddy said he was “sitting in” after Alberto went, but I thought that didn’t make much sense, why let Andy take off as well? It would have been much more useful as Contadors’ teammate for him to cover Schleck and shave a couple seconds off his pursuit if he could, at the same time preserving his own GC overall standing. He just looked like he’s lost his kick.
what race was it this year that Contador was stubborn and forgot to eat on the bike and blew up like a little bitch?
Anything can happen. I’d also like to see (but can’t find) how far back Lance has come back from on the previous tours he’s won? Given he is older now,and his main competition is on his own team, but how far back has he been before to come back and win the tour??
farthest back was about a half hour, against a rider who had really no chance in the overall. excluding that one time, he’s never had a “come from behind” victory.
Lance will honor his statements and support the team. BUT you can also bet your ass he’ll also do his damdest to stay in position to pick up the pieces if Contador cracks. It’s unlikely, but it could happen.
That way if Contador wins, Lance looks like a stand up teammate. If Contador blows up, Lance wins the race. Win-win from a PR perspective.
If Astana hopes to win the tour it is probably going to have to come from Lance or Contador. If Contador crashes or bonks or gets stung by a bee or any of a thousand other things then Lance has a chance. If Contador stays healthy and races smart, Lance (and everyone else) doesn’t stand a chance.
As long as he is in the race he has a chance, but I think he will be lucky to get on the podium. Depends how well he, Wiggins, A Schleck, and a few others do in the TT and few mountiain stages of course, but I think there are too many guys (Kloden included) that can climb better. And Kloden can TT better too. It will be interesting to see if Wiggins can make it without have a bad day. Lance did not fake anything. He is human afterall.
At this point I think he will be a close 4th or 5th.
Several things would have to break his way for Armstrong to win.
Contador would have to crash, become seriously ill, be struck by lightning, etc…
Armstrong would need to hold off Andy Schleck, Wiggins, Nibali, and possibly Sastre (and even Kloden) who all looked stronger than Armstrong on Sunday.
I’m not sure his heart will be in it to fight simply for a podium spot. Barring disaster striking down Contador in the next couple of days, I don’t see Armstrong finishing better than fourth.
there is a chance he could still be gaining fitness where others are losing it.
I seriously doubt that Armstrong is gaining fitness at this point. Most improvements in fitness takes much longer and after 2.5 weeks he’s going to be in a big deep hole of fatigue…not gaining strength
Not that it will happen to Armstrong, but Lemond and Ulrich were famous for coming into the tour 5-10 pounds heavy and riding themselves into pretty spectacular shape by the Alps. This ain’t triathlon, and these are elite athletes. Their bodies don’t play by the same rules as they do for us mortals.
rephrase it to “getting weaker slower than others”
or gaining relative fitness =)
I seriously doubt that Armstrong is gaining fitness at this point. Most improvements in fitness takes much longer and after 2.5 weeks he’s going to be in a big deep hole of fatigue…not gaining strength