Okay, this is really two topics in one. One the one hand, I’m curious how you go about calculating your race projections/expectations. On the other hand, I’m starting to wonder if I am one of the very few mortals who frequents this site.
For race projections, I look at my performance in past races and training sessions, then make adjustments for distance and so forth, and come up with three sets of numbers: 1. The best possible race, 2. Just about what I expected, and 3. A whole lot went wrong today. Typically, I have gone right about at or slightly faster than my #2 projection. I find that my projections get more accurate as I do races a second or third time, and become more attuned to my fitness.
How do you come up with race projections, if at all?
As for the mere mortal thing, I know that there are a lot of very impressive athletes on this forum(not sarcasm, for once) but I keep seeing people post things like, “I am doing my first IM and expect to go X.” I then look at results for that race and see that it would give them a top 50 finish, and I wonder if they can really do that. I remain reticent to talk about my expectations because I am doing my first IM this year, and I know that a lot can go wrong, so I am putting that into my projections. I know what I can do for a 1/2. I know what I can do for stand-alone workouts. But I don’t know what I can do when it all goes together. I guess one thing about me is that I am very in tune with both my strengths and my weaknesses, and while I set challenging goals for myself, they are realistic ones.
So help me out, here. Are most of the people on this forum really racing at such a high level? Or is there a certain amount of (how to say it nicely?) exaggeration of one’s perceived abilities involved when people start setting up their gearing and making race projections?
My last sprint duathlon was 1:27:38, I came in a couple of minutes ahead of my projection of 1:30. And I forgot to count my transition time into it. I picked up a lot on the bike that I didn’t expect. I know what you mean about times on this forum. I was happy to finish a 1/2 under six hours last year and some of these guys are under 5 hours easy.
Are most of the people on this forum really racing at such a high level?
Don’t know about most, but I’m definitely mortal. I’ve only done sprints so far, PR is about 1:28. I’m hoping to take come time off that this summer, but we’ll see.
I have never passed anyone who hasn’t crashed or had a mechanical problem on the bike or run in my 6 races (longest is an oly). Does that make me mortal? I am ahead out of the water and then watch people go by for the remainder of the day. VEry depressing.
"How do you come up with race projections, if at all? "
Never really bother. My only goal is to be faster than the year before. First I look at my bike time. If it’s AG decent then I’m happy. Then I look at my over all time. If it’s AG decent then I’m even happier. Then I look at my AG placing. If I podiumed then I’m a really happy camper, but if not that’s no big deal. I’ll still hang around for the medals/awards presentation before going for a beer.
I estimate each segment based on a range of bad to expected to good and usually project the expected time. Then I pad the crap out of transitions and add some “cushion” time…
I usually look at my most recent race and try to predict using that, with adjustments for course differences and endurance fitness (or lack thereof
The formula I use for scaling to different distances is pretty complex. Given a known performance at race distance Ds1/Db1/Dr1 and times of Ts1/Tb1/Tr1, an estimate for race distance Ds2/Db2/Dr2 is
Ts1*(Ds2/Ds1)^1.06 + Tb1*(Db2/Db1)^1.08 + Tr1*(Dr2/Dr1)^1.12 + transition time
Well, I only race sprints… but i’m doing my first oly in 2 weeks… this is my projection… its a flippin pool swim… so 20.30 for that… i dunno where the bike transition is… so 30 sec T1… hilly draft legal 40 k… 1.05-1.15 (dunno how hilly its gonna be)… dunno about T2… (15 sec probably), then 10 k rolling hill run… well, i’ll be honest in saying I havn’t raced a 10 k in oh… 2 years… that took 38 min… so i figure i’m in better shape now… so 36-38 min of the bike…
total… 2:05 - 2:10 (but who knows… i could crash (metaphorically speaking and knocking on wood) and burn spectaculary)
but no way could i project a 1/2 IM or IM… even the oly is getting pretty sketchy for me… i tend to race based on speed… i’m working on increasing the endurance while keeping the speed.
I do it sorta like you, but without calculating possibility #3. If I’m going to a new race, or a new distance, find what your nearest competitors in races you’ve done together do at the unknown race. This isn’t real accurate, because some of those nuts can go almost as fast in a long course as they do in the shorter courses, which I don’t seem to be able to do, but, it can give you a guestimation point of reference.
Another way to do it is to find someone that swims your basic same time, another that bikes your same bike time, and another that runs your same time. Look at these individual’s times in the race in question and add them together to get your estimated time.
In the end, it doesn’t really matter, you’re going to do whatever you can do that day. I will have to admit, it is a real pick-me-up to come out of the water significantly faster than I projected, and that positive attitude may spill over into the rest of the race. But, when I don’t finish faster than I projected, I don’t think it negatively affects my attitude. I tend to be optomistic.
Which reminds me of something I like, a Realist is an optomist with experience.
Oh, yeah, the exaggeration stuff. I don’t know. I think lots of these people are simply studs. If they’ve done a few 1/2’s in 5 hours, they project they can do an Irondistance in about 11. And then, they go out and do it, or even a little faster. I think a lot of it has to do with better information…like that that can be found right here. A general race time doesn’t have to be such an unknown, provided there is some history to assist the calculation, some good training logs, good nutrition practiced in training, etc.
I tend to under-guess my times, and usually do a little better than I thought I would. But, I have a training buddy of mine that’s always telling me I should go X time in a race. I know that I WILL go X time in that race…the only problem is, I’ve still got 10% of the run left to go before I finish! So, I’m always underachieving in his eyes, usually overachieving in mine.
I just think there are some really fast people here…not a lot of pretenders. If someone isn’t fast, so what? Almost no body here is a pro. We’re all just in it for personal reasons…from staying out of bars, to recovering from abuse (either applied ourselves or by someone else) to searching for limits to just feeling darn good about exercising. OK, there may be a few nuts here, too. Just like in regular society, but with a slightly lower % body fat.
I usually make no prediction what so ever. I like to be surpised. That and in the past few months I have been beaten by my girlfriend, her father and, most recently, a 68 yr. old man. I don’t call that humiliating so much as motivating.
Mortal for sure. I used the same three guesstimates as you for my first IM Wisconsin last year. Not much experience with swimming or biking, so based projections on training pace. Perfect day was 12 hours, okay day was 13 hours, bad day was just finishing in under 17 hours, with corresponding times in each portion.
I had comfortable, but faster than guesstimated swim and bike legs. However the temperature and humidity got way intense for this Alaska boy and after running 17 miles on pace I was exhausted and struggles to walk to a 14:22 finish. Looking forward to doing another some day. Good luck.
For new distances (or longer ones), I just give a wider range. My first marathon, I told my family to expect me at the finish line between 4:00 and 4:30 and I came in at 4:14. My first Ironman, I said between 13:00 and 15:00 hours (now that’s a reeeally wide range), and was at 14:07.
I always pre state my race times to my close training buddies. I know how hard and at what level I have trained and I give 3 numbers, 1. optimum 2. expected and 3. worst case. The expected is always the number I give out. It is like a marathon. If you have done the long runs and the Yasso’s, you would know pretty close (+/- 3 minutes) how fast you could run a marathon.
Translate that to triathlon training. If you do not have a good grasp of your swim pace, bike pace, and run pace for a given distance, how are you training? Race specific training yields the results to give you the confidence to know that you can hold a certain pace. The rest is mental toughness to hold that pace even when it hurts.
Here’s mortal. Last year I did a 1/2 iron (KKT). Couldn’t break 6 hours. Averaged about 11:30s on the melting in the heat run. A week later I did a sprint. Averaged 6:15s on the 3.6 mile run. It was cool. So when I guess my race times it’s a WAG (Wild A** Guess).
I’m not really different than most in making predictions. How did I do last year? Am I fitter or not? Make a guess. I will, however, change my goal mid-race. If the swim is short, I’ll subtract the difference of my predicted time and actual time from my overall goal. I’ll do the same at known intervals on the bike and run. At IM Cd’A last year, I was way behind my goal pace so I picked a new goal (atually did this a few times) of XX. With 10k to go, I recalc’ed what I had to run to come in under XX. My point is that I remain flexible due to unforeseen circumstances like poorly measured distances, extreme heat/cold, mech’s on the bike, etc. I set mini goals within the overall race to keep myself thinking about things other than my current pain level.
As far as mere mortals on this forum, I would guess it’s no different than a normal cross section at a race. 5% can go under 4:30 for a half, 10% under 5:00, 25% 5-5:30, 30% 5:30-6, etc. Rough numbers, but a fairly normal distribution is my guess. The level of knowledge is equivalent to a whole lot of low 4 hour guys, however.
I’m most definitely mortal, not having done a race yet. However, I’ve just entered my first 10K, and am aiming to do an Oly in November. I’m going to aim for a 2:35:00. Did I just pull that out of my ass? Nope. Here’s the convoluted logic:
I’m an ex-swimmer, so 1:20 pace is quite easy: 20min swim
I can cycle 30km in about an hour now, so allow 33kmh by November, for a 1:12 bike split.
Finally, I can run 6km in half an hour on a treadmill. I’m starting to build up my run outdoors at the moment, and have entered my first 10K, on Sept. 12, at which I aim to do 55:00, so say 1:00:00 off the bike, and 3:00 for transitions to give me a 2:35.
You read it here first, so return to this post at the end of the year and see how accurate I was
… 3 numbers, 1. optimum 2. expected and 3. worst case. The expected is always the number I give out …
Yeah, I usually do something similar for friends and family who are racing or spectating. But I didn’t follow that at my first 1/2IM. It was the morning of the race and I was busy getting my transition set up. My brother (whom at the time I had never beaten in a triathlon) was also supposed to be racing but he got sick and had to DNS. But he came to watch. I was happy that he was there but he was really starting to annoy me with a little negativity and a lot of comments and questions while I was trying to focus and get ready. So when he asked me what time I thought I’d finish in, I told him #1 just to shut him up! His response was, “No way!”. Well, I ended up finishing in exactly that time (good thing the course was just a bit short
This will sound weird, but I think times for newbies are not the way to go. The last thing you want as your goal time slips away is that voice in your head chipping away at you. Far too much pressure.
Better, I feel, with a new event, to just race as well as you. Whether you are fast or slow compared to others is actually neither here nor there - how can you control the kind of day others are having? Do your race, enjoy it, give it hell, and only look at the clock at the end.
