Romney over Perry by a healthy margin as “the only adult in the room.”
Obama over Romney by 3 states. Obama’s biggest weakness in the last election was his inexperience. That’s no longer a factor. His other weaknesses will be the bad economy and the growing government. Romney is not in a good position to fight those given his Romney-care in Massachusetts, the Republicans history on deficit spending and bailouts, and his “the guy who laid you off” looks and persona. This won’t be Reagan-Carter, but instead Reagan-Mondale. Obama has incumbency and debate skills on his side.
Scenario two:
Perry over Romney is Bachman drops out and the religious right and deep south can carry him to the win.
Obama over Perry by at least 10 states. Perry is just too much of a Texas Religio-crat to pick up a swing state. He’ll capture the reds.
Remember, elections aren’t won because chainpin really really really hates someone. They are won because most people would prefer one person (51/49) over the other.
I’n not sure why it’s debated so much on here. No matter, as you say, how much people don’t like Obama, if he can show even the most modest improvement in the economy, he’ll win. The GOP just doesn’t have the knight in shining armour this time around.
The Republicans will lose because they can’t field a credible candidate, not because Obama is considered a good president, modest economic improvement or not. However, more jobs numbers like Friday closer to the election may change the game.
BTW Barry, the Republican spending dog doesn’t hunt as Obama’s profligate spending makes the Republican numbers seem modest.
However, more jobs numbers like Friday closer to the election may change the game.
Not sure if Friday’s job numbers were good news – The economy added 80,000 jobs in October while it needs to add 130,000 to keep up with population growth. Also another 2.6 million people were “marginally attached” to the workforce in October meaning that they wanted work but have given up actively searching for work.
I think the economy will improve in 2012 and Obama will beat Romney fairly comfortably.
Romney is really the only viable hope for the GOP but it’s going to be hard to beat Obama if the economy improves and I believe it will, at least enough to seal his victory.
Assuming Romney, Cain, or Perry take the nomination, Obama has another 4 years. No way they stand a chance. In fact, off-shore betting has Cain tied with Hillary Clinton, and she is not even running for president.
As much as it pains me to say it - I agree with YaHey. The GOP just didn’t field a quality candidate, and let the circus show shape the early stages of the election. Bachmann, Santorum, et al. never had a chance (and rightly so), but they remained on the stage too long. GOP should have worked on getting Christie on board early, and all the support should have gone to him - as he is the only one that would have stood a chance against Obama. I think Christie pulled out this time around because he didn’t want to damage himself for 2016.
Obama won’t lose, as much as it kills me to say it. But then again it doesn’t matter who is in office. We’re fucked no matter what. Its the system thats broken, not those that are in it.
I like your scenario. Obama over anyone. I am waiting for the day when the GOP addresses the elephant in the room, the GW years and his destruction of the economy. Plenty of blame for Obama too but the GOP’s hands are just as dirty. And if Mitt wins the nomination the GOP hardliners will run away and support the Tea Party in regional elections.
You think Cain will actually win the Nomination? This is the only other scenario I can see the GOP having even half a chance, but I don’t see Cain getting the nod, or possibly even staying in it.