Just read a report on CNN that major economists (including the most pessimistec) predict a worsening economy for the remainder of 2009, then a full swing recovery in 2010. This includes housing and auto markets to return to the levels seen in 2008.
Maybe I’m just not economically savvy, by how can they determine that all of a sudden people like me are going to start spending money again?
Option 1: it will happen just as ‘predicted’ and in 2011, they will explain to you why it happened that way.
Option 2: it will happen not as ‘predicted’ at all, and in 2011, they will explain to you why it didn’t happen that way.
Does that answer your question? 
in 2008 we had just about every possible scenario occur - so likely 2011 will look like some parts of 2008 -
I predict that the weather in 2011 will look like the weather we had in 2008
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Actually, you exactly answered my question!
I have decided that economists are like meteorologists: often wrong, always able to explain what happened after the fact.
It’s funny to watch the “experts” predict anything, isn’t it? The Big 3, Wall St., housing mkt. and the banks bottom out this year, that makes sense. Once we have hit rock bottom there is only one way to go. So predicting a recovery starting in 2010 isn’t much of a gamble. Predicting a full swing recovery is ridiculous. Institutions are gone. Equity has diminished. It’s going to be a very slow climb up the slope.
Predicting a full swing recovery is ridiculous. Institutions are gone. Equity has diminished. It’s going to be a very slow climb up the slope.
An 8 year orgie of fraud and ponzie schemes will certainly take more than 1-2 years to recover from.
The only “experts” I’d listen to are the few who predicted this in the first place.
Considering we’ve been in a recession since fall 2007 tells me a few things.
Don’t trust the people who didn’t know we were in a recession until just recently.
Most recessions last about 15 monts, so we are about due to start slowing coming back.
Most recessions last about 15 monts, so we are about due to start slowing coming back.
Look at what caused the '30s depression, and see how similar it is to our current situation. That one lasted a lot longer than 15 months.
Yep. It could be that bad. But that was before the days of government intervention. I’m guessing this one will last longer than the norm, but not that much longer. But my 2 cents on that forecast is worth far less than you paid.
Regardless of how hard someone tries to find economists to survey, there will always be a much larger number of experts (and of course lots of nonexperts) making stock market investments. Based on recent trends in the market and the generally low level it’s at, I think the consensus of stock pickers is that we are a long way from any major recovery.
Yep. It could be that bad. But that was before the days of government intervention. I’m guessing this one will last longer than the norm, but not that much longer. But my 2 cents on that forecast is worth far less than you paid.
I’m no expert either, but I’ve been through a couple of major recessions, and I haven’t seen anything remotely similar to this crisis. The level of fraud and phony “wealth” combined with huge debt increases that have merely kept our economy afloat for the last 8 years is amazing. In reality we’ve been in a recession since the dotcom bust. On top of that we have lost our tech edge… and in this day, technological innovation is the only thing that can pull us out of this. Outside of natural resources, that is the only way to create wealth.
Government intervention can’t “fix” this problem… just like in '30 we had to prevent it from happening in the first place.