I’m trying to come up with some gauge on what %effort of 10K intensity that one can successfully run an Ironman at. I’d be interested in seeing your recent 10K times, and Ironman run split in the same season. Also, if you can indicate what your Ironman goal time was, so we can gauge the level of over/underachievement.
What I hope to do is put this into spreadsheet and gather some stats on what % of 10K effort people ran at when they either overachieved, underachieved or hit Ironman desired goal splits.
Here are mine from this summer:
10K (37 min estimate based on recent Olympic tri), Ironman run actual 3:42 = 70.03% of 10K effort…desired goal 3:30
Just a small amplification here. Fleck pointed out that your ironman run speed needs to become your “day in day out” every run pace. He’d go to the track after hard 4 hour rides and run 7 minute miles till the metronome in his head got tuned in.
My gut feel watching most age groupers running is that they actually train much faster than any feasible Ironman pace at too low run volumes and on race day, they never actually run at this run pace (likley because of insufficient run prep as well as too high intensity on the bike).
The goal would to see what is happening out in the real world by collecting some data.
In cycling the tri community has come up with data that suggests riding Ironman at 70-75% of FT. Let’s see what % of 10K speed most people are actually running at in Ironman.
Last open 10km was in 2004 ~38minutes
Best IM run 3:33 (IM Australia 2005) so the IM Pace is 75.2% of the 10k pace, but you are asking for effort. Based on perceived effort the last 10 miles of a solid IM run are 100-110% the perceived effort of a 10km.
For that race my IM goal was to PB sub 9:40 (actual finish time 9:33) goal run time was sub 3:30
Hi Seth, I guess I said “effort” however, what I mean is % of 10K pace…ie “power to the road”. Yes, the perceived effort will eventually feel just like a 10K (likely in the final 10K), but we’re still moving at only a percentage of the speed that we’d move in a 10K.
I traded some emails offline with Rappstar, and he ended up doing the Ironman run at ~75% of his 10K pace. I’m guessing here, but I don’t think anyone is pulling off anything faster than 80%. Even when Mark Allen was going close to 30 min flat (3 min per K or 180 second per K), his marathon time was 2:42 (or 3:50 per K, or 230 seconds per K)…you get 180/230 = 78%.
I’m thinking that lots of people have unrealistic expectations of what they really CAN run in an Ironman assuming they prep for the bike and run correctly and pace the bike well!
Sure are a lot of variables: fast, fall 10K in the cool weather vs. a hot/hilly IM, etc.
Anyway, my 2 recent “attempts”: IMLP mary 3:44/10K that year 38:39 (goal mary time was 3:35-3:45)
IMKY mary 3:54/10K this spring 37:55 (goal mary time was 3:30-3:39)
Bike pacing is absolutely crucial for sure - I actually faded more at LP then KY (but mostly because of course design as LP rewards an easier early pace much more than KY), but ran stronger because of the much cooler weather. My spring 10K time this year was pretty hot as well.
Do you mean estimated stand alone 10k speed at the time of the IM or *off the bike *10k speed? I’m assuming you mean stand alone for the purposes of this survey.
After all, Olympic tri 10k’s are almost never spot on, sometimes they include parts of transition, etc… Not only that, Oly distance 10k’s aren’t the best indicator of run speed b/c they are always affected by bike and swim pacing.
I didn’t get the chance to race an Oly this summer but my fastest Oly time is 38:xx. This year I’d be lucky to have sub-39:00 Oly run fitness. As you know, my IMC run time was 3:33. That’s pretty much what I was predicting although there was a deep belief I had a sub-3:30 in me.
My gut feel watching most age groupers running is that they actually train much faster than any feasible Ironman pace at too low run volumes and on race day, they never actually run at this run pace (likley because of insufficient run prep as well as too high intensity on the bike).
The question is…would they race any faster by training at a realistic race pace with bigger volumes…I think the majority would still blow their load in the first 4 hours of the ride!
I’ve never run an open 10K, but my best in training was a couple of years ago at 42 minutes. I’m significantly faster now, and I think with a month or so of focus I could hit 40 minutes. At LP I ran 4:03, so I was at 69.5%. My goal in that race was 3:30, which I thought was realistic before the stomach cramps hit. IM Florida is in nine weeks, and I hope to have a fabulous run there.
39mins / 3hrs 33 thats about as good a ratio as you could get. You must have the bike pacing dialed in
I would be interested if anyone that does not have a sub 38min 10km time is even able to run sub 3.30 in an IM. A lot it relates to training volume but with your stand alone predicted marathon time of 3.15 , 3.33 is damm good.
My best 10K was a 41:30. best IM 3:39 @ IMC05 and a 10:47. Best stand alone marathon 3:18. As I have a diesel engine and not a fast two -stroke, I don’t do speedwork. Instead I run singletrack and hills upwards of 3hrs. IMC 07 marathon 3:42 and 10:50. Had hoped to do 10:35-10:40 but not a good bike day. Who the heck were all those speedy guys in the 45-49AG??? Alas I still dream of Kona… Cheers
