Tour 2004 finish:
1.Hamilton
2.Lance
3.Mayo
If Tyler stays healthy and aviods the occassional “off day”, I think he could take it - he has great form this year. Mayo will lose too much time in the flat tt (team and solo) to be top two, but he may make up some time on the Alpe. I would still put my money on Lance though b/c he has the endurance and recovery. Tyler is hungry for a big win and his team is strong - maybe comparable to USPS. Any thoughts?
we had that already in a treat first TT or something like that farther down.
You asked, and Tyler will be crushed and take 4th.
1st - lance
2nd - armstrong
3rd - lance armstrong
that’s how badass he is.
Jan
Lance
mayo
hamilton
heras
Near last but finidhing Super Mario Cippolini
Mayo will continue to be held back by his team
Lance will be held back by splitting his concentration between jan, mayo, and heras… he will also be hampered in the TT becuase he is distracted by the flashing neon sign which adorns cippolinis TT outfit.
Heras will have several great days in the mountains but struggle as a first time team leader and as a mediocre time trialist
Lance just got pimped slapped @ DL. That is not a good sign at all in my opinion. I feel the great champion will go down this year. Jan and Hamilton battle it out with Lance finishing 3rd. The battle in the mountains between Heras, Jan, Lance, Mayo and Hamilton will be awesome.
I honestly have no freakin’ idea at this point. Lets see how Jan looks at the Tour de Suisse.
Heras will have several great days in the mountains but struggle as a first time team leader and as a mediocre time trialist
Heras was a team leader at Kelme before coming to postal service.
For those non-lance/jan fans. sportsbook.com a sponsor of a number of us cycling teams, has the field as 2-1. With the way Mayo and Hamilton have been looking its not a bad bet.
I’ll wait for my post Dauphine predictions until the Dauphine is over.
Lance is doing this race as a “training ride”. He doesn’t want to burn out before the Tour like he did last year. Lance won’t risk falling or getting exhausted. He’s letting the others show what they’ve got and wear themselves out. He will smoke the competition at the Tour like he’s the pimp-boss and they’re all his little b*tches. Such is the truth and ye shall all know his glory when he is crowned king, once again, for the 6th time. Lance will win the tour by 3 minutes.
One rider wears the yellow jersey, but the way the TdF race is ridden these days team tactics play a big role. If it’s close, it may come down to who has the better, fitter team over the course of the three weeks.
None of it matters. Last year Tyler was 80th in DL, broke his collarbone and finished fourth. This year he has a shot at winning DL, at the very least he’ll finish an hour better than last year, does that mean he’ll finish the tour an hour better too? All these guys can physically win, who wants it the most? And when it really, really hurts, who still wants it?
Lance likes it when everybody bets against him, and he has a proven track record of wanting it more than anybody else. That will stop abruptly one day (see Indurain), but how is anybody supposed to know when if the rider doesn’t even know. It has got to be extremely tough to phych yourself up again and again, to pick yourself up after a bad day at the DL or the Tour and convince yourself you can still do it. Lance has always been able to, but logically once it will be to much.
But in the department of “wanting to”, the only one who can match Lance in intensity is Tyler and his team knows it which in turn motivates them.
That said, I’m sticking with my prediction of Bob Roll in yellow in Paris.
2004 Tour
Armstong
Hamilton -.30"
Mayo -.45"
Ullrich -1:30
Simoni -4:00
Dave from VA
I am unconvinced that Armstrong didn’t ride a 100% in the time trial. One needs to ride a 100% to see where one is at for the test to be effective. Riding a 100% in a time trial is not going to overwhelm one’s fitness 3 weeks plus before the start of a tour.
My Favourites for the Tour: Lance, Tyler, Jan (but in which order, I can’t really say)
Top 5: Roberto Heras and Iban Mayo
Note: Roberto Heras’ only really achilles heal this year is the long individual time trial. Roberto can climb as well, if not better, than Mayo (at least he has in the past) and he has the ONCE now Liberty Segurnos team which will keep him in contention in the TTT.
Oh, I am fairly convinced Lance rode 100% on the Mt. Ventoux. But that still doesn’t mean he won’t win. There are just so many factors, for example there is only one man in the European cycling scene who has the experience of dethroning a five-tim Tour champ. And he is of course now the team manager for Ivan Basso. Basso lost a lot of time on the Mt. Ventoux, but nobody knows if they are worried about that or just laughing it off. A lot of things can change in 3 weeks, as I said before Riis dropped out of the Tour de Suisse 3 weeks before dethroning Indurain.
Don’t say I didn’t give you guys advanced notice on this one:
Armstrong
Ullrich
Hamilton (would have been podium last year if not for his crash)
Mayo (just cause I don’t think he can stay strong the whole Tour - he will win some big stages though)
Dream Podim (take that, France) -
Armstrong
Hamilton
Liephiemer (sp?)
I would love to see that dream podium.
Are you a stalker?
Hamilton has reached another level this year and sans “off day” he will get no less than 2nd and at least give Lance some major worries. I watched the tour de romandie - he was spinning up the climbs and covering the moves like champ - no one else was even close. he has the TEAM this year. as long as they don’t lose much time in the ttt, Tyler will be a real threat.
One rider wears the yellow jersey, but the way the TdF race is ridden these days team tactics play a big role. If it’s close, it may come down to who has the better, fitter team over the course of the three weeks.
Fleck,
That was exactly my same point but a few short days ago:
"The speculation by everyone is interesting and entertaining but omits a critical factor: team strength!
For many years now, the Blue Train has demonstrated the value of a strong/strongest team in the TDF.
Last year, I don’t think Armstrong would have been nearly as successful if his team had been weaker/less capable of delivering him to the critical points in the many stages. They also succesfully “carried” him when he was suffering and trying to get over the hump/bad luck.
The 2002 Postal team was the strongest team ever according to Lance before 2003. Last year’s team seemed even stronger, because it was relied on even more to help get Armstrong through his weak start.
Even with the personnel changes over the last year, I don’t believe the Postal team has been weakened by those changes. I am convinced they are still the strongest team in the tour. As others have pointed out, they are also the most experienced at riding in cross winds and working together as “one”. Not only this, but their experience factor keeps going up as well as their confidence factor for all they accomplish in overcoming the many obstacle that develop in the course of each Tour.
All things considered regarding the strengths of various individuals, I feel strongly that when the top riders are very evenly matched, the strongest team becomes the deciding factor. And let’s not forget, it seems no one is capable of suffering to the degree Armstrong is willing to suffer, even Hamilton.
Lastly, there is the experience factor. Of all the active riders, only Lance and Jan know exactly what it takes to win the Tour. And no one is more experienced at this than Lance. He has reminded himself every year for the last four years, and especially so last year!
I guess you can figure out where my money will be.
It will be interesting and I hope very exciting. I’m looking forward to it very much.
Just my 2 cents, FWIW."
Lance isn’t the underdog. He’s the favorite. These posts naming other winners are more wishful thinking than anything else. No one has shown anything so far, except that there are several riders in excellent form who can take the win if one or more of the others has an off day or two. Lance is in the driver’s seat.
RP