Initial Mossad intel reporting on Iranian attack planning, with intel spikes, and US or allies interests being targets. National Security Advisor Bolton, the Iran hawk, making bold troop, air and ship movements into theater in response. Now reports of Saudi and/ or UAE tanker sabotage in the Gulf of Oman with no specifics whatsoever.
Something is up. The lack of details and specificity is troubling but then it may be just early on. Right now can’t help but be reminded of the Tonkin Gulf incident. Why am I concerned with the Trump Bolton, Shanahan team running this show?
Initial Mossad intel reporting on Iranian attack planning, with intel spikes, and US or allies interests being targets. National Security Advisor Bolton, the Iran hawk, making bold troop, air and ship movements into theater in response. Now reports of Saudi and/ or UAE tanker sabotage in the Gulf of Oman with no specifics whatsoever.
Something is up. The lack of details and specificity is troubling but then it may be just early on. Right now can’t help but be reminded of the Tonkin Gulf incident. Why am I concerned with the Trump Bolton, Shanahan team running this show?
Because Bolton has less regard for innocent human life than Drogon would be my guess.
Starting a war with Iran would be an order of magnitude dumber than GW Bush’s decision to attack the Iraqs. There is absolutely no need for this.
Its being driven by the Saudis and Israelis (AIPAC) who want to maintain control of thew gulf region. In exchange they supporting the Trump administration.
Yet - the Persians are much more natural ally to the west than the Arabs.
Kind of interesting because Trump seems more the isolationist than the hawk. He likes to make a bold move without a real commitment to foreign entanglement, where Bolton is all in for the fight, any fight, if he thinks it improves American interests, security, or place in the world. No idea where Shanahan is on most things.
Starting a war with Iran would be an order of magnitude dumber than GW Bush’s decision to attack the Iraqs. There is absolutely no need for this.
Its being driven by the Saudis and Israelis (AIPAC) who want to maintain control of thew gulf region. In exchange they supporting the Trump administration.
Yet - the Persians are much more natural ally to the west than the Arabs.
The actors and their influence so far reads like a script and a prelude to events that could lead to an order of magnitude increase in dumb decision making. Persians were a much more natural ally, did not the Ayatollah fix that for us back when?
Persians were a much more natural ally, did not the Ayatollah fix that for us back when?
Iran / Persia was either a direct ally or at least supportive of the west for the longest time. The original mid-east oil boom went through Iran. By the 1950’s the Iranians waned more sovereign control and economic benefit over the various US & UK oil businesses there. The democratically elected government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh was doing just that.
So in 1953 the USA went and engineered a coup and put into power the Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ). https://en.wikipedia.org/...n_coup_d’état
As you can imagine, having a foreign power install a puppet dictator over you wasn’t very popular with the Persians. Over the next 20 years the Shah lived a flamboyantly excessive lifestyle while his people grew poorer. He felt safe doing this because he was protected by the US. His secret police killed / tortured dissenters, but overlooked the religious school. That was his mistake. So the people turned to the last organized group that they thought could free them from the Shah’s tyranny - the Islamist. In retrospect they traded one tyranny for another. But the moral of this story is that the US got too greedy and created the Ayatollah monster. Now the power of the ayatollahs is waning. The youth is quietly pushing for more liberal, secular freedom. Its a question of time until the theocracy crumbles from within. Starting a war with Iran will strengthen the theocracy. That will be bad for the Iranian people. It will also be bad for the USA, and the rest of the world. The only one’s that will benefit from this are: Trump (he will get to be a “war president” just in time for the next election), the House of Saud (by harming the one nation that can challenge their leadership role throughout the Islamic world) and Bibi Netanyahu - who needs a good bogeyman to rally the ultra-nationalists around.
It’s a win-win-win. Trump wins. Israel wins. Saudi Arabia wins. And I almost forgot about the American people who still have not gotten over the Iranian hostage crisis.
It’s always the fault of Iran (at least since 1979).
In 1987 during the Iran-Iraq War, after an Iraqi missile attack on the USS Stark killed 37 US Navy personnel, we blamed Iran.
“Washington used the incident to pressure Iran, which it later blamed for the whole situation. President Reagan said “We’ve never considered them hostile at all”, and “the villain in the piece is Iran”.”
It’s always the fault of Iran (at least since 1979).
In 1987 during the Iran-Iraq War, after an Iraqi missile attack on the USS Stark killed 37 US Navy personnel, we blamed Iran.
“Washington used the incident to pressure Iran, which it later blamed for the whole situation. President Reagan said “We’ve never considered them hostile at all”, and “the villain in the piece is Iran”.”
I’m kinda pissed off at myself. I wanted to buy some red rip oil calls back in Jan Feb time frame because the whole Saudi killing the reporter and international pressure would lead Saudi to do something which would piss off Iran which would eventually lead to Persian Gulf conflict. Sigh
Trump’s decision making? Remember Syria pullout decision made on spur of moment after talking with Turkish prez? Mattis resigned as result and now we have a Boeing exec over DOD…how reassuring, not.
Kind of interesting because Trump seems more the isolationist than the hawk. He likes to make a bold move without a real commitment to foreign entanglement, where Bolton is all in for the fight, any fight, if he thinks it improves American interests, security, or place in the world. No idea where Shanahan is on most things.
So it is with all things Trump, personalities play way too much importance. He personalizes everything. Bolton and Pompeo are driving this train. Trump has played the isolationist card, but this is an Israel play. Like Syria where his rogue outathere sentiment was adjusted, he will listen to Bibi (through Bolton) first. Shanahan, as acting secretary with permanent status being dangled, is a puppet only. Bibi’s Mossad intelligence lead here is telling if that reporting is truth and not fake.
Persians were a much more natural ally, did not the Ayatollah fix that for us back when?
Iran / Persia was either a direct ally or at least supportive of the west for the longest time. The original mid-east oil boom went through Iran. By the 1950’s the Iranians waned more sovereign control and economic benefit over the various US & UK oil businesses there. The democratically elected government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh was doing just that.
So in 1953 the USA went and engineered a coup and put into power the Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ). https://en.wikipedia.org/...n_coup_d’état
As you can imagine, having a foreign power install a puppet dictator over you wasn’t very popular with the Persians. Over the next 20 years the Shah lived a flamboyantly excessive lifestyle while his people grew poorer. He felt safe doing this because he was protected by the US. His secret police killed / tortured dissenters, but overlooked the religious school. That was his mistake. So the people turned to the last organized group that they thought could free them from the Shah’s tyranny - the Islamist. In retrospect they traded one tyranny for another. But the moral of this story is that the US got too greedy and created the Ayatollah monster. Now the power of the ayatollahs is waning. The youth is quietly pushing for more liberal, secular freedom. Its a question of time until the theocracy crumbles from within. Starting a war with Iran will strengthen the theocracy. That will be bad for the Iranian people. It will also be bad for the USA, and the rest of the world. The only one’s that will benefit from this are: Trump (he will get to be a “war president” just in time for the next election), the House of Saud (by harming the one nation that can challenge their leadership role throughout the Islamic world) and Bibi Netanyahu - who needs a good bogeyman to rally the ultra-nationalists around.
A succinct distillation of the history of the Gulf and it’s oil. Patience for the waning of cleric power and allowing the new younger generation of Persians to ascend is lacking as events of late indicate. Canceling nuclear deal and the lifting of waivers from sanctions helps the Sauds and cements the clerics and their guards power.
So who is placing the waterline (not keel so as to be not terribly destructive) limpet mines on those 4 tankers at anchor in the Gulf of Oman?
I think Saudi have a much bigger headache in qatar
Saudi has a massive economical problem, the transition away from oil to what? and a limited time to pull it off
It has a Vision to privatise everything.
The UAE would follow suadj whilst it has the balance of power but that’s going to change
Oman and Kuwait are broadly indifferent to the infighting between the other gcc states
Other gcc states, like Iran, are liberalising. The UAE aims to be a east west hub servicing something like 140m transit passengers
Who’s going to Saudi outside of haj and umrah? Unless Saudi undergoes a westernisation and tolerance to all things harm its not happening
Iran is a big player, part of Saudis rage with Qatar is its links with Iran and the fact that Saudi no longer has the power to keep all gcc states in their respective boxes
I’d hope we can avoid a regional conflict and they can keep the straights of hormuz open but who knows
The geo politics and local politics in the region are changing, significanly, including in saudi
I think we can be reasonably certain in the event of, as I heard a US diplomat in Brussels say this morning, kinetic action in the region. There won’t be a world Cup there
It’s a win-win-win. Trump wins. Israel wins. Saudi Arabia wins. And I almost forgot about the American people who still have not gotten over the Iranian hostage crisis.
And lose-lose -lose as well. The commercial trucker with gas pump increases, the combatants that will die (who are too young to even know of those hostages) in the pending conflict and last but not least Jared loses because his plan for the elusive peace in the mideast just got thrown in the shitcan.
The old zero sum game continues to play out. Although some might say the losers weigh more heavily.
The geo politics and local politics in the region are changing, significanly, including in saudi
I think we can be reasonably certain in the event of, as I heard a US diplomat in Brussels say this morning, kinetic action in the region. There won’t be a world Cup there
Turmoil in the mIddle east. It is the one constant in the world. The befores, the here and nows and the futures. Here’s hoping you get the job and the World Cup goes on as planned.