I think it is highly individual; I don’t think you take your power from any cycling test and then pick a percentage of that for race effort. Peoples ability to run off the bike just are not similar enough.
Schedule a half, soon. Then double the time and add an hour as a ROUGH starting point. Otherwise, bike long and run at least 15 miles, 18-20 would be better. If you are really confident in your ability to judge how well you are running, you might be able to get a good estimate off a 4-5 mile run after a 112 mile bike, carefully comparing HR to when running fresh, and then see if the HR is something you can hold for the +3 hours the run will take.
First thing I’d say is that you want to be smooth and efficient on the swim. Don’t blow it in the water and leave nothing for the run. It happens. I’ll let more knowledgeable folks comment on the bike power. Try PMing Rich Strauss. He talks about this somewhere around here, I think.
I was hoping to catch someones interest in using numerical methods to predict performance.
LOL! Predict performance? Based on what! You said this was your FIRST triathlon! Why would you want to do an IM as your first tri? Hence your question … my first IM was at age 34 (or 35 I can’t remember) after MANY other tris. I KNEW that sub 12 would be easy, sub 11 if I execute, etc.
Best advice I could give is during the bike - if you feel any quad burning at all, you are going to hard and back off (even if it feels ridiculously slow). It really is all about the run and having some fresh legs for the marathon. Hopefully, you have run a marathon before and know what mile 20 there is like …
my advice is to do several long rides with main sets in them as well as a few steady state rides over the time that you think you can ride. you should have an approximation of this by looking at your power numbers and rides. Many people peg an IM ride to a % of FTP, I tend to have my athletes learn what wattage they are riding in training, then ride slightly below that wattage in the race.
Sorry about that. I wasnt suggesting that I would be able to predict my performance. I completely understand that finishing is the only realistic goal … though I am hoping to finish before dark (which I think will be about 9:30). I have run quite a few marathons and done lots of centuries… and have done a few > 1/2 im distance bricks. So I think that this should be possible.
What I am concerned about is that I have a tendency to go way to hard on the bike. Especially when I see people in front of me. So what i am trying to do is figure out a way (a number based way) to throttle things so that I have a chance of doing OK in the run (doing OK means avoiding the death shuffle). Though maybe that is not even possible.
Swim easy…Bike easy…run the entire marathon. Seriously. This will probably yield the best time. You could shoot for the dreaded “bike split beat the run split”…but that doesn’t sound like fun.
You should be biking at slightly above a “recovery” ride for the first 70 or so miles…then if done properly…you should be passing all of those that went out too hard the final 40 miles. There will be a ton of people on the course…you can’t chase them all. If someone blows by you on the bike…let them go…they are probably faster than you.
Determining exactly how hard to ride in an IM can be difficult. As the other posters have mentioned, go easier than you think you need to. Now, to make that more precise, and you might as well as you have the best means to do that in a power meter revolves around the course itself. While it is great to determine an optimal average for the whole IM ride, and there are good quidelines for that around on the net and in the Allen and Coggan book, you aren’t going to try to hold your goal average watts all the time. It is best to think about the course itself and the conditions it presents. How many hills are there, how long will it take to ride them, things like that. Develop specific wattage ceilings for these situations based on your abilities and stick with those limits, no matter how good you feel on race day.
For most AG’ers 70-74% FTP is about what people seem to do (Normalized) if they want to run well. It’ll depend a lot on whether your are a sub 10 hour racer vs. 14 hour…Don’t “chase” watts. Use the PM to hold back for the first 2-4 hours of the ride. I use ceilings: power ceilings, heart rate ceilings, RPE ceilings…and try to keep all below the plan (esp. early)…though I’ll often use a +/- 10 watts, or 5 heart beats…and sometimes I ignore it…
Also use the PM to rest when speed is a few mph above goal average.