Oil tanker 'attacks'

The Coffee Shop
1

Seems kind of suspicious that an oil tanker is ‘attacked’ as the price of oil is reaching lows. Now all the sudden the price jumps up.

2

Meanwhile in the gulf…

3

It’s like some sort of distant rumblings… I hope it doesn’t portent troubling storm

4

More suspicious that the attacks occurred on ships carrying Japanese cargo when the Japanese PM was in Iran.

5

I’ll repeat what I wrote in another thread… the most likely culprits (in my opinion) are:

  • The Saudis want to take down Iran as they are a competitor to the title of ‘leader of the Islamic world’ and this attack will help bolster oil prices without needing OPEC to cut production. They have proven over and over that they will do anything to further their interest with little regard for the legal or ethical aspects.

  • The Israelis want to take down Iran as they see it as the only genuine threat to their control of the middle east. Israel is well know for these types of ‘special operations’.

  • The Russians want to create instability in the region. Both to distract rivals (USA, Britain, Israel), and to boost oil prices and to sell more weapons. This may be an opportunistic “stir the pot” move.

  • The USA has hard line war-hawks (Bolton, Miller) who may want to create a reason for going to war with Iran

  • The Syria / the remnants of ISIS would love to distract the world from their part of the world and shift the military focus to the Gulf of Oman or Persian Gulf. Highly unlikely as they lack the capability in the region and at sea.

I’m 99% sure that the shell / torpedo will prove to be of Iranian manufacture. Most of the players above would have been smart enough to get one and use that.

6

https://media1.giphy.com/media/6yxKRVrfwYklAap4hy/giphy.gif?cid=790b76115d0272096d302e7063422dda&rid=giphy.gif
.

7

It’s like some sort of distant rumblings… I hope it doesn’t portent troubling storm

Wishful thinking

8

More suspicious that the attacks occurred on ships carrying Japanese cargo when the Japanese PM was in Iran.

Probably the result of a slightly-incompetent state actor. I’ll go with Saudi Arabia. Russia is a close second for a culprit though they are decidedly not incompetent when it comes to this sort of thing. Targeting a Japanese flagged vessel, assuming it was the Russians, would just be a very subtle “fuck you” which wouldn’t be unprecedented given historical Russo-Japanese relations.

9

Iran will get the blame of course but keep your eye on the Saudis. they have the most to gain.