Probably not a bad decision to throw him right at long course given his background. I think expectations in terms of his ability are a lot higher as he’s done an open marathon with solid time, swam competitively and cycling and speed skating are of course very similar disciplines… make lots of power with your legs.
Maybe Ohno can join Slowtwitch and post some power files and update his progress towards Kona. It would be cool to see him under maybe 4:20 and show that he could have “earned” a KQ on his own. I’m just not sure about his running speed off the bike.
So what are the predictions. I don’t know that course, but I’ll go with with 28:00/2:18/1:32 = 4:21 with transitions. Places top 5 in his age group.
Probably not a bad decision to throw him right at long course given his background. I think expectations in terms of his ability are a lot higher as he’s done an open marathon with solid time, swam competitively and cycling and speed skating are of course very similar disciplines… make lots of power with your legs.
Maybe Ohno can join Slowtwitch and post some power files and update his progress towards Kona. It would be cool to see him under maybe 4:20 and show that he could have “earned” a KQ on his own. I’m just not sure about his running speed off the bike.
So what are the predictions. I don’t know that course, but I’ll go with with 28:00/2:18/1:32 = 4:21 with transitions. Places top 5 in his age group.
Personally I think that would be a pretty amazing time for him. First tri, cold water, hot day, maybe some wind. 4:21 would have won his AG last year, close to top 15 overall.
Probably not a bad decision to throw him right at long course given his background. I think expectations in terms of his ability are a lot higher as he’s done an open marathon with solid time, swam competitively and cycling and speed skating are of course very similar disciplines… make lots of power with your legs.
Maybe Ohno can join Slowtwitch and post some power files and update his progress towards Kona. It would be cool to see him under maybe 4:20 and show that he could have “earned” a KQ on his own. I’m just not sure about his running speed off the bike.
So what are the predictions. I don’t know that course, but I’ll go with with 28:00/2:18/1:32 = 4:21 with transitions. Places top 5 in his age group.
Personally I think that would be a pretty amazing time for him. First tri, cold water, hot day, maybe some wind. 4:21 would have won his AG last year, close to top 15 overall.
I think he’ll be on the plus side of 5 hours.
I think he’ll be faster than 5, but I doubt he’ll go 4:2X.
According to Athlinks he ran the Chicago half marathon in 1:40, and the NYC marathon in 3:25 (both in 2011). I know that was a few years ago and there’s a great chance he’s in better shape now (as far as sport-specificity is concerned, not knocking his olympic level fitness on the ice), but as a stranger to the half-iron distance I doubt he’ll pick up a half marathon PR on the same day as his first half iron.
34:00/2:25/1:43 is my prediction…add in time for transitions…I’m predicting a 4:50
According to Athlinks he ran the Chicago half marathon in 1:40, and the NYC marathon in 3:25 (both in 2011). I know that was a few years ago and there’s a great chance he’s in better shape now (as far as sport-specificity is concerned, not knocking his olympic level fitness on the ice), but as a stranger to the half-iron distance I doubt he’ll pick up a half marathon PR on the same day as his first half iron.
34:00/2:25/1:43 is my prediction…add in time for transitions…I’m predicting a 4:50
Not bad at all for a first half iron.
I’m just optimistic he kick some butt. But you guess is probably closer. Come on, I’m planning on besting my Marathon by over 20 minutes in my first IM this fall… of course I’ve only run one open marathon and that was 1997.
If I hadn’t done an open 1/2 mary 3 weeks ago, I’d have a shot at coming closer to my PR from 2 years ago this weekend. Don’t underestimate the impact of increasing training load by about 2X what you were doing previously. He might have the potential to going under 4:10, but a sub 4:20 could be possible on hte first shot since he has a coach, etc.
But your right, realistically, he plays it safe and rides at maybe 80% and cruises the run at an 7:30-8’ pace.
I’m pretty sure he should be able to swim sub 30 being a former state qualifier. Especially wet suit legal. I was only a 1:10 100y breast stroke swimmer and 57:00 100y free in high school and I went 33:00 non-wetsuit in my first 70.3 swimming about 6000y/week. He’s a lot better swimmer than me.
My prediction is 4:30-5:00. I already added Ohno on my Trackr list on IMtrackr app and anxious to get his race split.
While I’m here, you guys should tell your friends and family to download the IMtrackr iOS app from the App Store. It’s free to download. Your fans can add you to the Trackr list and on race day, IMtrackr app will deliver updates via push notifications every time you hit your race milestones. Below is the link:
Doubt he even goes under 5. Having never raced before, I doubt he is going all out, or even “mostly” out. I suspect it is a long training day for him.
Dude better go under 5. I went 5:20 in my first HIM, horribly undertrained, non-wetsuit, road bike with box rims, clip-on aero bars, road helmet, over biked and a walked a lot the last 6 miles for an exposed, hot and humid 2:01 run time.
… and I told myself I’d never do that sh** again and NO WAY I’ ever do a full IM. Funny how that works.
Just putting that out there… and he has a lot more talent than me, and hopefully is training a lot more and smarter… and I suspect has a pretty fast bike. The bike and helmet I have now would have saved me about 8 minutes alone. Proper pacing and run training about 15 minutes.
I was wondering about that too. His fitness may translate pretty well over to at least biking/running, but he may take it easy on his first. Especially since this is a small piece of a bigger story (since the climax is Kona). It would be anti-climactic for him to do a sub-5 in his first half. That said, I start about 10 minutes after, and I was wondering if I would catch him or not (I’m about a 4:50-5 hr).
Doubt he even goes under 5. Having never raced before, I doubt he is going all out, or even “mostly” out. I suspect it is a long training day for him.
As long as he has a decent swim there is no way he doesn’t go under 5. The bike is a net descent and the run is pancake flat. The bike is basically 4 hills with 5-6 downhills.
Well, what I understand is he has been out swimming PNF. Don’t know what swim shape she is in, but she is never really out of shape (all relative for a former sub 9 athlete with 8 Kona wins).
Doubt he even goes under 5. Having never raced before, I doubt he is going all out, or even “mostly” out. I suspect it is a long training day for him.
I could probably get near 5:00 at Boise and I’m 12 years older than him and I don’t have his pedigree, talent or genetics. I have tri experience in my favor but whoopity-doo.
Doubt he even goes under 5. Having never raced before, I doubt he is going all out, or even “mostly” out. I suspect it is a long training day for him.
I could probably get near 5:00 at Boise and I’m 12 years older than him and I don’t have his pedigree, talent or genetics. I have tri experience in my favor but whoopity-doo.
32 min swim and 2:30 bike and the guy is running 8ish minute per mile pace. Should be in at 4:4x high including transitions (combined transition a credible 5 minutes).