Of Home Runs and the age of 35

The Coffee Shop
1

I’m on a numbers kick, so bear with me …

Of the top 20 players on the All-Time home run list, SEVEN of them have INCREASED their “home run rate” (AB/HR) AFTER the age of 35. ARod is not on the list; he’s only 31.

  1. “Hammerin’” Hank Aaron, 2. Barry “BALCO” Bonds, 3. Ken Griffey “Junior”, 4. Mark “Big Mac” McGwire, 5. Rafael “Finger Pointer” Palmeiro, 6. Ted “Splendid Splinter” Williams, 7. Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas

Now, THIS is where it GETS interesting. Let’s look at how MUCH their home run rate increased after the age of 35.

Aaron: 17.4 ==> 14.2 (-3.2)
Bonds: 16.1 ==> 9.1 (-7.0)
Griffey: 14.7 ==> 14.6 (-0.1)
McGwire: 11.0 ==> 8.4 (-2.6)
Palmeiro: 20.2 ==> 15.3 (-4.9)
Williams: 15.7 ==> 13.7 (-2.0)
Thomas: 16.1 ==> 13.3 (-2.8)

Keep in mind that ALL these guys are freaks. They are the best of the best. Not only that, they DEFY the trend of performance decreasing with age (especially after 35) even AMONG other greats. Guys that maintain their performance past 35 are amazing, guys that improve it are just off the planet (or something else).

There is not an adjective that describes Bonds’ increased performance past the age of 35. Here’s an illustrative analogy that puts it into perspective …

From 1998 to 2001, Sammy Sosa had (perhaps) the greatest 4 year run a power hitter has ever had. He hit 66, 63, 50, and 64 HRs when 60HRs in a season had only been done twice in 70 years. His HR rate was 10.1 … Bonds HR Rate AFTER the age of 35 is BETTER than that.

Even my guys at baseball Prospectus will bring up that Ted Kluzewski’s home run totals jumped from 25, 13, and 16 to 40, 49, and 47. But, what they don’t mention is this occurred when TK was 28-30, which is considered “prime years” for a baseball player. That much increase AFTER the age of 35, as compared to other GREATS is simply unbelievable (and when I say “unbelievable”, I mean “not able to be believed”).

2

There is one aspect of physical performance that does not decline with age, at least not by age 35, and that is muscular strength and power.

power lifters peak pretty late in life.

3

I’ve often heard that of baseball players as a reason why aging players still have valuie.

I think it can be demonstrated that powqer hiiters hold a good deal of power in their aging years, some even maintain their prime power levels, while even fewer still increase their power numbers at that age. Only one has done it to such a degree as to not even be comparable with other superfreaks.

Aaron’s production increased, but he also moved to a stadium nicknamed “The Launching Pad”, Bonds however moved to stadiums located in “homer Hell” especially for lefties.

Obviously the point I’m dancing around here is that Barry juiced, and we don’t need Greg Anderson to tell us. The body transformation and drastic performance increase at an advanced athletic age are obvious.

STILL, the more I look at his numbers, I’m wondering if he is the ONLY person that could accomplish this (drugs or not). What he’s done past 35 is almost unimaginable. Aaron’s staying power is also incredible, but not even in the same league as BLB

4

Can someone explain why we are debating whether Bonds used steroids?

He said he used them.

5

True.

I had, yet, to really look at his post 35yo statistics. I’m stunned. I would never have believed a person could do this, even with steroids.

I think it shows, that a Barry Bonds on steroids is STILL head and shoulders above any of his peers on steroids. It’s just amazing … not that I am intentionally making a defense case for him. Add onto that Aaron finished his career at a place nicknamed “The Launching Pad” and Bonds is finishing his career (and making his vast improvements) in 2 stadiums that could be called “Homer Hell” (especially for lefties), and it just defies imagination.

It also shows A LOT about Hank Aaron. Looking through his year by year totals, sometimes under 30, rarely over 45. Like clockwork.

It’s sorta like bodybuilding, you know they’re on steroids, you know steroids build muscle, but when you actually see someone 5’7 275 pounds @ 4%BF (“onion skin”) is just blows you away. It’s like … not … human.

6

Agreed. Bonds was, skill wise, one of the best hitters of all time. Then he got massively stronger.

Patrick Arnold is a great steroid expert, and Barry Bonds was lucky to find his drugs.

It was the perfect match. Take a supremely skilled hitter, mate him with a skilled steroid artist, and watch all his pop outs become home runs.

Even more than Bond’s home run rate, is his overall offensive effectiveness. His OPS stats…just…are… NUTTY. The man knows how to not get struck out too, and his home run threat got him so many walks!

7

TT - I don’t think any knowledgable baseball fan is going to argue that Bonds is a great player. Arguably one of the top 50 offensive players of all-time. What Bonds has done with steroids has taken him from maybe a 50th ranked player to a top 5, with methods that are considered not natural and not condoned within the sports community. Three of your guys here are big time steroid users in Rafy, McGwire and Bonds. Look at how Bonds rate jumped compared to everyone else. My argument is Bonds to transformed himself from a 40 HR (naturally) guy to a 70 HR guy (unnaturally). He likely would have had 500 to 600 HRs if he would have stayed clean. There a lot of guys who with the juice could have done the 70 HR thing and put up those gaudy power numbers.

8

Some PEDs, especially HGH, have been known to improve eyesight. It’s commonly known, so hopefully no one is interpreting me as playing the “Jose Canseco” role here. The year he walked 232 times is just an atrosity.

Without steroids, he may have set the single-season doubles record. The man just hits line drives to all fields. With roids, those line drives go 415 feet. grin

Lately, he has really been swinging at bad pitches, especially pulling outside corner pitches to 2nd base. Those balls used to be driven to the left-center gap (or over the fence).

9

If you plot out the top seasons of all time in terms of 3*OBP + slugging (which is one of the more accurate predictors of offensive production)…bond’s peak year is off the charts. its hilarious.

10

Arguably one of the top 50 offensive players of all-time.

I don’t like Bonds for the way he plays the game (I can list 2 specific examples if desired), but honestly, he was probably a top 5 offensive player before he left Pittsburh (i.e., before steroids). He had won 3 MVPs there, and won 4 straight in SF (and he was robbed on one that was given to Jeff Kent). No one else has even come close to that (and Bonds is competing against other steroid users).

Three of your guys here are big time steroid users in Rafy, McGwire and Bonds.

And Sosa. That was part of the point, Bonds on roids is better than anyone else on roids … way better.

My argument is Bonds to transformed himself from a 40 HR (naturally) guy to a 70 HR guy (unnaturally).

I don’t think there’s any reasonable arguement to dispute that.

The thing is that even with hitting 40HR/yr pace he’s STILL one of the top 5 offensive players ever … and when you consider speed and defense, it’s basically Bonds, Mays, Aaron in the discussion, and that’s it. (FWIW, Bonds has only hit more than 50HRs one time … when he hit 73 in '01). Realistically he went from a 30HR guy to a 45HR guy. But, I will also point out, according to the numbers, the biggest “power spikes”, occur in guys that went from 15-20 to 25-30HRs (the mid-range guys), and the biggest offenders (positive tests/suspensions) to date have been relief pitchers (no one needs recovery like RPs).

He likely would have had 500 to 600 HRs if he would have stayed clean. There a lot of guys who with the juice could have done the 70 HR thing and put up those gaudy power numbers.

  1. I agree. Not only would he have had 500-600 HRs, but he would still be the only 400/400 guy (with gold gloves).
  2. Not a lot of guys could hit 70HRs. IMO, most of the guys juicing are hitting 30 or less homers per year, and doing the best they can to hit that many.
  3. I think there’s a few guys not juicing (or haven’t been caught yet) who could hit 70+ in one year, but not many.
11

TT,

I should have clarified, when I say a lot of guys could have hit 70, I’m talking in the history of the game, not just current players. Guys such as Ruth, Mays, Gehrig, McCovey…all the way down to guys like Stargell, Greenber, Foster, Banks…etc.

12

Gotcha. I agree.

Mickey Mantle on steroids is just an insane thought. Imagine him strong, fast, and HEALTHY.

Individuals also have different “tolerance” levels of steroids and different numbers of receptor sites, etc. So the same amounts of the same steroids affect different individuals, well … differently.

Messing with hormones is actually fascinating stuff. =)

I guess the point I was really making is that 73 is actually NOT one of his most impressive stats. OBA/SLG/OPS, etc.

There are also other “calculated” equivalent statistics that are just outrageous when compared to others. If you want to have some cough fun sometime, look around these stat nerd sites and see where ARod stacks up on the ALL-TIME lists (of shortstops), just at his current age of 31. It’s astounding.

13

FFF, please list all the years Bonds hit more than 50 home runs. I’ll leave plenty of space for you to put all those seasons down here.

That’s about 20 lines. Is that enough space? And also please compute, from the list you compiled, how many HRs would be “subtracted” form his total had he not gone from a 40 HR guy to a 70 HR guy. Baseball being a game of numbers, I lik to see someone use actual numbers when they make a point, instead of blanket statements.

14

Can anyone point to a link that shows HGH to help with eyesight? Not picking on you specifically TT, but it seemed awfully convenient that I have never heard this in any context other than Bonds and steroids. I’d just like to see something independent of that for once.

I have to say though, I must be taking steroids by osmosis. The hat size thing is always one I enjoy. When I was 21, I wore a size 7 fitted cap. By 25, I needed a 7 1/4. I’m 32 now, and I can guarantee I’m at least one size bigger. Yet I’m still BOP in the tris. Or does a larger head only relate to bat speed?

At least when you make the comparisons, you are pointing that ripping on Bonds misses the fact he was so much better than the other steroid users. Is Bob Gibson a better pitcher than Greg Maddux because Gibson had a 1.12 ERA in 68? Does anyone really believe the players in the old days were 100% clean? Everyone likes to believe that it was “better” back then, but was it really? Or has enough time passed to allow people to romanticize, and gloss over that which is less than perfect.

I’m probably tarnishing a bunch of people’s idea of sainthood here, but doesn’t 2,632 straight games without something to help the recovery from time to time seem just a bit unlikely? What was the next closest streak to that during his time? I know it was at most 1/3 of the total. Ripken is the only player in 20 years with the “work ethic” to “tough out the little aches and pains”? Bonds hits a few more homers than the next few guys and gets lambasted, while another guy does something that is way, way, way beyond what anyone else of his time does, and we accept that it was done cleanly at face value. Hmmmm.

Not saying Bonds did or didn’t. If he did, he was doing the same thing everyone else in his era did. And he has spent the last 7 years in what is considered a pitcher’s park, but that right field fence is much closer than one thinks. Bonds isn’t hitting 460 footers into the water there. There was actually a need for a special dispensation from MLB to have the fence as close in as it is. You still have to hit the round ball with the ound bat in the right spot at the right time hit a home run. The wind affects as many fly balls a season for a batter as the steroids would turn flyouts into HRs. I buy the recovery argument and that’s it.

Most of all though, I am sick and tired of something that frankly is the sorts media trying to legitimize themselves with their very own Watergate, and they will prop this story up for as long as they can until they can find their own Deep Throat. The “this is what the people want” mantra has been betrayed many times by members of the sports media. Every third week on the Sports Reporters they will remind viewers that fans don’t vote on what they cover. I don’t turn on sportscenter to watch the steroid updates. I turn it on to see the scores and highlights, and they throw the steroid line in my face. Well, at least they used to. Now I go to the internet where I know I can find what I want and not have someone’s story pushed on me.

15

For some reason, I am more impressed with his 40/40 season.

16

**Can anyone point to a link that shows HGH to help with eyesight? Not picking on you specifically TT, but it seemed awfully convenient that I have never heard this in any context other than Bonds and steroids. I’d just like to see something independent of that for once. **

  1. I’m not being a smart-arse, but type “HGH and eyesight” into Google. There’ literally hundreds of sources I could link to. It’s common knowledge that HGH does everything from improve eyesight to diminish scar tissue, to grow muscle/bone, etc.

  2. However, that may not be relevant to Bonds b/c he hasn’t been linked to HGH. Athletes like HGH because it occurs in the body naturally and there’s no way to test for it since we all have various levels of it in our unique bodies. But, it doesn make your bones, organs, etc grow. I have seen pictures of guys whose elbows have grown 2-3 inches (looks as ridiculous as it sounds), jawbones grow leaving gaps between teeth (look at some hardcore bodybuilding pics, you’ll see it). HGH is some seriuos s— in large enough amounts.

  3. LASIK eye surgery also improves vision, so do glasses, and contacts, and other artificial methods. You see what I getting at here.

The most interesting link would be of the AG cyclist (perhaps) triathlete who took HGH under a doctor’s supervision to write a story about it. He found he could blow his compeitiotn away, his eyesight greatly improved, and well, he felt about 15 years younger (which is why it’s so popular in anti-aging clinics … we may one day all be on it).

Is Bob Gibson a better pitcher than Greg Maddux because Gibson had a 1.12 ERA in 68?

LIke duh. Bob Gibson was a Cardinal. Of course he was better than a two-time Cub.

Not saying Bonds did or didn’t.

You don’t have to, Bonds already said.

You still have to hit the round ball with the ound bat in the right spot at the right time hit a home run.

Not just that but you have to have the strength to force it out.

The expression I like the best is “You have to hit a round ball with a cylindrical bat, squarely.”

Everyone likes to believe that it was “better” back then, but was it really?

I was reading the other day about “power spikes”. Those years when a player’s home run performance goes up significantly. There have been 2 eras that have seen more than their share of power spoikes. The steroid era (obvoiusly), but also in the 70s (70-76), when these little things called “greenies” (amphetamines). I remember my pitching coach (Dan Schatzader) telling me about those. BF75, you should know Schatzy, he played for El Tigres in 80/81. Dude got a WS win in 87 (both in a game and the series) with an ERA of 6-something. Cheap-arse.

Every era has its challenges and shortcuts. But, even conceding that, NOTHING compares to the shortcut that steroids are. I’ll be bluntly honest, I have no reason to doubt Caminiti that 50-70% of guys were using. It’s not typically the stars that use, it’s the guys hanging on for their job, or struggling for that one pay-day (Matthews Jr) that can set them up.

I still remember Brady Anderson hitting 50 home runs as a ripped pretty-boy, in the days when 50 home runs was still reserved for Cecil Fielder (only to have his MVP given to Ripken, but hey let’s not branch into another topic).

17

I don’t know if bonds is clean now or not but one thing is sure, pitchers have lost a lot of their fear of him, he is getting grooved pitches he used to crush, now only go to the track, funny, how old he is starting to look, and his defense is fallen off too. It’s like in the NFL when an aging running back starts to slow down, it happens over night, the wheels just come off the bus, " What a drag it is getting old" and clean. :slight_smile:

18

I don’t know if it’s being clean, getting old, being tired, the pressure of the HR chase or what (likely all of the above), but he is “fouling” off (seemingly) a lot of 3-1 fastballs, and pulling a lot of outside corner pitches to seond base. Those pitches used to go bye-bye to left field.

Steroids havea trade off. Stronger muscles, better recovery (SuperHuman recovery, actually), but lead to tendon/ligament damage (various reasons). I don’t know how much barry’s knees have left. Once McGwire’s knees whent he couldn’t really drive much of anything, pure arm-swinger … which for him didn’t mean he hit little bloopers. grin

I admit freely and publically, a part of me hopes that Barry doesn’t ht 755 for the rest of the reason and retires. That’s not likely to happen. But …

He’ll still be great, but 755 will still mean something. By that I mean something MORE than, say, 60 in 152 means. It’s rather embarrassing that the other record went from 61 to 70 to 73. I also don’t think we can just concede that ARod is going to hit 800 homers, but that’s another discussion.

19

I don’t have much to add, but I really want to see ARod top Bonds before Bonds dies from all the complications from steroid use.

20

ESPN crew just mentioned how Morgan Ensburg was acquired as insurance for a Rookie. 2 years ago he was in contention for MVP or something like that, this year he was dropped.

Why aren’t guys like that being rumored for steroids? Seems like a pretty quick drop in performance and would warrant some suspicion.