Anyone informed on this subject?? Should we be afraid?? Concerned??
What is really going on???
I have read everything I could find on the subject of North Korea for the past three years or so. I have to read an intelligent thought regarding a potentially promising strategy for dealing with North Korea.
This whole situation is major league bad news, with no decent strategy available. It is basically a hold on and hope for the best situation.
I don’t know if you need to be afraid, but people in South Korea do.
I don’t think we can make the mistake of assuming that N.Korea will act as a “rational actor.” By that, I don’t mean they Kim Jong Il is a raving lunatic, foaming at the mouth, but that I’m not sure he goes through the typical process of weighing pros and cons of any given policy decision, and then picking the choice that is best for his country. Assuming he is afraid of China, or afraid of nuclear reprisal from us may be a misjudgement.
"Even if he goes south I don’t see the direct threat to the US. "
Do you see a threat to the 30,000some American troops in S.Korea?
“What has he done to the prove he is anything but a saber raddling nobody?”
He got nuclear weapons.
They build intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting the US. Do you not see the threat? A crazy man with his trigger finger on nuclear missiles that could wipe out cities on the west coast? Hello?
Add to that the fact that the country only source of income is selling weapons.
Now imagine if he felt his regime was doomed. Unlike Iraq, the military is completely brainwashed and might very well carry out an insane order.
Without going too heavy at this late hour read this:
Let me know if you can’t read the article and I will send a .pdf copy.
great link, tootall!
i hadn’t read that piece yet (those little blue books see more work as coasters than actual magazines some months)
here’s an excellent (new) book on the Hermit Kingdom
North Korea is probably the least understood country on earth.
Martin’s book paints a picture of a bizarrely frozen society, constantly girding for war/scrounging for edible plants…it’s scary, scary stuff.
Freedom is untidy.
Thanks for the recommendation. I ordered the book.
It is the same old story. We have only technical intelligence and no human intelligence, so we can only guess at what is going on. Intelligence officials try to connect the dots. Sometimes they underestimate the threat, sometimes they overestimate the threat.
I had read that the US detected certain rare gases that could only be the consequence of uranium enrichment. I was surprised that wasn’t mentioned in the article. When confronted in 1994 with the evidence, North Korea admitted it, then denied it and has repeatedly seemingly done both over the years since then.
These are tough, tough problems.
I believe you are correct in that there is both a fear and a respect for China. Culturally there is a long history between the two countries. I believe that NK has proven adept yanking the chain of the US, but I see a more complex situation with China.
First, China is willingly waging economic war on the US. We created the game, now they are learning fast and playing hard (inflation and the wealth factor will ultimately stabilize this).
Because China likes to play both sides, they will eagerly watch as the US stumbles once again in their approach to the NK issue. However, the Chinese won’t let the folks in Pyong Yang go too far from a militaristic perspective as it ultimately has a detrimental impact on China.
As always, the issue is much more complex than the american media portrays. The question I have is how many Ohio class ballistic missile subs are parked of the NK coast currently. I can only assume that each command, military, and nuclear (nucular) installation has its coordinates locked in the targeting system of its own missile.
RB
I’m not concerned with North Korea using a weapon as much as I worry about their possession setting off an arms race in the area. Japan may decide that it need to be more proactive in its own defense, Japan has quite a few reactors and civil enrichment facilities. South Korea and North Korea would not like a Japan with a less pacifist constitution (historically Korean has been Japans bitch when they go on a militant binge). South Korea may decide that a nuclear North Korea and Japan are unacceptable and start developing weapons. Taiwan may decide that US support is not good enough and start developing their own program. China would not be happy with pretty much any of this start ramping up both its conventional and nuclear programs, and since most of the food and fuel in North Korea flow through its border with China; China could decide to show North Korea who is boss by shutting down the flow of crucial goods. This would further destabilize North Korea. It is not North Korea having weapons that worries me it is the effect those weapons have on all of the surrounding countries that worries me.
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and developing delivery capability represent one of the most, and perhaps the most, urgent threats to the security of the United States and the free world.
Managing this threat will be complex and difficult. I would suggest a military response is absolutely the worst venue, especially at this point in time.
China may be the initial key to dealing with this- especially economically and diplomatically, although the situation is made increasingly complex by the odd nature of Kim Jong-Il’s leadership, character and “cult of personality” style regime.
For the people tasked with these circumstances, this is an immense and volatile challenge.
A grim possibility but a real one. Suppose the NK leader finds himself dying. Would his last heroic act be to launch a missile towards the south where we have troops stationed? NK has a history of blackmailing governments to get what they need to live. In my .02 this is all part of another blackmail scheme.
What is China’s stand on North Korea???
China could view this as a threat to thier own people. Also China is becoming an economic force - they may want stability in the area so that economic growth can continue.
Then again, North Korea is isolating themselves - taking them out of play on the manufacturing war. Meaning less compitition for China.
Does anyone know who China’s main supplier of oil is??
It certainly is a serious threat but I guess my biggest concern is nuclear material from the former Soviet Union getting into the wrong hands and ending up near my office in Washington DC. It seems that at least once a month I read a story about the interdiction of an illegal attempt to transport/transfer radioactive material within Russia or one the republics. If you want a real scare read “Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Nightmare” by Graham Allison. He claims that experts predict the US will be the victim of an attack within the next decade.
I don’t think we can make the mistake of assuming that N.Korea will act as a “rational actor.”
For all his personal oddities, Kim Jon Il seems to have played his game pretty well. Does he weigh the pros and cons and rationally decide on the course of action best for his country? No, but I think it could be argued that he rationally decides what’s best for his regime.
What has he done to the prove he is anything but a saber raddling nobody? Everytime he cries America gives. He has a lot to loose and nothing to gain out of war. Even if he goes south I don’t see the direct threat to the US.
I absolutely agree that North Korea poses no real direct threat to the US. He isn’t going to nuke us, because he knows full well what our response would be, and he isn’t suicidal.
The real concern with NK having nukes isn’t that they will drop one on an American city, it’s proliferation. There have already been reports that they’ve exported technology to Libya, for example.
(I did find Rumsfield’s new found skepticism about WMDs pretty amusing, though.)
crafty or cunning and rational are not the same things.
**crafty or cunning and rational are not the same things. **
Like, whatever. Either way, he isn’t going to be launching any missiles at LA anytime soon.
"Either way, he isn’t going to be launching any missiles at LA anytime soon. "
Yes, and unless it’s going to hit L.A. or New York, it must not be a threat to the U.S.