Negative Splitting RnR SD

Specifically for those who have raced RnR San Diego and anyone who has mastered the art of a negative-split marathon

I’m starting to fiddle with course strategy/pacing for my goal of 03:04:xx (+0, -1 min). I calculated and broke the course down into quarters, i.e. 1/4=10.5km. I’m using SI units when dividing the course into fourths because the numbers came out “cleaner” (42km v. 26.2mi, in the interest of simplification, I rounded down to 42km).

Pacing is as follows:
1/4 @ 7:10min/mi.
2/4 @ 7:05min/mi.
3/4 @ 7:00 min/mi.
4/4 @ 6:55 min/mi.

*1/4=10.5km=6.524mi.

These paces would yield a time below the goal 03:04:xx (03:03:46 to be precise)

Alas, my question! Given the course topography, do these splits seem reasonable? I understand it’s subjective to several characteristics of my training/athletic capacity, though, these variables aside, taking into account the aforementioned paces and course topography ONLY, how realistic is it to pace at 06:55 min/mi. at mile ~20, uphill? How have you strategized for a negative split? Thanks in advance!
P.S. My last HM (in March) time was 01:23:xx


Your goal pace looks reasonable given your last HM assuming you’ve done the training. How many marathons have you run? I’d say say those splits would be really hard to pull off and you might be better off aiming for even splits.

Course Profile found here: http://runrocknroll.competitor.com/files/2011/03/SD13_Elevation-2-6-13.pdf
That hill at mile 20 is about 250 feet! That is pretty brutal to throw in the end of a downhill then flat race.

People love negative splits, but that only really makes sense if the halfs are even difficulty. For RnR SD, I would guess that you would need to really hold back on that first half in order to negative split. And that would probably make for a slower overall time. If you instead aim for an even effort throughout, the second half would be slower, but you’d finish faster.

I ran Seattle Marathon last November in 3:11, and it had a similar profile (and I started out pacing for a similar goal: 3:05 BQ…yup, I crashed and finished with miles in the low 8minute range).

I dont think negative split will be possible here, also a steep hill at mile 22 which is 1/4th the length of 163 climb. WIsh they kept the course same as last year

Not enough history about you or the course to know for sure however, based on what I have read…if you have proper hill work…I see no reason that you cant hit your splits. Of course the splits with the hills in them may be a little slow…your overall race can still be negative. I would simulate running the hill fatigued if I were you. For something like this…i would try to atleast get a simulation run in atleast once a week…9 to 10 times before the race. Or just plenty of hill work.

I have run a simulation of the course, both hills I am at 10 min a mile ( at a pace of just under 8 on flats) - so pretty much need to make that up with down hills at low 5 min miles
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