Ok. I’m trying to decide how to pace my marathon this weekend. My goal is 3:25:00. I’m a bigger runner (44 yo., 5’10", 175), and I tend to do better on long runs when I start slower and neg split the second half. Trying to decide how deep into the well I can dip and still have a chance at 3:25:00. Recent 5k is 20:28, HM 1:39:00. My most recent long run was 18 miles with last 8 at 7:40/mi and I had enough in the tank to run another 8. I know it’s going to be tight. Would you try and run even 7:50’s or Neg split? I was thinking 1:44:00/1:41:00. Too much?
I think you sound like you’re pretty fit. Probably more fit than 90% of the field at most marathon’s you’ll run these days. I’m going to say that you could probably run it in 3:21.
And if you haven’t done a marathon (raced one), I personally think you ought to just pace yourself for a realistic goal pace. To me, your goal of 3:25 sounds realistic based on what you’re saying your fitness level is. There are real experts up here (and I don’t profess to be one) but I’m a 46 year old guy and just think that I’d not count on a negative split in your first marathon. Don’t over do it, but don’t be afraid to put some good mile splits in the bank while you are strong. And based on what you’re saying, I think you can easily run 7:40 for the first 20-to-22 miles. Then it will be mental but your age and fitness level will be a factor. Bet that you will slow a bit and get some precious time in the bank early on. Again, I don’t mean friggin’ sprint like some of the young guys do (that I catch every single marathon after the first 5k because they have no clue on how to plan and run a marathon). Be smart. But as one guy said above, don’t leave anything on the course either. So I say…7:40mi as long as you can hold it. By mile 22, if you’re holding it, then you have some in the bank to easily hit 3:25 but adrenalin and crowds may take over and you’ll really surprise yourself and run a 3:21.
** Just noticed your HM. When did you run that? If that is recent, forget what I said above. You could run sub-3:30 but a 3:21 might be aggressive. Dunno. Depends on course, temps, etc. etc. Good luck though! You’re faster than me. Hoping for sub-3:20 myself next year…or so I keep telling myself the last few years. 