Two tankers are burning after being attacked
.
Gas prices have fallen about 2% this past month, despite oil and RBOB declining ~15%. You can probably expect a surge at the pump if anything comes of this, because we know increases are priced in immediately whereas weakness reaches the consumer months after the fact, if ever.
Pump price rant over. That area becomes a “hotbed” so often nobody takes it that seriously anymore. But it’s all the more reason to shoot for energy independence. Get back to train transport, eliminate long-haul trucking, invest in more efficient and alternatively fueled transportation. If gas prices went up a very noticeable amount, say, 50% because all hell broke out in the Gulf, the average American could be crushed financially.
Gas prices have fallen about 2% this past month, despite oil and RBOB declining ~15%. You can probably expect a surge at the pump if anything comes of this, because we know increases are priced in immediately whereas weakness reaches the consumer months after the fact, if ever.
Pump price rant over. That area becomes a “hotbed” so often nobody takes it that seriously anymore. But it’s all the more reason to shoot for energy independence. Get back to train transport, eliminate long-haul trucking, invest in more efficient and alternatively fueled transportation. If gas prices went up a very noticeable amount, say, 50% because all hell broke out in the Gulf, the average American could be crushed financially.
Or we just stop exporting oil and keep our prices down. We are energy independent buddy.
(Also we can always invade Canada and take their oil)
(Also we can always invade Canada and take their oil)
Last time that was attempted… https://www.wearethemighty.com/british-burned-white-house
(Also we can always invade Canada and take their oil)
Last time that was attempted… https://www.wearethemighty.com/british-burned-white-house
Whoa whoa whoa. I was lambasted for stating Canada was a Crown colony but the first thing posted about why not to invade is the Queen of England’s army will defend them?
This looks like frame job on Iran. I can hardly imagine a reason for them doing this - not much benefit and too much risk.
The list of more likely candidates is long.
- The Saudis want to take down Iran as they are a competitor to the title of ‘leader of the Islamic world’ and this attack will help bolster oil prices without needing OPEC to cut production
- The Israelis want to take down Iran as they see it as the only genuine threat to their control of the middle east. Israel is well know for these types of ‘special operations’.
- The Russians want to create instability in the region. Both to distract rivals (USA, Britain, Israel), to boost oil prices and to sell more weapons.
- The USA has hard line war-hawks (Bolton, Miller) who may want to create a reason for going to war with Iran
- The Syria / the remnants of ISIS would love to distract the world from their part of the world and shift the military focus to the Gulf of Oman or Persian Gulf.
(Also we can always invade Canada and take their oil)
Last time that was attempted… https://www.wearethemighty.com/...h-burned-white-house
Whoa whoa whoa. I was lambasted for stating Canada was a Crown colony but the first thing posted about why not to invade is the Queen of England’s army will defend them?
The Queen of Tuvalu will bring in the Tuvaluan army to defend us.
Good luck with that, the modern British Army could fit in a medium size football stadium these days, going nowhere and invading nothing. Sad times indeed.
But it’s all the more reason to shoot for energy independence. Get back to train transport, eliminate long-haul trucking, invest in more efficient and alternatively fueled transportation. If gas prices went up a very noticeable amount, say, 50% because all hell broke out in the Gulf, the average American could be crushed financially.
The U.S. is both energy independent (technically an exporter) and oil independent (when you net out imports and exports which has to do with blending different grades of oil… and again, the U.S. has been a minor exporter on and off since the beginning of '18). I think what you’re going to see going forward is the spread between WTI and Brent widen considerably.
I also tend to agree this isn’t Iran. My thoughts in bold below.
This looks like frame job on Iran. I can hardly imagine a reason for them doing this - not much benefit and too much risk.
The list of more likely candidates is long.
-
The Saudis want to take down Iran as they are a competitor to the title of ‘leader of the Islamic world’ and this attack will help bolster oil prices without needing OPEC to cut production
**This is probably the most likely candidate from an incentive standpoint. From a capability standpoint… that’s a bit more of a stretch. Certainly wouldn’t rule it out. Both tankers were hit from the west so it is certainly possible. ** -
The Israelis want to take down Iran as they see it as the only genuine threat to their control of the middle east. Israel is well know for these types of ‘special operations’.
Eh… fair point but they really don’t have the assets for this type of kinetic action. -
The Russians want to create instability in the region. Both to distract rivals (USA, Britain, Israel), to boost oil prices and to sell more weapons.
**I think this is vastly under-estimated and under-appreciated by just about… everyone. People assume that Russia’s sole purpose in life is to poke the U.S. and those same, simple-minded people also look at Russia’s defense of Syria and assume they’ll do the same for Iran. This is not the case. Russia has its own economic and geopolitical goals that aren’t entirely linked to the U.S. In the case of Syria, Russia wanted to keep Assad in power to prevent a regime change which would allow for a gas pipeline from traversing the country and thus threatening Russia’s grip on Europe’s natural gas market. In the case of Iran, it would actually be to Russia’s advantage to see the country burn. Russia also exports a lot of oil. Notice Russia didn’t send any sort of technical assistance to Venezuela, just mercenaries to make sure the idiot in charge, Maduro, stayed in charge (thus assuring Venezuela’s oil industry continues to decline). To further solidify my point on this, note that Russia recently decline Iran’s request to purchase an S-400 air defense system. https://www.bloomberg.com/...st-amid-gulf-tension ** -
The USA has hard line war-hawks (Bolton, Miller) who may want to create a reason for going to war with Iran
I don’t see the U.S. trying to pull a false-flag. This isn’t the 60s and the whole world is watching (and has the capability to literally “watch”). China, Russia, Iran, etc. would love to catch the U.S. red-handed and throw it under the bus. -
The Syria / the remnants of ISIS would love to distract the world from their part of the world and shift the military focus to the Gulf of Oman or Persian Gulf.
Given the nature of the attack and the weapons/vehicles/infrastructure they possess, this is highly unlikely.
Wag the Dog was such a great movie. Right up there with* Idiocracy. *
I never knew that both were predictive of last three years.
I’m amazed how the world has basically shrugged. Just two tankers burning in a choke point that sees 25% of the world’s oil. NBD.
I’m kind of surprised China hasn’t dispatched part of its fleet to “keep the peace†and shadow U.S. naval assets.
I also tend to agree this isn’t Iran. My thoughts in bold below.
This looks like frame job on Iran. I can hardly imagine a reason for them doing this - not much benefit and too much risk.
The list of more likely candidates is long.
-
The Saudis want to take down Iran as they are a competitor to the title of ‘leader of the Islamic world’ and this attack will help bolster oil prices without needing OPEC to cut production
**This is probably the most likely candidate from an incentive standpoint. From a capability standpoint… that’s a bit more of a stretch. Certainly wouldn’t rule it out. Both tankers were hit from the west so it is certainly possible. ** -
The Israelis want to take down Iran as they see it as the only genuine threat to their control of the middle east. Israel is well know for these types of ‘special operations’.
Eh… fair point but they really don’t have the assets for this type of kinetic action. -
The Russians want to create instability in the region. Both to distract rivals (USA, Britain, Israel), to boost oil prices and to sell more weapons.
**I think this is vastly under-estimated and under-appreciated by just about… everyone. People assume that Russia’s sole purpose in life is to poke the U.S. and those same, simple-minded people also look at Russia’s defense of Syria and assume they’ll do the same for Iran. This is not the case. Russia has its own economic and geopolitical goals that aren’t entirely linked to the U.S. In the case of Syria, Russia wanted to keep Assad in power to prevent a regime change which would allow for a gas pipeline from traversing the country and thus threatening Russia’s grip on Europe’s natural gas market. In the case of Iran, it would actually be to Russia’s advantage to see the country burn. Russia also exports a lot of oil. Notice Russia didn’t send any sort of technical assistance to Venezuela, just mercenaries to make sure the idiot in charge, Maduro, stayed in charge (thus assuring Venezuela’s oil industry continues to decline). To further solidify my point on this, note that Russia recently decline Iran’s request to purchase an S-400 air defense system. https://www.bloomberg.com/...st-amid-gulf-tension ** -
The USA has hard line war-hawks (Bolton, Miller) who may want to create a reason for going to war with Iran
I don’t see the U.S. trying to pull a false-flag. This isn’t the 60s and the whole world is watching (and has the capability to literally “watch”). China, Russia, Iran, etc. would love to catch the U.S. red-handed and throw it under the bus. -
The Syria / the remnants of ISIS would love to distract the world from their part of the world and shift the military focus to the Gulf of Oman or Persian Gulf.
Given the nature of the attack and the weapons/vehicles/infrastructure they possess, this is highly unlikely.
It very well could be Iran, or at least someone with ties to the Iranian government. I would just hope we treat that with a whole lot of skepticism and confirm it before we do something stupid.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/highly-likely-iran-responsible-oil-tanker-attack-gulf-oman-defense
Iran being blamed.
Oh they’re going to get blamed. No doubt about that. That was the whole point for whoever actually fired on those tankers.
It could be Iran but I would like to believe that Iran’s leadership is not suicidal. My $0.02 is that this will lead to increased personnel deployments to Saudi Arabia. 1,500 last time… maybe ~3,000 this time. What will be interesting is when Houthis decide to fire on American military assets in Saudi Arabia.
Well good thing that the top three officials in the defense department are not acting officials. I mean it would be crazy if we had the longest acting secretary of defense in our nation’s history and the white house had yet to even formally submit his name to the Senate for confirmation.
Good thing the defense department is well staffed, I mean can you imagine if we were not? That would take such a lazy administration.
America never seems to learn lessons from history. (some of) you lot are just itching to go in there and start another war, because the last ones were such great experiences. It’ll be another generation of your youth getting killed and maimed in a far flung part of the world, that you don’t understand and should leave well alone, for nothing.
What I hear you saying is to go get gas.
(Also we can always invade Canada and take their oil)
Last time that was attempted… https://www.wearethemighty.com/...h-burned-white-house
Whoa whoa whoa. I was lambasted for stating Canada was a Crown colony but the first thing posted about why not to invade is the Queen of England’s army will defend them?
The Queen of Tuvalu will bring in the Tuvaluan army to defend us.
So now you need the second least populous country in the world to come to your defense?