Do you not think that if Knibb turns up unaffected by her untimely DNF she will gap everyone on the bike and thus be able to run a steady 1:20 (aka lonely jog) to the win? As well as creating that gap up to and out of Ojen, her 70.3 MO is to send it in the last third (see Taupo) - I expect her to at the 55km point where the long climb starts, passing Miralmonte. Looking to the splits to show that. The last 18km is ‘all’ downhill so minimal deltas there.
I dont expect there will be any jogging going on, certainly not for competitive placings. Yes the profile of the bike course suits her, but I also feel many of the other ladies have closed that gap on the bike at this distance to her, and the runs have gotten faster. If the T100 races have taught us anything lately, it is that prior dominance is not an indication of present form. I mean how crazy would it have been to say just 6 months ago that Lucy would outrun Gentle, Waugh, Knibb, and every other fast running woman who does middle distance? Or ride with the lead group of uber bikers once caught on the bike? Kona is one thing, but when you condense down to a 4 hour race, all bets are off comparing to races that require proper and exact nutrition, where blow ups are a common thing..
Do you think she’s showing up unaffected?
Obviously idk but it’s reasonable to assume both Knibb and LCB have been given the OK by the medics, so physiologically they should be fine to exert themselves. One assumes that their prep after return to Co/Essex has been disrupted. They’ve both met their self-imposed threshold on go/no go to actually travel. I am surprised: I thought that taking to medium term view one or both would decide not worth the candle. I assume staying on the Dubai start list next week is a fall back if final decision is a DNS.
My best guess is that both of them, but particularly Knibb because she was so brave with no Reece to step in, will have instability, fragility and likely unseen a pace dilemma to confront on the bike after the turn uphill, and then again setting off on the first lap from T2. Paula was good on BwB.
We’ll see (well I won’t - I’ll be in the air) at the pre-race press conference what the vibe is.
With Knibb in particular I wonder just how much “speed” she has in her this year at the half distance. Not to go all “specificity” but just to imply, I think she’s likely “slowed down” and the other women have closed the gap to her at that half distance. But maybe she gets so far ahead that it’s irrelevant. I hope it’s a great race and all race it healthy and inspired and enjoy what looks to be a great venue.
No. There’s a chance after a lot of rest she ends up feeling great. There’s the obvious chance she struggles with the stress on her body.
Majorlene Pierre nearly collapsed and was stumbling around near the finish line but was able to walk it in if I recall for first place at the Long Distance championship in Ibiza a few years back and ran 3:56min/km. She raced the 70.3 Challenge Championship just two weeks later and ran 3:57min/km.
Knibb has 4 weeks of recovery to work with, not two. Not exactly the same thing, not the same athlete, etc. But not everyone turns into Emma Pallant-Browne or Johnny Brownlee.
Sure and I don’t want to get into a debate of who’s “collapse” was worse etc, everyone will handle it differently. I don’t think IM follows the same medical procedures that WT does.
Incidentally, listening to the press conference today, sounds like we got a good detailed answer from Knibb on the tests. I do wonder if she’s a bit too cavalier about MRIs and wanting them too frequently. But I’m the guy who opts out of the airport security scanner and doesn’t wear a mask, while she’s the polar opposite.
But I was interested in her comment on brain scans, and asking her doctor to look into it. She might be more cutting edge than her doctor on the research, but she was probably thinking about this recent study that showed an impact on marathoners brain fluid.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s42255-025-01244-7
It probably explains why sometimes many of us on this site feel our brains a bit foggy!
If I remember correctly, Taylor mentioned that her first liver function test came back a bit out of spec while the next one a week later was fine. That said, I’d wager that almost anyone who’d just completed a rigorous Ironman would have their liver enzymes slightly to significantly skewed if tested within a day or two of competition. What ever the case, I’m expecting one heck race this Saturday.
YMMV
Hugh
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Taylor seems to be in a very good head space. An excited Taylor will be fun to watch.