**Here’s the deal, I turned this thread into a “predict my time thread”. **
Read through the first couple of posts to get an idea of my training and reply with your estimate for my finishing chip time. I will be donating $100 to the winner’s favorite REAL charity.
My marathon is on 11/6 and the plan that I’m somewhat following (Pfitz) calls for me to run a race between 8k-10k this weekend. However, the only local race longer than a 5k this weekend is a 10 miler. I signed up for the race anyway.
Since this race is longer than 10k, and only 2 weeks before my marathon, how do I approach this race?
Do I:
A) Run it like any other race?
B) Run all 10 miles at marathon pace?
C) Run only 10k hard?
D) None of the above?
You’re 2 weeks out so you’ve got some recovery time. I’d run 5 or 6 miles at a harder pace…maybe 20 seconds per mile faster than MP… then finish it out at marathon pace. I’ll do runs similar to this to let my legs get tired and then finish out at MP to try and simulate those last few miles of the marathon.
By the way, this is if you used a plan with a fairly large mileage base (70mpw + plan). If you are only hitting 40 or 50 per week, perhaps it might not give you enough time to recover, only you can answer that. For me and my recovery, a 10 mile race (pretty much all out) is perfect. That is exactly what I look for; anything 15K to a half, though 15K preferred. It is a major stimulus to push the LT higher and gives you a nice number to calculate the theoretical “acheivable marathon time” using the projections from a variety of sources. I race it with tired legs so that the projection is conservative. Run it as hard as you can, but not so hard that you risk injury. 2 weeks of a solid taper should get you where you need to be.
10 miler at race pace won’t kill you. if you’re worried just do the middle 6 at MP. 2 up and 2 down. I personally would go race it and have fun, (racing is supposed to be fun!!!)
Thanks for all the replies. They’ve given me the confidence to just go out and race tomorrow. I will try to race the full 10 miles at about :20/mile below marathon pace. I’m going to treat it as a good hard workout 2 weeks and one day ahead of the marathon.
BTW, I have put in the miles this year. I’ve averaged over 71 miles per week since 8/8. Two weeks ago, I did a half marathon on Saturday and a 21 mile run on Sunday without any issues. This weekend will be a step down, 10 on Saturday and 16 on Sunday.
Just to close out the loop here, I took everyone’s advice and just ran the race.
In the first mile, I met up with another guy tapering for New York. He said that he planned to run 6:20’s for the first 7 and go from there. I decided to hitch a ride with him and see where it took me.
Well, I stayed with him until he picked up the pace at the 7 mile mark. I came home in 1:03:27, for a 6:21 pace. I’ll take it.
Now I just need to figure out what pace to shoot for in New York. I’m thinking of somewhere between 6:40 and 6:45.
Nice work!
From experience, I would say 6:40 pace might be a bit much.
Many guys I know (and me) have ran 60 min. for 10 miles and 6:15-20 pace for 13.1 (82-83 min), but struggled to break 3 in a marathon (even w 60 mile weeks).
When it comes to 26.2, I would start out pretty conservative. If 6:20 is what you do for 10 miles, 6:40 is pretty ambitious … Good luck! NY would be awesome to do some day.
Thanks for the post. I’ve been training all summer with the goal of going sub 3. After a good summer, I posted a 38:57 10k, a 1:03:27 10 miler and a 1:24:01 half marathon in the last 4 weeks. My McMilian numbers are coming in at 2:57:00
My only other marathons were done back in the mid '90’s. Chicago '94 in 2:57 and New York in '95 in 2:53. I’m going to be relying on those experiences and this year’s training to hit my goal. So, I’m going to definitely start out somewhere below 6:50 and hold on for dear life.
Even 6:45 seems ambitious to me based on the paces you reported and the NYC course. Your HM pace looks to be about 6:25ish right now, which all else equal would put you around 6:45 for the marathon. But NYC is a pretty slow course given the crowd size and bridges elevations. Maybe you’ve run NYC before and know the drill. But if not, position yourself as far up in the corral as you can based on the expected pace. Also, bring a ton of crappy warmups that you dont mind throwing away at the start. You’ll be waiting outdoors on Staten Island for ~4 hrs before race time and will want to keep warm. And you will not want to leave your start corral position to drop those throw-aways at the gear truck.
My bib # is 5346. That puts me in the first wave and the second corral behind the sub-elites. Hopefully that will help me clear the log jam pretty eary.
Maybe I should turn this thread into a predict my time one. I’ll even donate $100 the the winner’s favorite real charity. The winning prediction has to be on, or below my actual chip time.
Here’s my story on the 10k. My hamstring locked up at about the 4 mile mark. With the marathon still ahead, I did not push the last 2 miles of the race.
You’re gonna hate me but I’m going with a 3:08:35.
Sorry. NY isn’t fast, it could be blustery … and I’m an undertrained a jealous hater who can run 36 min 10ks but only ran two 3:04 marathons (and a few 3:20s).
I hope you prove me way wrong!
My bib # is 5346. That puts me in the first wave and the second corral behind the sub-elites. Hopefully that will help me clear the log jam pretty eary.
Maybe I should turn this thread into a predict my time one. I’ll even donate $100 the the winner’s favorite real charity. The winning prediction has to be on, or below my actual chip time.
Before I make my guess, can I ask you what your training and nutrition plan for the week leading up to the race is?